12 top politicians to watch

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the timetable for the 2019 elections in March this year. The next presidential and National Assembly elections will hold on February 16, 2019. With only a year and a half to go before the elect

PPDaily Trust on Sunday

Muhammadu Buhari

resident Muhammadu Buhari has not declared his interest in seeking a second term but the possibility that he will do so cannot be ruled out as his loyalists and political associates have continued to fly that kite with oracular enthusiasm. The Progressive Governors Forum Chairman, Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State, in February this year reportedly asked his fellows in the South-East not to talk about an Igbo presidency until after Buhari’s tenure, saying the president has a tenure to work for four or eight years according to the zoning arrangement of the ruling APC.

Buhari defeated former President Goodluck Jonathan during the 2015 elections that was widely adjudged to be free and fair; thus becoming the first Nigerian politician to defeat a sitting president through the ballot box. While he is about to

Yemi Osinbajo

rofessor Yemi Osinbajo was a relatively lightweight Vice President around President Muhammadu Buhari’s overwhelming political personality but his political stock greatly increased this year when he became the Acting President. An intellectually hefty Law professor and Senior Advocate of Nigeria and a very eloquent pastor, Osinbajo has impressed Nigerians during his acting tenure at the top. He does not however have a political base of his own, being a product of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s political machine to which he has remained a loyal follower. If Buhari does not seek a second term in 2019, Osinbajo will loom large in APC calculations even though regional calculations within the party could affect his chances. He must also contend with the ambitions of Tinubu, who wanted to be Buhari’s running mate in 2015; he only yielded to the religious factor and nominated Osinbajo instead. If however Buhari is unable to complete his first term, Osinbajo will become substantive president and it will thereafter become difficult to stop complete his first two years in office as an elected civilian president of Nigeria there is the big question as to whether or not he would seek re-election. Although he is yet to declare his intention, the constitution of Nigeria allows a sitting president to seek re-election after his first term of four years. Having emerged as president on the mantra of change, Buhari’s major political strength lies in his incorruptible credentials that have made him very popular among Nigerians, especially in the North. The fight against insurgency in the NorthEast as well as his anti-corruption crusade is seen as his major achievements in his first term. Serious health challenges since January this year however cast a big question mark on Buhari’s political future. He has been out of the country seeking medical attention for most of this year, which has raised doubts that he will seek another term in 2019. Even if he does not seek a second term however, the popular incumbent president could be a decisive factor in determining who flies the APC flag in 2019. him within APC.

Atiku Abubakar

A former Vice President for eight years, Atiku Abubakar is a political heavyweight in Nigeria with considerable political machinery especially in Northern Nigeria. Atiku, who never hides his presidential ambition, had contested the 2007 presidential election on the platform of the defunct Action Congress (AC) after realizing that he could not get the PDP ticket because of his frosty relationship with then President Obasanjo. Atiku also contested for the PDP presidential ticket against President Goodluck Jonathan in 2011. He again vied for APC’s ticket in 2014 against President Buhari, finishing third at the Lagos convention.

Could 2019 be his year? The action, body language and utterances of the Waziri of Adamawa are enough to show seriousness. In the past year Atiku suddenly became a vocal voice for restructuring. This is seen as a strategy to woo the South-South and South-East, regions where Buhari is not popular. In the North, Atiku’s strategy is to insist on a “power shift” to the North East. He has been saying since 1999 that the North West has marginalised the North East in top political offices. Those strategies are backed by very deep pockets and one of the greatest determinations in Nigerian politics. Atiku celebrated his 70th birthday recently and his renewed determination probably stems from a calculation that 2019, when he will be 72, is his last chance.

Atiku’s political reputation over the years has been harmed by his frequent change of political parties in pursuit of his presidential ambition. In the run up to 2019, it is possible that he may again return to PDP. He is already laying grounds for that because last week he attacked APC as a party without internal democracy.