Nato sends message as Moscow fumes

Alliance has ‘responsibility’ to keep war from spilling into other countries

We live in a more dangerous world and we live in a more unpredictable world.

Jens Stoltenberg, Nato Secretary-General

An unstable world could get even more dangerous if Nato does not remain strong and united, the head of the alliance said yesterday at the end of a summit where Western leaders labelled Russia “a direct threat” to the security of their nations.

During their three-day meeting in Madrid, Nato members confronted a geopolitical landscape marked by bigpower competition and myriad threats, from cyberattacks to climate change.

The leaders cast their sights around the world — drawing a rebuke after accusing China of posing “serious challenges ” to global stability.

But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated the summit and while Nato nations remain united, strains have emerged as the cost of energy and other essential goods has skyrocketed, partly because of the war and tough Western sanctions on Russia.

There also are tensions over how the war will end and what, if any, concessions Ukraine should make.

“We live in a more dangerous world and we live in a more unpredictable world, and we live in a world where we have a hot war going on in Europe,” Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. “At the same time, we also know that this can get worse.”

That is why the Western military alliance has a “core responsibility” to keep the war in Ukraine from spilling into other countries while making clear to Moscow that it would “protect every inch of Nato territory”, Stoltenberg said.

That territory is set to grow. At the summit, Nato leaders formally invited Finland and Sweden to join the alliance, after striking an agreement to end opposition from Turkey.

However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he could still block the Nordic countries’ membership, if the Nordic pair did not keep their promises.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned he would respond in kind if Sweden or Finland agreed to host Nato troops and military infrastructure.

Putin declared that Russia would have to “create the same threats for the territory from which threats against us are created”.

However, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said Putin’s threats were “nothing new”.

“Of course, we have to expect some kind of surprises from Putin, but I doubt that he is attacking Sweden or Finland directly,” Kallas said.

Nato leaders turned their gaze south for a final summit session yesterday focused on Africa’s Sahel region and the Middle East, where political instability — aggravated by climate change and food insecurity sparked by the war in Ukraine — is driving large numbers of migrants toward Europe.

The era of stockpiling

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine along with his blockade of the country’s Black Sea ports has removed millions of tonnes of grain from global circulation, meaning options for importdependent countries are few and far between.

Between them, Russia and Ukraine had accounted for 30 per cent of the world’s wheat, 23 per cent of its barley and more than half of traded sunflower oil.

Ukraine alone supplied 15 per cent of the world’s maize, and Russia 13 per cent of the world’s corn exports.

The suspension of exports from Ukraine and Russia has disrupted global markets and pushed food prices to record highs — the global price of wheat has surged by over 50 per cent since the war began, for example.

This has lead some countries to start stockpiling food.

As supplies are squeezed, countries are now racing to ban exports and secure food for their own populations at the expense of overseas trade, compounding food inflation and ushering in a new era of stockpiling.

“Wheat production in Russia and Ukraine is going to continue to be disrupted by the conflict for at least another year, this isn’t a short-term thing,” said Dr Prachi Agarwal, a senior researcher at ODI, a global affairs think tank in London.

“Stockpiling is going to continue and is likely to trigger a domino effect. We saw this with Indonesia banning palm oil and Malaysia following with chicken.

“It just motivates other countries to behave in a similar way.”

India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, is one of the main stockpiling offenders.

Delhi has announced it will stockpile its supplies of wheat, reduce exports of sugar and save several ongoing small shipments for its south Asian neighbours.