Turmoil as hunt on for new ABs coach
Foster left to flounder as historic timeline tossed out by NZR even though Robertson has nowhere to go
New Zealand Rugby will dispense with its historic timeline of waiting until after the World Cup to determine the next All Blacks coach, and will instead, within the next eight to ten weeks, reveal who will take charge of the national team in 2024.
Chief executive Mark Robinson has presented a recommendation that the process to find the next All Blacks coach begin this month, and the unprecedented plan signed off on February 23 when the board n meets.
NZR has declined to comment but incumbent coach Ian Foster has been made aware of his employer’s intention and the rationale, which according to multiple sources is based on a desire to bring New Zealand into line with the other tier one nations, the majority of whom will be at the World Cup later this year with certainty around their longer-term coaching plan.
So, too, has the determination been made that an early process will mitigate against candidates being picked off by other international sides, as happened in 2019.
But while these two arguments made sense even as recently as late November last year, they don’t stand up to scrutiny now that England, Australia and Wales fired their coaches.
All three nations were forced by underperformance to address their coaching, and when they made the decision to fire their incumbents nine months before the World Cup, they had to offer long-term contracts to secure replacements.
England, Australia and Wales were not following well-considered strategic plans based on a principle of best practice, but instead made hurried decisions that reflected their dissatisfaction, rubbishing any notion that New Zealand would somehow be presenting itself as a high-performance backwater by leaving its appointment process until after the World Cup.
The knock-on effect of Australia, England and Wales having made long-term appointments is that it has alleviated the prospect of losing possible candidates such as Scott Robertson and Jamie Joseph to other roles.
Ireland have their head coach Andy Farrell locked in beyond the World Cup, and France and South Africa would not entertain hiring a foreign coach, leaving Scotland as the only genuine tier one nation possibly in the market for a head coach to take over in 2024.
A few months ago, the prospect of losing Robertson to a rival nation was real, but not now. There isn’t anywhere for him to go and so again the rationale that NZR is battling market forces and under pressure to make an early decision about its next All Blacks coach doesn’t have any evidential basis to support it.
It is understood Leon MacDonald, who would be part of Robertson’s group, has an offer to join Scotland, and both the Blues — where he’s head coach — and Crusaders, are agitating NZR for clarity about the timing of the All Blacks process so they can make succession plans if necessary.
But again, none of this stacks up as heavyweight leverage, as Robertson has already signalled this will be his last season at the Crusaders, and the Blues might have to accept that the importance of getting the next All Blacks coaching appointment right is more important than offering them the early certainty they want.
If anything, the decision to hold the process in the next two months narrows the field as it effectively eliminates Foster and his assistants, Joe Schmidt and Jason Ryan, from being seen as genuine candidates.
Foster has amassed a win ratio of
69 per cent since he took the job in
2020, but performances and results have improved since last August, when he brought in Ryan and Schmidt as assistants.
However, given the way the team has struggled since 2020 and the public and media opprobrium that has surfaced in the past three years, it’s impossible to imagine NZR being willing to tell the New Zealand rugby public in April that after a competitive process, Foster has been granted another two years at the helm.
But if the process was delayed until later in the year, the incumbent group would at least have had the opportunity to be judged on their World Cup campaign and potentially depending on what happens in France.
Foster could be a genuine contender to be evaluated against Joseph, Robertson and any other prospect who surfaces, which could include Vern Cotter, who challenged Steve Hansen for the role in 2011 and is back on the market having unexpectedly quit his role with Fiji this week.
But where the logic of NZR’s go-early decision is most challenged is in the likely negative impact it will have on the All Blacks in World Cup year.
Three scenarios now exist for Foster, none of which serve the team well. He can apply to retain his job beyond his current contract which expires at the end of this year, not get it, and then remain at the helm of the
All Blacks knowing his employer hasn’t backed him. This doesn’t fit the All Blacks narrative of leading the world in rugby excellence and will be easy fodder for rival coaches to exploit through the media.
Or he can not apply to retain his job and go to France in similar circumstances — as a place-holder coach who could win the World Cup and yet still be forced to exit.
The third scenario — and the most unlikely — is that he applies for and wins a contract extension, inevitably inviting public scorn and more intense media scrutiny on the team. None of these three scenarios are conducive to producing stable highperformance environments and giving the All Blacks the singular focus they need in a World Cup year.