Aviation and destiny
For millennia, the dream of flying like the birds in the sky dominated the imagination of visionaries, inventors, shamans, madmen and cranks. Leonardo da Vinci, the greatest genius of all time, used to tie the wings of dead birds on his hands in the vain attempt to fly. As far back as the sixteenth century, he left behind several designs that look uncannily like the aircrafts and spaceships that we know today.
Socrates, the greatest of all the philosophers, opined: “Man must rise above the Earth—to the top of the atmosphere and beyond—for only thus will he fully understand the world in which he lives”.
The Wrights brothers, made their first successful flight on 17 December, 1903. The first trans-atlantic commercial flight was in June 1939. Aviation today is a major pillar of the world economy; employing 87.7 million people and contributing $ 2.7 trillion, about 3.4% of global GDP. It is critical for global logistics chains, trade and tourism.
However, it also contributes 2 percent to global CO2S emissions. Competition is cut-throat. Cheaper, no-frills airlines like Easyjet and Ryanair have stiffened the competition. Covid-19 and the unprecedented global lockdown has been a disaster for the industry; incurring over $344 billion losses and43 airline bankruptcies.
But stakeholders remain bullish. IATA, the global industry regulator, has projected growth of174 percent over the next 20 years, with a staggering 9.4 billion passenger journeys by 2037. The investor, Warren Buffett, who rarely makes a wrong move, has increased his stakes in the sector.
Technology has become a force for creative disruption in global aviation. A new generation of hybrid supersonic planes are being designed to take- over from the defunct Anglo-french Concorde. Tesla, the company owned by the entrepreneurial genius, Elon Musk, has recently tested a new electric aircraft. Unmanned Aircraft Systems are on the cards. The ICT revolution and blockchain offer capacity to deploy Big Data to enhance efficiencies and safety. According to IATA, from 2035 there will be “revolutionary” new aircraft, propulsion systems, strut- braced wings, hybrid, and battery-electric aircraft.
The first commercial flight into Nigeria arrived Kano 95 years ago, on 1 November, 1925. Today, there are 32 airports and several private airstrips in Nigeria. There are five international airports (Lagos, Abuja, Kano, Port Harcourt and Enugu), and state-owned such as Asaba, Uyo, Gombe, Dutse and Jalingo. Several more are being planned. Lagos is our principal aviation hub (others being Abuja, Port Harcourt and Kano). There are 23 active domestic airlines. We also have 554 licensed pilots, 913 engineers and 1,700 cabin personnel. The sector accounts for nearly 200,000 jobs.
Our air transport market tripled in size between 2004 and 2007, thanks to the macroeconomic and institutional reforms of the Obasanjo years. Today, passenger traffic averages over 12 million annually, second only to South Africa on the continent; contributing 4 percent to national GDP.
In fairness, the current administration has done a lot for aviation. Budgetary allocation for 2021 is
N89.9 billion. There is a plan to double the number of airports from 31 to 62 by 2023. New major infrastructure projects are being planned for Anambra, Benue, Ekiti, Nasarawa, Ebonyi and Gombe, while existing airports such as Kebbi and Dutse are going to be refurbished. Recently, some quality infrastructures have successfully been implemented: the concessioning of MM2 in Lagos; the new wing at the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport and the refurbishment of Enugu and Makurdi airports. All well and good.
But there are challenges. Low capacity-utilisation; absence of a National Carrier; poor maintenance of culture; absence of multimodal connectivity; absence of Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (MRO) facilities; poor inter-agency coordination and a weak regulatory regime. But critical challenges remain. Investors are discouraged by the legal altercations, which accompanied the concessioning of MM2. More thinking is needed in crafting the business model for a new national carrier. The delay in concessioning the other airports is leading to greater uncertainty. Training and capacity remain big challenges for the sector, including weak administrative capacity and collusive rent-seeking behaviour.
The 2014 National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIMP) emphasizes transportation and estimates US$3 trillion as the funds needed to bridge the infrastructure gap over the next 30 years.
The critical success factors for aviation infrastructure delivery include the following: good project definition and a sound business case; appropriate choice of project strategy; strong stakeholder and higher management support. Also, availability of sufficient funds/other resources; firm control of changes to the authorized project; application of a design-build project delivery methodology that focuses on contractual obligations and accountability for results; streamlining procurement processes, including use of e-procurement; commitment to sustainability in finance, safety and ecology.
We can learn from the American Next Generation of Air Transportation Systems (NGATS); a programme managed by the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), which drives innovation and modernization in U.S. aviation.
I propose creation of a Joint Aviation Strategic Initiative ( JASI), a private-public sector platform to be chaired by the Honourable Minister of Aviation. Its role would be to think outside the box and to draw up a 30-year Strategic Plan for Next Generation aviation. JASI should address how we can build manufacturing capacity in aircraft and its value chain, in addition to developing a vibrant aviation and aerospace militaryindustrial complex.
Nigerian aviation has potentials to contribute up to 10 percent to national GDP and to become a key employer of labour. Further reforms are key to further unlocking the sector. Benchmarking against emerging market players such as Ethiopia, Singapore, UAE and Qatar would help.
The famous French aviator, Antoine de Saint-exupery, once remarked, “I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things.” Our destiny is to be a great nation. Reaching that ideal requires mastery of the skies. To quote Nelson Mandela: “It always seems impossible until it is done!”
(Text of a Lecture Delivered at a Retreat for the Federal Ministry of Aviation, Organised by the Savannah Centre, at Ibom Hotel and Resort, Uyo, 8—11 February, 2021).
Training and capacity remain big challenges for the sector, including weak administrative capacity and collusive rent-seeking behaviour
Dr. Mailafia is a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, a development economist and public finance expert with a Dphil from Oxford obmailafia@gmail.com; 08036590990 (text messages only)