FROM FRYING PAN TO FIRE

Once upon a time, between 1980 and 2016, the Iraqi people suffered three large-scale interstate wars, three major intrastate conflicts and at least three significant episodes of assorted violence. On average, this amounts to a conflict experience once every four years. Six out of these nine conflicts involved the entire Iraqi country while eight out of nine involved significant population groups. Although most of these conflicts happened under the rule of President Saddam Hussein (1979–2003), the brutality did not lessen after his fall from power.

In 2003, Saddam Hussein, the deposed president of Iraq, was captured by the United States military in the town of Ad-Dawr, and executed on December 30, 2006, according to the sentence of an Iraqi tribunal. However, his capture and subsequent execution did not yield the desired results. The US invasion of 2003 and its ensuing occupation of Iraq unfortunately only brought a brief period of relief from the coercive aspects of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship. Violent repression was rapidly replaced by violent chaos which was fuelled by several factors. First, violence was triggered by the resentment and rejectionism of Sunni groups and individuals who were abruptly marginalized after the US victory over Hussein’s forces. Second, Shi’a nationalists took to arms as well when they perceived a foreign occupier to be replacing a domestic tyrant. Third, poor post-conflict planning for civilian recovery on the part of the US administration played a role. And lastly, any transition out of dictatorship, irrespective of its exact pathway, would inevitably have unleashed the many tensions that had accumulated over the decades of rule under Saddam Hussein.

Iraqi people were said to have jumped from the proverbial frying pan into a flame of scorching fire.

In 2023, a cousin of mine called me shortly after voting. She had just returned from standing under the hot sun patiently waiting to exercise her civic duties. When I asked who she voted for, she replied calmly: ‘I voted for APC’ and added a quick prayer ‘May we not live to regret it. May we never utter the words “gwamma Buhari”.’

Last week Thursday, terrorists abducted 287 students from a school in Kuriga, a town in Chikun Local Government Area of Kaduna State and marched them into the forest unchallenged. This event brought to the limelight and possibly a climax the tragic episodes of years-long reign of terror in the community.

The mass kidnapping in Kaduna state was the second in a week were heavily armed criminal gangs on motorbikes target victims in villages and schools and along highways in search of ransom payments. On March 3, 2024, suspected Boko Haram fighters abducted at least 400 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) – most of them women and children – from Babban Sansani, Zulum and Arabic IDP camps in Gamboru Ngala, Borno state.

And a week before that, on Wednesday, February 28, bandits attacked the Gonin-Gora community, a suburb of Kaduna metropolis in the Chikun Local Government Area, kidnapping 16 residents. The bandits are currently demanding a ransom of N40 trillion for their release.

I cannot lie—that part made me laugh. N40 trillion ke? How much is the budget of this country? Also, did the kidnappers do the cost-benefit analysis of this operation? Because how much will they use to feed 287 children? In this era of N4,000/mudu of rice? Who is their accountant sef?

Another question we should ask ourselves is this—Did these kidnappings happen under Baba? The honest answer is a resounding Yes. Yes, they did. So technically, we have not reached the ‘gwamma Buhari” stage. But is that where we are headed? Did the previous administration not lay down the blueprint for this current mess we are in?

Its nine months since President Tinubu was declared winner and assumed office in a fiercely contested election. Since then, Nigerians have experienced hardship like we have never imagined: Insecurity, exponential inflation, food inflation, forex crisis, economic hardship and high cost of living occasioned by the removal of petrol subsidy, attracting protests in parts of the country. The Nigerian naira has seen a dip in the last nine months since the Tinubu administration collapsed the foreign exchange window. The naira experienced an all-time low, falling from about N700/$1 last May to over N1500/$1 at the moment. As for electricity, Nigerians have since given up. What is being generated is less than what we previously enjoyed. States that previously saw an average of 10-18 hours of electricity are now wailing loudly. Yes, now we have all turned to wailing wailers.

Similarly, the price per litre of Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) skyrocketed over 350% from N184 last May to over N600 at the moment, depending on the location. We were told that the subsidy removed would be used to build Nigeria, to take Nigerians to loftier heights, to the land of milk and honey. However, now we know better. Now we know that it is being used to sponsor commissioners to workshops in London.

The recent kidnappings are replicas of the abduction of the Chibok Girls exactly ten years ago. And just like we held President GEJ accountable, calling him countless names, we must also hold President BAT accountable. How can we still be battling with mass kidnappings ten years later? President Tinubu promised to tackle insecurity like his predecessor and yet, nine months later—nothing; students are still being carted away like sheep in broad daylight. If anything, these bandits have become bolder.

Hundreds of schoolchildren and college students have been kidnapped in mass abductions in the north-west and central regions in the last three years. Almost all were released after ransom payments were paid after weeks or months spent in captivity at camps hidden in the forests that stretch across northwestern Nigeria.

Nigeria’s indices have never been so bad. And even with President BAT’s promise of ‘Light at the end of the tunnel’, Nigerians cup of optimism is running dry. Of what use is the light if our children are kidnapped, maimed or worse yet, killed? How does one remain optimistic in the face of hunger? How can optimism grow when hoodlums have taken the law into their hands and are now breaking into warehouses? How can we glimpse the light at the end of the tunnel in this darkness caused by the absence of electricity? How does optimism grow when there is water scarcity? Nigerians are still grappling with buying water at N100/jerrycan because there is no electricity to pump community boreholes and you want them to be optimistic? How? How? How? Mr president, have we made the plunge from frying pan to fire?

The Nigerian naira has seen a dip in the last nine months since the Tinubu administration collapsed the foreign exchange window. The naira experienced an all-time low, falling from about N700/$1 last May to over N1500/$1 at the moment. As for electricity, Nigerians have since given up. What is being generated is less than what we previously enjoyed. States that previously saw an average of 10-18 hours of electricity are now wailing loudly. Yes, now we have all turned to wailing wailers.