Pandemic aftershocks on the way

US intel says Covid impact to extend to rivalry and unrest

The effects of the coronavirus pandemic are expected to contribute over the next year to “humanitarian and economic crises, political unrest, and geopolitical competition”, according to a new intelligence report that also warns about the threats from foreign adversaries and from violent extremists inside the United States.

The US Government’s annual assessment of worldwide threats, released yesterday ahead of congressional hearings expected to cover similar territory, charts a broad array of potential dangers anticipated by the intelligence community over the coming year. Its grim assessment of diverse threats echoes in some ways the conclusions of a separate intelligence report from last week that examined likely global challenges, including related to the pandemic, over the next 20 years.

“The American people should know as much as possible about the threats facing our nation and what their intelligence agencies are doing to protect them,” Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, said in a statement accompanying yesterday’s report.

The report raises concern over the lingering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has killed nearly three million people worldwide, warning of the ways in which the recovery will “strain governments and societies”.

The pandemic has already disrupted crucial health services in certain areas of the world and will lead to continued health emergencies, and it has raised tensions as countries compete for advantage, according to the report. The economic fallout in developing countries has been especially severe, with food insecurity worldwide at its highest point in more than a decade, intelligence officials say.

“No country has been completely spared, and even when a vaccine is widely distributed globally, the economic and political aftershocks will be felt for years,” the report says.

The document focuses significant attention on threats from foreign countries, though those concerns are largely already known and frequently discussed.

China, the document warns, is likely to continue its efforts to spread its influence and undercut US power, and is likely to press Taiwan to move towards unification with the mainland. Russia is likely to continue developing its military and cyber capabilities while also seeking “opportunities for pragmatic cooperation with Washington on its own terms”.

North Korea remains committed to nuclear power and poses an increasing risk to the US and to the region. Iran, too, presents a threat despite its weakening economy through both its conventional and unconventional military strategies, including its network of proxies.

This year’s report was released against the backdrop of national security emergencies that have captured the Government’s attention and resources. Two major cyber breaches, one by suspected Russian hackers targeting federal agencies and the other affecting Microsoft Exchange email software, have exposed vulnerabilities in the public and private sectors’ cyber defences. And the deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol laid bare the threat posed by violent extremists in America.

The report sees four foreign adversaries — Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — as posing the greatest cybersecurity concerns. China is capable of cyber operations that at minimum can cause temporary and local disruptions to critical infrastructure in the US while Russia “almost certainly considers cyber attacks an acceptable option to deter adversaries, control escalation, and prosecute conflicts,” according to the document.

Inside the US, domestic extremists motivated by feelings of white racial superiority and anti-government grievances pose an elevated threat, the report says.

“Violent extremists who promote the superiority of the white race have been responsible for at least 26 lethal attacks that killed more than 141 people and for dozens of disrupted plots in the West since 2015,” according to the document.

Haines and other US officials, including CIA Director William Burns and FBI Director Christopher Wray, are expected to testify this week about threats facing the world.