10 HURDLES BUHARI MUST CROSS TO RUN IN 2019
President Muhammadu Buhari has a four-year contract with Nigerians who voted him into power in 2015, but the constitution has made a provision for him, including governors of the 36 states of the federation, to seek re-election. But what would it take for
While the almost 74-year old president has not indicated interest for a second term, the chances are that unless he betrays precedence, he may likely go for another shot, considering political expediency and the body language of some close associates.
There are indications that the president must very soon make his position known, considering the fact that various institutions, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and civil society groups have set the ball rolling. For instance, INEC had a fortnight ago announced that the 2019 presidential and National Assembly elections will hold on Saturday, February 16, 2019 while the governorship/state assembly/Federal Capital Territory area council elections will hold on Saturday, March 2, 2019.
But while another set of people close to the president and leaders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) are carried away by the euphoria of time (believing they are less than two years into their four year mandate), those in the opposition and many other Nigerians have gone far in their permutations, literally putting President Buhari on the defensive and he must address the following squarely in order to sleep with his two eyes closed as the election year fast approaches: 1. Economy
When President Muhammadu Buhari was campaigning for the 2015 general elections, the APC promised that “Change” was underway in the country if elected. At the centre of Buhari’s campaign promise was improvement of the economy. This struck the right chord in the minds of the electorate who had, for long, yearned for a better economy.
Almost two years into the life of the administration, a lot of people believe the economy is still far worse than it was under the previous administration. But Buhari and his handlers say they inherited the economic woes.
Buhari’s government had cited the decline in government’s revenue occasioned by the fall in global oil prices, the destruction of oil and gas pipelines by militants in the Niger Delta region and the failure of past administrations to save for the rainy day.
But a number of Nigerians who are feeling the fangs of the current economic recession consider the government’s excuses flimsy and pointless. What matters to the citizenry is for President Buhari and his team to, as a matter of urgency, fix the economy.
Should President Buhari decide to seek re-election in 2019, Nigerians are most likely to use the economy as one of the major parameters to determine his fate. However, the recent rebound of oil prices and the relative peace in the Niger Delta have brought an array of hope and in the coming months, Buhari’s ministers must do extra work to put on ground tangible projects that would give him the needed steam to look at Nigerians in the eye and ask for another chance.
2. Aides, associates with corruption cases
President Buhari had on different occasions vowed that his administration’s fight against corruption knows no bounds, to the extent that he once directed the Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Mr Abubakar Malami, to investigate the involvement of any top government official accused of any wrong-doing.
When the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir David Lawal, was accused of corruption by a committee of the senate over mismanagement of funds set aside for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) camps in the North-east, not many people expected Buhari to clear him of the allegations.
In a letter written to the senate in response to the call for Lawal’s sack, Buhari cleared the SGF of the allegations, saying he was not given a fair hearing.
The fact that the anti-corruption agencies are yet to attend to the allegation of complicity in the Sahara Energy scandal against Buhari’s Chief of Staff, Mallam Abba Kyari and the Chief of Army Staff, Yusuf Buratai’s Dubai property saga is already casting doubts on the sincerity of the administration’s antigraft crusade.
If Buhari will run in 2019, he and his supporters might flaunt the success of his anti-corruption war as an achievement. But to be able to do so, the president needs to be seen to have treated those close to him as those with corruption cases who are not in the ruling APC or the corridors of power.
3. Health issue President Muhammadu Buhari was recently treated of an undisclosed ailment that saw him extend his 10-day vacation in the United Kingdom. He returned to Nigeria penultimate Friday after spending about 50 days in the UK.
While addressing the nation at a reception in the Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Buhari hinted that apart from having blood transfusions in London, he was going from one laboratory to another. He also noted that he had never been so sick in his life. This is contrary to persistent claims by his aides and other top government officials that he was hale and hearty.
