So much must change in 2023
NZ cannot put all its eggs in the same basket and expect the results to be different
The country has not got enough eggs. Our dairy could not get enough bread. Since ancient Rome, food shortages are a way to lose popularity.
This time next year, Christopher Luxon will be prime minister.
Labour has fallen to 33 per cent in the polls. Labour cannot win with a third of the vote. Labour will lose all the electorates it picked up last election.
National will reach 40 per cent; Luxon will overtake Jacinda Ardern as preferred prime minister. The election will be a landslide to the centre-right.
To win, Labour would have to suspend Parliament, illegally put Opposition MPs into home detention, close magazines, commandeer the airwaves for government announcements, have the Reserve Bank flood the economy with printed money and have a massive taxpayerfunded advertising campaign. Would the Government do that again?
The Greens appear to be avoiding the third-party curse. Third parties in coalitions usually get hammered. With no climate-change policy wins, and having tried to trash our constitutional conventions, the Greens are vulnerable.
In every election there is a new party. In the Australian election it was the Teal Greens. A new party that is not socialist but which is focused on climate change could do very well.
With John Tamihere applying his organising talents, and with some good candidates, the Mā ori Party will win more Mā ori seats.
Hamilton West indicates none of the anti-vax parties will make 5 per cent.
Winston Peters will not be the kingmaker. For his own selfish reasons, he gave us this Labour Government.
ACT will do well. ACT is centreright voters’ insurance that National in government will not continue with Labour’s woke policies.
2023 will be challenging. Next winter, the health system will be overwhelmed. School pupils will continue to vote with their feet. With 45,000 active P users, no neighbourhood will be crime-free.
Co-governance is unworkable. Centralisation cannot deliver the promised results. The polytechnic reorganisation, the broadcasting amalgamation, and trying to run health from Wellington will be a series of trainwrecks.
Election year is no time to implement a massive compulsory unemployment insurance scheme — the job tax. Labour may postpone or just pass the legislation and make it an election issue.
The Reserve Bank’s predictions have been wildly inaccurate. Its forecasts for 2023 will be no more accurate. The size of the wage increases alone means inflation will be well above the Bank’s target.
Grant Robertson says he will be prudent. He will go on borrowing and spending.
New Zealand is a small, open economy. What happens overseas has great impact. At any time, an overseas shock can put this country into a recession.
China is our biggest trading partner, and second only to Australia for tourists. Economists underestimated how fast the world would rebound from Covid. Economists are again underestimating how fast the
Chinese economy will rebound and its impact. The return of Chinese tourists will be boost cities like Rotorua.
When one adjusts for inflation, Christmas spending is down, but with such strong employment, New Zealand is not in a recession. The Reserve Bank is probably wrong again. We may not have a recession in 2023.
2023 will reveal there has been fundamental change. New Zealand has always been a destination of choice for immigrants. Not any more.
InterNations surveyed immigrants’ experiences. Out of 52 nations, New Zealand was ranked the second-worst country. Only Kuwait is worse. Immigrants are shocked by our cost of living and low pay. Immigrants tell me our schools, health system and crime were unpleasant surprises.
The Government treated new residents appallingly. During Covid, parents were split from their children for years.
The biggest advertisement for immigration is the immigrants’ experience. Today, they are saying “Do not come”. Many are planning to leave. My dentist has already left.
Labour is dropping the immigration criteria, but is failing to attract immigrants we need. Not only are we failing to attract the skills we need, but skilled Kiwis are leaving. Those who are staying are the ones our schools failed to teach. New Zealand is de-skilling.
Interest rates are not the only driver of house prices. Housing, like everything else, is supply and demand. There will be no return to pre-Covid immigration. In the year to March 2020, there was a gain of 91,700 people. This year, permanent departures will largely cancel out immigration.
With record new house completions, house prices must fall. This loss of wealth will be devastating for households.
Internationally, the war in Ukraine will dominate. Wars are won by logistics and economics. The Russian economy is the same size as Australia. The US Congress has voted to fund Ukraine for 2023. Russia is relying on North Korea and Iran. Russia knows it cannot win. Hopefully in 2023, we may see an end to this senseless war.
Richard Prebble is a former Labour Party minister and ACT Party leader. He currently holds a number of
directorships.