Tempo and how the track plays crucial in Easter Handicap
Tempo and how the Pukekohe track plays on its first big day of a new era could be crucial factors in deciding one of the toughest punting races of the season today.
The $120,000 Manco Easter is an old-fashioned handicap mile, which means bringing together a wide range of horses and formlines, as 1600m is the sweet spot where sprinters and middle distance horses meet.
That is one reason tempo is so important, as a fast-run mile tends to get to the bottom of the 1400m horses and favour the 2000m runners, whereas a dawdling middle section of a big handicap mile can favour the speedsters, who are usually on the pace, as they have more natural speed.
That equation, along with whether closer to the fence is an advantage, or the track ends up favouring the swoopers, could decide the race for which, on face value, Brando is a deserved favourite.
He was third in a Group 1 mile two starts ago and a brave second at Awapuni last start, albeit outpointed late by Germanicus, who came from behind him to finish over the top.
The pair meet again today, with Germanicus only 0.5kg worse off than he was last time out.
That makes the fact Brando is $4 and Germanicus $21 seem far too large a discrepancy, especially with the latter getting premiership-leading jockey Michael McNab on his back.
Even allowing for the fact Brando has always had a reputation and has the Mark Walker-Opie Bosson combo that punters love backing, one of the major factors in the price difference between the pair may be their draws.
Brando has barrier three and should settle in the first six, while Germanicus has barrier 15, albeit to start from around barrier 12.
Last time at Awapuni, they both started from wide draws and got similar runs.
Today, Brando should be handier, which is another reason the tempo and how the track plays will be crucial.
All things being equal, Brando looks to have a significant advantage, but if the track starts to favour swoopers late in the eight-race, then maybe Germanicus comes back on to a more level playing field.
Either way, Brando is the horse to beat and Germanicus the each way value in a race containing plenty of inform lightweight chances including Samiam Seussie, Tellall, Summer Passage and Clever Ruds.
On a day of big fields which should create plenty of opportunities for punters, the two other black-type races look no easier.
The Trelawney for late-season staying 3-year-olds doubles as an important trial for those with Queensland aspirations in the winter, and while Pinarello may be the most talented galloper in the race, his interrupted preparation is less than ideal.
With Ruach, Hoard The Bourbon,
Saint Bathans and Achieve and even the surprise fourth of the New Zealand Derby in Soldier Boy all in the right form to challenge, it looks a fun challenge for punters.
The Champagne Stakes is New Zealand’s only 1600m black-type juvenile race, and Waitak picks himself after finishing third to two fine fillies in the Group 1 Sires’ Produce at Awapuni last start, his natural racing pattern suggesting his wide draw won’t be insurmountable.
Today’s other domestic thoroughbred meeting sees a rare $100,000 race at Riccarton with the Canterbury Gold Cup, which Prise De Fer has chosen as his target over the Easter Handicap, for which he was also an acceptor, and he looks ideally suited by the weight-for-age conditions.