Will political gravity catch up with Boris?

Last weekend’s outpouring of patriotism in the United Kingdom during the Queen’s jubilee celebrations should have given Britain’s Prime Minister a bonus bounce of popularity.

Instead, Boris Johnson was booed by onlookers at a jubilee event and this week faced an internal party ballot of no confidence — surviving a large rebellion by 211 to 148 votes, with 41 per cent of his own MPs wanting him out.

Despite that reprieve some pundits don’t give his long-term chances of political survival much hope. Public disapproval and lack of trust in Johnson is showing in the polls.

Johnson is promising policy changes, defiantly saying that “absolutely nothing and no-one” was going to stop his team from getting on with it. One Opposition MP likened the PM to Monty Python’s delusional Black Knight.

Johnson, previously in his element on the campaign trail, has never seemed the right fit for dealing with serious crises in government.

The pandemic, strains on the health system, the impact of the Ukraine war, the cost of living crisis, bad judgement calls, incompetence, and scandals have left him a diminished figure. Those cuts are not just flesh wounds.

Rather like former Australian leader, Scott Morrison, an emotional issue has caused a lot of damage to Johnson’s standing with the public. For Morrison it was his handling of the 2020 bushfires and a holiday getaway. For Johnson it was parties on government premises amid Covid-19 restrictions.

In both instances, the public gained the impression that suffering and sacrifice were one-sided.

YouGov’s tracking polls show: 61 per cent disapproval for the Government; 69 per cent saying Johnson is doing badly as PM; and 63 per cent saying the economy is the most important issue, with 34 per cent picking health. In its most recent opinion poll Labour was ahead of the Conservatives by 39 to 31 per cent. In just a couple of weeks Johnson faces the test of two byelections.

And the Conservatives face that old political dilemma: hold on to a tainted leader and potentially sink with the ship at the next election, or ditch him and embed someone new with time to make a positive impression.

Morrison’s Liberal-led Coalition followed through with him to the election and lost. The result suggested that once disapproval with a leader and government becomes widespread, promises to the public that the existing line-up can change for the better are a too-hard-sell.

The Tories have a history of dispatching leaders they consider to have outlived their usefulness, including Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May who resigned under pressure after support from her MPs fell away.

Rejuvenation is necessary in any party and the Conservatives have been highly successful at winning British elections. The Tony Blair/ Gordon Brown era (1997-2010) is an island of success for Labour in a blue sea of Tory victories over the past 43 years. Johnson still has until May 2024 to call an election.

This time, though, Labour has a steady frontman in Keir Starmer, who may be able to form an agreement for support from minor parties after the next election. The Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP have about 24 per cent combined in polling.

Brexit and Johnson’s leadership strongly suggest that political reform is needed in the UK, with a change from first-past-the-post to a proportional system for more stability, co-operation and representation. At present, the PM can simply stay in office for the next two years and dare his MPs to throw him out.

It seems likely that Johnson won’t be gone anytime soon.

Firstly, there’s his attitude. Politico reported that one Tory MP said: “He never left any of his wives — they always ended up divorcing him. It’s the same with No. 10. He’ll never leave of his own accord. The party will have to kick him out.”

Secondly, so far there’s been no major resignations, or Cabinet reshuffle, or attempt to change the party rule to allow a second vote on Johnson’s leadership within 12 months.

The global economic outlook, climate change challenges and tense geopolitical situation make governing difficult for any country’s leader and ruling party. They all face strong headwinds. Tory MPs are likely to be calculating that an early election or handing the top job to someone with a much lower profile than Johnson could backfire badly.

And there’s no clear favourite to take over with the next most senior figure, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, losing poll approval as inflation bites.

Johnson has a way of wading through disaster only to emerge seemingly unstoppable and unscathed. The question is whether political gravity will finally catch up with him.