49 INSIDEPOLITICS
If this argument albeit described as ‘too infantile’ by some analysts is anything to go by, then whoever SAS favours, Garbai, Kyari, Mai Sheriff, or any other person now being ‘preserved in the cooler’ to sprint from the rear at an appointed time, becomes
of the Shuwa socio-cultural group, Al-Hayat, and whose ‘war songs’ composed in Shuwa, Kanuri and Hausa are played in Jere Local Government Area and the social media, Senator Bashir Garbai now Commissioner for Works, Alhaji Adamu Lawan, popularly called Zau Fanfimba and now Attorney-General and Commissioner for Justice, Barr. Kaka Shehu Lawan who is rumoured to be eyeing the House of Representatives seat.
Governor Shettima who has continued to keep mum, watching all the scheming in all camps within and outside his party, the APC, with amusement or bafflement, is swimming in the logic of holding the ace to determine who succeeds him on whatever platform.
He is reported to be secretly disposed to Alhaji Mai Modu sheriff, one of the younger brothers of Senator Ali Modu Sheriff, under whom he served as commissioner and who handed over governorship to him. PDP’s Mohammed Goni, was widely acclaimed to have actually won the governorship election in 2011, and even fought unsuccessfully to reclaim his victory at the Supreme Court.
“Do you believe that this could be the pay-back time in the Shettima-Sheriff deal? Don’t trust both of them yet,” the source said, adding, “Kashim could just be testing the waters, feeling the pulse of some political forces and the public over who should become governor, whether he actually did that in Mecca or not, whether he means it or not, I may not wholly trust him now, because I cannot see a politically mature and very wise Kashim Shettima anointing his successor this long before the elections, he would be exposing that person to the whirlwind of political treacheries which may blow him out of the race, but take note! I am not saying that what he was reported to have done in Mecca is not plausible.”
Analysts who see the pendulum swinging between Senators Garbai and Kyari present their arguments on the basis of the rumours that Governor Shettima indicated his wish to contest the Northern and Central senatorial seats where Senators Kyari and Garbai now hold fort, at separate times recently.
Those who see Shettima roaming in the vicinity of the Borno Central Senatorial seat say he will ‘demand’ it from the serving Senator Garbai, his ‘intimate friend’ to whom he gave it in 2015 to keep it ‘in trust’ in 2019. It is argued that he does not expect any opposition from Senator Garbai with regard to their ‘gentlemanly upholding’ this arrangement, just in case there ever was any such arrangement.
That, it is argued, was why he ensured the election of Garbai in the bi-election to fill the position rendered vacant by the death of the then Senator Ahmad Zanna Khalifa.
Some of them also see Shettima sniffing around the Borno North senatorial seat which he will ‘demand’ from the incumbent Senator Kyari, a former commissioner and Chief of Staff. They recalled him ‘claiming’ his father hailed from Gajiram in Guzamal Local Government Area in Northern Borno when he went there to inspect community reconstruction projects for the return of IDPs and they, perhaps in a desperate search for what to lean on, now found that ‘claim’ sufficiently durable to lean on to substantiate their forecast.
That, they argue further, is made more plausible and possible by what analysts describe as the emerging bid to present Abu Kyari as the next gubernatorial candidate, which means they would merely swap positions in the implementation of the arrangement that he ‘gave’ Kyari the senatorial seat to keep for him ‘in trust’.
However, many others dismiss that bid as unattainable for Shettima, arguing that although Abubakar Kyari was once his commissioner whom he trusted to the point of appointing him his Chief of Staff, both are SAS’s ‘boys’ and ‘protégés’, and SAS, who is arguably ‘the sole financier’ who commits every resource to ensure that his ‘lackey’ contestants win their stakes in every election gamble, will determine who becomes governor, and Kashim Shettima dare not say him nay.
It is argued that SAS is still ‘revered’ as maintaining his firm grip of Borno politics to determine who gets what on the state’s political turf.
Governor Shettima, it is argued, may utilize whatever clout and power of incumbency has earned him now to ensure who becomes what on the state’s political turf, but power of incumbency is ephemeral, and he may not possess the weight to square up to whoever the ‘heavyweight’ SAS fields for whatever contest.
If this argument albeit described as ‘too infantile’ by some analysts is anything to go by, then whoever SAS favours, Garbai, Kyari, Mai Sheriff, or any other person now being ‘preserved in the cooler’ to sprint from the rear at an appointed time, becomes governor, whether recommended by Shettima or not.
The Shuwa-Arab majority grassroot population constitutes another factor in the governorship contest. It is argued that the Shuwa are disgruntled over what they describe as the domineering attitude of and their ‘permanent’ domination by the Kanuri who have been producing the governor since the creation of the state.
“Two organizations of the Shuwa - the Kash-Kash and the Al-Haya, at the majority grassroots level, not at the elite level, seem decisively in support of power shift from the Kanuri domain to anywhere else,” a source said.
He said the Hausa-Fulani population constitutes another formidable force.
“500, 000 votes can give any candidate the victory in the governorship election and the Hausa-Fulani population is about two million in a state with a little over four million population, and the Hausa-Fulani are resolute on who becomes governor, they have been hoodwinked severally in the past, they will not allow that now, they are now determined to wrestle participation in the state’s governance commensurate with their population and economic strength,” he said.
“An alliance forged by the Southern Borno, the Shuwa and the Hausa-Fulani will determine who becomes governor of Borno State in 2019,” he maintained.
Whoever can ensure that no such alliance is forged, or perfects the art of manipulating according to his whims and caprices if forged, may determine who becomes governor.
An unknown candidate now ‘preserved in the cooler’ by Governor Shettima, SAS, or both, or any other force that may sprint forth from the rear and win the race, as often in electoral contests.
Analysts who see the pendulum swinging between Senators Garbai and Kyari present their arguments on the basis of the rumours that Governor Shettima indicated his wish to contest the Northern and Central senatorial seats where Senators Kyari and Garbai now hold fort, at separate times recently