Diplomatic dance in the Pacific
China’s diplomatic dance with Pacific Island nations may be stepping on rivals’ toes but it’s also a warning to New Zealand and allies that they need to sharpen their moves.
Australia’s new Government has been quick to hit the floor with Foreign Minister Penny Wong flying on two trips to the islands before she’s even got used to her desk.
Senator Wong visited Fiji last week and Samoa and Tonga this week, and announced initiatives to help Samoa, including the donation of a patrol boat, even as her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi was wrapping up his eightnation tour.
Wang was unable to get 10 countries to accept a regionwide pact on security, free trade, fisheries, digital operations and policing. But the foreign minister will return to Beijing with bilateral deals on fisheries, infrastructure and trade.
Wong’s visits to Pacific neighbours and initial statements as minister clearly had an element of introducing herself as the representative of Australia’s new government. But they do signal a desire to be responsive to the region and the impact of climate change on its countries. She said Australia “will listen because we care what the Pacific has to say”.
Here, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta has taken a relaxed view of China’s whirlwind diplomacy.
She said: “We don’t take the relationship with the Pacific for granted at all . . . We are not defined by China and the way that they are conducting their relationship. In fact, we’ve built our relationship over a long period of time with the Pacific
. . . We don’t need to react in a way that makes us look desperate about the relationship.”
There’s a balance to be struck between an overreaction to Beijing out of fear of what China might intend and a business-as-usual approach. The transtasman neighbours may now need to take the initiative and be more on-the-ball with practical assistance — to help Pacific countries help themselves.
If Australia and New Zealand want to promote stability — in political, economic, and security areas — then a more consistently visible presence in the Pacific is likely required as Oceania attracts more strategic attention.
Australia and New Zealand have traditional and family ties with populations in the region, and have a long-proven ability to provide the most aid and extra help in a disaster.
Their Five Eyes partner, the US, has over the past year been focused on China’s potential as a security challenge with the Aukus pact and Quad forum. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s message to the US during her visit was to get more involved as an economic power in the Asia-Pacific region.
China, as the country with the deepest pockets in the region, has long cultivated relationships with island nations through on-the-ground development projects. Its scrapped draft deal in the Pacific included police training, biometrics, trade arrangements and scholarships.
If Australia and New Zealand want to promote stability — in political, economic, and security areas — then a more consistently visible presence in the Pacific is likely required as Oceania attracts more strategic attention.
Pacific nations wanting ongoing investment in areas such as agriculture and fisheries may believe China is the best bet to add infrastructure value and bring prosperity — but it also might lead to reliance and debt.
Still, individual Pacific countries may find some offered Chinese deals useful. The US, Australia and New Zealand should be innovative about their own contributions.
Worldwide, China is the master of using trade and investment to deepen ties and interdependence with other countries. Its Belt and Road Initiative spans 140 countries.
There has been some disquiet among Pacific leaders over the region’s new spotlight. Fiji’s Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama tweeted: “The Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focused on power.”
The region finally has China and America’s attention and some Pacific countries would be sensing a chance to use the great power rivalry as a bargaining chip for more investment.
It could be a case of be careful what you wish for. Having two giants circling each other here could turn into a dangerous geopolitical dance down the track.