Finland set to reshape Europe security
Russia’s neighbour joining Nato would upend Putin’s plans
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has said stopping Nato’s expansion helped drive him to invade Ukraine. But yesterday, Finland declared its unequivocal intention to join, not only upending Putin’s plan but placing the alliance’s newest prospective member on Russia’s northern doorstep.
The declaration by Finland’s leaders that they will join Nato — with expectations that neighboring Sweden would soon do the same — could now reshape a strategic balance in Europe that has prevailed for decades. It is the latest example of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 11 weeks ago has backfired on Putin’s intentions.
Russia reacted angrily, with Putin’s chief spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, saying the addition of Finland and Sweden to Nato would not make Europe safer. Russia’s deputy United Nations ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy, appeared to go further, saying in an interview with a British news site he posted on Twitter that as Nato members, the two Nordic countries “become part of the enemy, and they bear all the risks.”
Finland, long known for such implacable non-alignment that ‘Finlandization” became synonymous with neutrality, had been signaling that Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine was giving the Finns a reason to join Nato. But yesterday was the first time Finland’s leaders said publicly they definitely intended to join, making it all but certain that Russia would share an 810-mile border with a Nato country.
The addition of Finland and Sweden to Nato carries significant risks of elevating prospects of war between Russia and the West, under the alliance’s principle that an attack on one is an attack on all.
But the Finnish leaders, President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin, said that “Nato membership would strengthen Finland’s security,” adding that “as a member of Nato, Finland would strengthen the entire defence alliance.”
Putin has offered a range of reasons for his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but it was intended in part to block the eastern expansion of Nato and was premised on what he apparently had assumed would be a fractious European response. Instead, the invasion has united the West and helped to isolate Moscow.
With the likely redrawing of Europe’s security borders, Western officials also moved to reshape Europe’s economic infrastructure by taking steps to establish new transport routes from Ukraine, which is under a Russian naval embargo. Russia, meanwhile, found itself further ostracized from the global economy as Siemens, the German electronics giant, became the latest company to pull out of Russia, exiting after 170 years of doing business there.
The European Union announced measures yesterday to facilitate Ukraine’s exports of blocked food products, mainly grain and oilseeds, in a bid to alleviate the war’s strain on the Ukrainian economy and avert a global food shortage.
The Russian navy has blocked exports by Ukraine — a major global supplier of wheat, corn and sunflower oil before the invasion — at the country’s Black Sea ports. The longterm goal of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, is to establish new transport routes from Ukraine into Europe, circumventing the Russian blockade by using Polish ports — although creating new routes could take months, if not years.
The announcement by Finland’s leaders to apply for membership in NATO had been widely expected. Public opinion in Finland has shifted significantly in favor of joining the alliance, from 20 per cent six months ago to nearly 80 per cent now, especially if Sweden, Finland’s strategic partner and also militarily nonaligned, joins as well.
“Finland must apply for Nato membership without delay,” the Finnish leaders said in a statement. “We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days.”
A parliamentary debate and vote were expected Monday.
The debate in Sweden is less advanced than in Finland, but Sweden, too, is moving toward applying to join Nato, perhaps as early as next week.
Putin has cited Nato’s spread eastward into Russia’s sphere of influence, including to former Soviet states on its borders, as a national threat. He has used Ukraine’s desire to join the alliance to help justify his invasion of that country, though Western officials have repeatedly said that the possibility of Ukrainian membership remains remote.
One reason is that Nato would be highly unlikely to offer membership to a country entangled in a war.
If Ukraine were to become a Nato member, the alliance would be obligated to defend it against Russia and other adversaries, in keeping with the application of Nato’S Article 5 that an attack on one member is an attack on the entire alliance.
Even without the geopolitical risks, Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that has struggled with endemic corruption since gaining independence, would find it difficult to meet several necessary requirements to join Nato, including the need to demonstrate a commitment to the rule of law.
Sweden and Finland, in contrast, have developed over decades into vibrant and healthy liberal democracies.
Still, Nato members would have to act if Finland and Sweden were attacked by Russia or others, raising the risks of a direct confrontation between nuclear powers.
Putin was likely to try to rally support for the Ukraine invasion by portraying the moves by Finland and Sweden as fresh evidence that Nato is growing increasingly hostile.
If Finland and Sweden apply, they are widely expected to be approved, although Nato officials are publicly discreet, saying only that the alliance has an open-door policy and any country that wishes to join can request an invitation. Still, even a speedy application process could take a year, raising concerns that the two countries would be vulnerable to Russia while outside the alliance.