“I couldn’t recall when last I had blood transfusion, I couldn’t recall honestly, I can say in my 70 years, I couldn’t remember this drug that Nigerians take so much, very common, I think one of our terrible things is self-drug administration. We have to trust our doctors more and trust ourselves more because the places I visited, they only take drugs when it is absolutely necessary. They don’t just swallow everything,” Buhari had said.
The president had also smartly informed the nation that he would undergo further medical check-ups after some weeks. Now, many people are tying the possibility or otherwise of his re-contesting the 2019 presidency to his state of health. And, in fact, some have argued that the greatest favour anyone could do for president is to pray that God restores his health to be able to complete his tenure. If he decides to go for another term, the president must exhibit dexterity and speed to prove that he is as fit as a fiddle to continue piloting the affairs of the country.
4. Fulfillment of campaign promises The fulfillment of campaign promises, no doubt, will serve as a soothing balm for any bid to run again in 2019. On this, the General may not face many challenges as he has for long tactically disowned the bulky campaign promises of the APC and restricted his to three key issues including the war against corruption, the battle against insecurity and insurgency and the revival of the ailing economy.
Besides the many other campaign promises, Buhari kept repeating these three key issues in campaign rallies across the country, thereby saving himself the burden of thinking of how to deliver countless but practically impossible electoral promises within four years.
Many Nigerians have been praising the feats achieved so far by the administration in the fight against corruption and insecurity, especially the successes recorded against the outlawed Boko Haram sect in the North-east.
The achievement in the crusade against graft was particularly noted by Buharimetre, a civil society monitoring report tracking the implementation of the president’s campaign promises.
The people of the North-east geo-political zone who are deeply affected by the activities of the insurgents are also said to be happy with the Buhari administration for restoring relative peace in the region. However, the feats in corruption and insecurity battles cannot make any meaningful impact as long as the federal government still searches for a final solution to the economic challenges which have been worsened by the recession.
Not minding his inability to fully address other campaign promises, Buhari’s capacity to achieve success in efforts to boost the economy, fight corruption and tackle various criminalities across the country will surely determine the support he would get if he decides to run again.
5. Infighting in APC The internal wrangling in the APC is one issue President Buhari must tackle head-on if he wants to get any chance of smooth contest in 2019. The internal strife which has affected the running of the party and governance is responsible for the frosty relationship between the president and the senate. The election of Bukola Saraki as Senate President against the choice of the APC National Working Committee (NWC), Senator Ahmed Lawan, destabilised the party. It took one year and some months for the party leaders to realise the need to work for genuine reconciliation.
The reconciliation efforts seem to have begun to yield positive results, following the intervention of the governors and the subsequent election of Senator Lawan
as Senate Majority Leader, a sign of readiness to abide by settlement terms. The choice of Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, a core loyalist of the senate president as the National Publicity Secretary of the APC to replace Alhaji Lai Mohammed, now Minister of Information, further signals peaceful settlement of the dispute that pitched Saraki against a former governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the first Interim National Chairman of the party, Chief Bisi Akande.
But as this issue is being resolved, the stand-off between the party’s leaders in states like Kano, Gombe, Kaduna, Kogi, Bayelsa, and Bauchi among others, need to be tackled before Buhari can truly close his eyes and consider entering the contest in 2019. The fights between Governor Umar Abdullahi Ganduje and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in Kano, Senator Danjuma Goje and Senator Usman Bayero Nafada in Gombe, Governor Nasir El-Rufai and Senator Shehu Sani in Kaduna, Governor Yahaya Bello and Senator Dino Melaye in Kogi, former governor Timipre Sylva and Comrade Timi Frank in Bayelsa, among others across the country, need to be sorted out before the Buhari candidacy can fly again.
6. Management of APC ‘godfathers’ Another hurdle the Buhari candidacy must cross is the challenge of various godfathers in the APC. Buhari cannot pursue a fresh mandate without the support of a powerful bloc controlled by the APC governors.
