Why Trump won’t be indicted
Is the January 6 Capitol riot investigation ultimately a futile exercise? Will anyone other than the foot soldiers in the attack on the United States Congress be made accountable?
Is there any chance the evidence uncovered will push prosecutors towards sending former President Donald Trump to court?
Such questions and the hum of election politics lurk in the background as the House of Representatives select committee conducts its hearings.
The bipartisan group — seven Democrats and two Republicans — has been investigating the events of January 6, 2021, in Washington for a year and has conducted hundreds of interviews.
The panel is now presenting its findings to the public at an important time for the US, politically and economically.
The Midterm congressional elections are just over four months away and a swing against the Democrats, the party in power, is likely because of the cost of living crisis.
The Republicans hold a slight lead in voter preference for Congress.
And Trump himself could soon announce another bid for the presidency in 2024.
The choice on the right could eventually be between the old bull and a younger version — Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 43.
While US unemployment is at a near record-low 3.6 per cent, inflation is at a 40-year high of 8.6 per cent.
In common with other countries, fuel and food prices are high and there have been supply chain blockages thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine.
President Joe Biden has struggled to get his agenda enacted because of a Senate stalemate and is on a 41 per cent job approval rating, according to Gallup.
The Democratic party has an enthusiasm deficit with its traditional voters.
The Republicans are still largely in thrall to Trumpism.
Party critics of the former leader have been shunned, subjected to primaries, or plan to retire.
The House committee features arguably the two bravest politicians the party has — Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, both Trump opponents.
It’s against this background that the House investigators are presenting their case:
● That Trump’s false claims about the 2020 presidential election directly resulted in his supporters’ actions on January 6
● Trump was widely told by officials and aides that he had lost the election
● He ignored advisers who told him claims of election fraud were unfounded
● Trump and his allies raised hundreds of millions of dollars for an election “defence fund”
● He pushed ahead with a plan to pressure vice-president Mike Pence into not certifying Biden’s win in Congress, knowing it was unlawful
● And Trump told supporters at a rally before the riot that he hoped Pence would refuse to certify Biden’s victory.
The committee can send a nonbinding recommendation to the Justice Department which is undertaking its own investigation.
Committee members appear to be arguing there could be grounds for prosecutors to bring a case against Trump over the election procedure. Cheney said: “President Trump had no factual basis for what he was doing and he had been told it was illegal.”
Another panel member Adam Schiff said: “Once the evidence is accumulated by the Justice Department, it needs to make a decision about whether it can prove to a jury beyond a reasonable doubt the President’s guilt or anyone else’s. But they need to be investigated if there’s credible evidence, which I think there is.”
Should Democratic appointee Attorney-General Merrick Garland actually take the unprecedented step of indicting a former Republican president, it would be a legal and political bombshell.
That’s especially so considering Trump is actively endorsing Midterm candidates and is potentially a future presidential candidate for his party.
Throughout Biden’s term so far, the Democratic leadership has avoided dramatic moves to advance domestic priorities — on issues such as abortion, the Build Back Better plan, policing, and voting rights — in the face of an opposition keen to resist where it can, with the aid of conservative senators in the president’s own party.
The situation will only worsen for Biden if the Republicans take back control of Congress in November. The differences between the parties’ approaches to politics has many Democrats frustrated.
It seems unlikely that the Democratic leadership, focused on restoring stability and governing norms after the Trump years, would risk further upheaval by indicting a former president.