Problems pile up in lame duck season

Akey question hanging over President Donald Trump has changed from whether he will go quietly to just how crazy will it get before he does.

The lame duck period between US administrations always has the potential for disruption.

Other countries update their calculations on what will happen under the new regime. Some want to send messages and warnings. It can be seen as a time for doing or planning actions while the US is in electoral limbo.

This time the incoming leader is getting more pushback than cooperation from the outgoing one. A few more degrees of difficulty are being added to President-elect Joe Biden’s Herculean tasks.

Republican claims of voter fraud, election-stealing, and a lack of federal interest in providing immediate pandemic aid to citizens will make it hard for Biden to receive any honeymoon bounce with the public at home. Biden is already facing the prospect of dealing with a Republican-controlled Senate, unless the Democrats can pick up two seats in Georgia in January.

Overseas, he will find it harder to make progress on tough issues.

The assassination of a top scientist in Iran appears to be an attempt to sink any relaunch of the Obama administration’s nuclear deal that Trump has spent years sabotaging. Biden wants to drop sanctions that Trump imposed, if Tehran returns to the strict rules of the pact.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considers Iran an implacable threat, saying “there must be no return to the previous nuclear agreement”.

There have been recent attacks on Iran in apparent attempts to provoke and weaken the regime and degrade its capabilities. And Trump, after the US election, reportedly considered missile strikes on Iran. Any strong reaction from Iran now would give Trump the chance to let loose without having to deal with the consequences himself. It makes more sense for Iran to bide its time even as it is firing up its rhetoric.

Closer to home, Australia’s relations with China remain stuck in a chilly bin long after Canberra sought a probe into the origin of the pandemic.

Wine has been added to the list of Australian goods effectively barred from China’s markets. Antidumping tariffs of up to 212 per cent have been imposed on Australian wine imports. It makes New Zealand’s own export tightrope seem a bit thinner.

The trade war once again shows China using its economic clout for political influence but it is already pushing regional neighbours into closer defence cooperation and will likely result in export rethinks.

The arrival of a more multilateral-inclined US administration will accelerate the reassessments of relations with China occurring in other countries. —