At present, each of the party’s 24 governors is a godfather in his state and their support for the Buhari candidacy cannot be jettisoned.
Another bloc which will determine Buhari’s candidacy is the one under the control of former governors who seem to have formed a different club in the senate. Senators Kwankwaso, Goje, Abdullahi Adamu, Isiaka Adeleke, Saraki and Ahmed Yerima belong to this camp. The way and manner the president handles this bloc will also determine what happens in 2019. The support of the party’s caucuses in the National Assembly is also a vital tonic to any successful bid by President Buhari. Already, the Jagaban Borgu and a former governor of Lagos State had pledged to back Buhari as long as he holds and seeks to hold the mantle as president. The management of these different power blocs in the APC will definitely influence the support Mr President gets in 2019 if he declares to run again.
7. Hearts of masses There is no doubt President Buhari’s solid base in the hearts of the masses in Northern Nigeria is unshakable. This is evident in the celebration that greeted his recent return from medical vacation in London. At a time when economic recession is biting hard, many middle income earners and the poor who have nothing to do within the corridors of power or juicy contracts, spent a lot of money praying for Buhari’s safe return, a clear evidence that they are on the same page with the president.
But, the trouble is that Buhari’s illness also brought to the fore, the sharp division between the North and South because many people in the South-east, South-south and parts of the South- west actually wanted the worst to happen.
The president must therefore move fast and bridge the dichotomy between the two divides because northern votes alone will not give him a second term.
8. Wailing-wailers Nobody can wish away the power of the media, especially the uncensored social media which is a modern driving force in opinion moulding.
President Buhari must find a way of giving answers to the likes of Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose, ex- minister Femi Fani Kayode and a host of others who wail endlessly and never see anything good in his government. Repeated propaganda has a way forcing itself into the gullible population.
9. Seeming dormant but dangerous PDP Yes, the PDP is in shreds and has yet to redeem itself from the pains of defeat since 2015 but analysts believe that nothing is impossible. While the contentious chairmen of the party, Senators Ali Modu Sheriff and Ahmed Makarfi have continued with their fighting, other forces are conducting nocturnal meetings trying to find a way out. As the likes of ex-president Goodluck Jonathan and Bayelsa State Governor Seriake Dickson among others are trying to unify the party in the south, chieftains in the north are equally galvanizing forces. On Wednesday, prominent politicians under the auspices of Northern Leaders and Elders (NLE) said at a meeting that they were in “genuine talks” with leaders of the 15 political parties ahead of the formation of a strong platform before 2019. They include former governors and their deputies, ex-ministers and other prominent politicians. Those at the meeting were the chairman of the National Caretaker Committee of the PDP, Senator Ahmed Makarfi; former governors-Malam Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano), Boni Haruna (Adamawa), Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Attahiru Bafarawa (Sokoto), Jonah Jang (Plateau) and former deputy governor of Sokoto State, Muktar Shagari.
Others include a former Minister of Interior, Abba Moro; a former Minister of Police Affairs Adamu Maina Waziri, a former Minister of Information Prof. Jerry Gana, former minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Bala Mohammed; former Minister of Special Duties, Tanimu Turaki and Amb. Aminu Wali among others. Obviously, no serious politician would say the above mentioned people would not matter in 2019.
10. The Renegade Senate There is no denying the fact that despite several ceasefires and compromises, the senate is still using its might to give President Buhari a run for his money. Two years into the administration, the presidency and the senate are still testing each other’s will power as evident in the manner the senators are fighting the president indirectly, such as the refusal to confirm the appointment of EFCC boss Ibrahim Magu, the altercation with Comptroller-General of Customs Hameed Ali, foot-dragging on passage of the budget and many other issues.
Pundits believe that unless Buhari finds a way to sort things out with the senators who are mostly influential in their own right, his dream of having a smooth sail in 2019 will definitely meet a brick wall.