March domestic demand sees upsurge but international travel still largely shutdown

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that passenger traffic fell in March 2021 compared to PRE-COVID levels (March 2019) but rose compared to the immediate month prior (February 2021).

Because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted all comparisons are to March 2019, which followed a normal demand pattern.

Total demand for air travel in March 2021 (measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKS) was down 67.2 percent compared to March 2019. That was an improvement over the 74.9 percent decline recorded in February 2021 versus February 2019. The better performance was driven by gains in domestic markets, particularly China. International traffic remained largely restricted.

International passenger demand in March was 87.8 percent below March 2019, a very small improvement from the 89.0 percent decline recorded in February 2021 versus two years ago.

Total domestic demand was down 32.3 percent versus pre-crisis levels (March 2019), greatly improved over February 2021, when domestic traffic was down 51.2 percent versus the 2019 period. All markets except Brazil and India showed improvement compared to February 2021, with China being the key contributor, as already noted.

“The positive momentum we saw in some key domestic markets in March is an indication of the strong recovery we are anticipating in international markets as travel restrictions are lifted. People want and need to fly. And we can be optimistic that they will do so when restrictions are removed,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’S Director-general.

African airlines’ traffic sank 73.7 percent in March versus March two years ago, marking a deterioration compared to a 72.3 percent decline recorded in February compared to February 2019. March capacity contracted 61.8 percent versus March 2019, and load factor fell 22.3 percentage points to 49.0percent.

Asia- Pacific airlines’ March international traffic was down 94.8 percent compared to March 2019, barely better than the 95.4 percent decline registered in February 2021 versus February 2019. The region continued to suffer from the steepest traffic declines for a ninth consecutive month. Capacity was down 87.0 percent and the load factor sank 48.6 percentage points to 31.9 percent, the lowest among regions.

European carriers recorded an 88.3 percent decline in traffic in March versus March 2019, just slightly ahead of the 89.1 percent decline in February compared to the same month in 2019. Capacity fell 80.0 percent and load factor fell by 35.0 percentage points to 49.4 percent.

Middle Eastern airlines’ demand fell 81.6 percent in March compared to March 2019, improved over an 83.1 percent demand drop in February, versus the same month in 2019. Capacity fell 67.2 percent, and load factor declined 32.3 percentage points to 41.3 percent.

North American carriers saw March traffic sink 80.9 percent compared to the 2019 period, again compared to the 83.4 percent decline in February compared to two years ago. Capacity sagged 62.6 percent, and load factor dropped 41.0 percentage points to 42.9 percent.

Latin American airlines experienced an 82.4 percent demand drop in March, compared to the same month in 2019, a slight improvement compared to the 83.7 percent decline in February compared to February 2019. March capacity was down 77.4 percent compared to March 2019 and load factor dropped 18.1 percentage points to 63.6 percent, the highest among the regions for a sixth straight month.