12 top politicians to watch

FAsiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

ormer two-term governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu is one of the biggest power brokers in Nigerian politics, the effective political leader of the South West states. President Muhammadu Buhari admitted this much in his acceptance speech after being declared winner of the 2015 election. Tinubu however believes that Buhari’s administration has not accorded to him recognition and influence commensurate to his contribution in 2015. He was also frustrated by the leadership that emerged in both Senate and House of Representatives against his wishes, and he is also at war against party national chairman John Oyegun.

Tinubu said early this year that if Buhari does not run in 2019, he will consider running himself. Tinubu is the South West politician best placed to replicate Chief Moshood Abiola’s 1993 feat. He has firm control over his base and the Jagaban Borgu also has deep reach into the North. His ambitions could however be complicated by the further rise of his protégé, Osinbajo. This is especially true if Osinbajo becomes substantive president before 2019.

ABukola Saraki

former two-term governor of Kwara State, former chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum and current Senate President, Abubakar Bukola Saraki aims to succeed where his father, the late Senator Abubakar Olusola Saraki stopped just short. Saraki has defied political gravity so far and would certainly fancy his chances of becoming President, especially if the incumbent does not run. Saraki briefly entered PDP’s presidential primaries in 2010 but bowed out when the Adamu Ciroma panel adopted Atiku Abubakar as the sole Northern candidate to run against Goodluck Jonathan. Saraki’s defection to APC in 2014 was a major contributor to the party’s eventual success. He snatched the Senate

FSule Lamido

ormer two-term governor of Jigawa State Alhaji Sule Lamido has already commenced campaigning for the PDP ticket ahead of 2019. In April last year he reportedly told newsmen in his village, Bamaina in Birnin Kudu Local Government Area of the State, “If my party finds me worthy of the party’s presidential ticket to serve Nigeria, I will thank God and oblige.” Two weeks after he was released on bail from prison over allegation of incitement preferred against him by the Jigawa State Government in May this year Lamido unveiled his 2019 presidential bid during a dinner for the 36 state chairmen of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) held in Abuja.

Lamido is one of the most experienced politicians in Nigeria today, having been a prominent PRP member of the House of Representatives in the Second Republic and was a leading member of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the Third Presidency against the wishes of Buhari, Tinubu and APC leaders in 2015 and has kept the Senate remarkably united behind himself with deft political moves since last year.

He has a loyal base in Kwara State too, where Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed recognizes him as leader of the ruling APC in Kwara State. Although he is wealthy, well known nationally and has a firm control of his state, his presidential ambition is unpopular among diehard Buhari supporters in the North, who see him as the effective “opposition leader” to the Buhari presidency. APC loyalists also accuse Saraki of anti-party activity, since PDP senators helped him to clinch the Senate Presidency and still stand solidly behind him. Republic. Lamido was also Obasanjo’s Foreign Affairs Minister in 1999-2003. As governor of Jigawa, he earned kudos for executing many worthwhile infrastructural projects including roads, airport and a state university. Throughout his political career however, Lamido’s reputation is that of a political hothead who is known for controversies and ruffling political feathers. It might yet prove to be the quality PDP needs in 2019.

FNasir El Rufai ormer Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and current Governor of Kaduna State Malam Nasir El Rufa’i is widely known to nurse ambitions to succeed Buhari as president. The stint of this “accidental public servant” in national politics and governance since 1999 has been a mixture of courage, inventiveness, epic controversy and not a little dare devilry. As Director General of the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) in 1999-2003 he pursued privatisation of public enterprises with great courage but also a lot of controversy. As Obasanjo’s FCT Minister in 2003-07 el-Rufa’i innovatively sanitised Abuja but was accused of insensitivity in demolishing slums and illegal buildings.

He was one of the pioneers in APC’s formation in 2013 and he struck a very close relationship with his former adversary Buhari, who encouraged and

TKashim Shettima

supported him to become the governor of Kaduna State. As governor, el-Rufa’i is credited with dynamism but also with epic controversy such as demolishing of houses that encroached school quarters, sale of government quarters, a poorly executed school feeding program, unending quarrels with political opponents and initially poor handling of trouble in southern Kaduna State.

His opponents alleged that el-Rufa’i was angling to become vice president if Buhari fails to complete his term. Early this year a memo that the Kaduna governor wrote to Buhari providing solutions to many national problems was leaked, allegedly by persons close to Buhari who wanted to portray el-Rufa’i as overambitious. Nasiru el-Rufa’i’s potentially biggest obstacle is zoning within APC, which could zone his North West region out of 2019 presidential calculations even though it is the country’s most populous region and also its most solidly pro-APC zone. Everything considered, this man with a small body frame but giant intellect and ambitions is a man to watch in 2019. wo months ago Borno State’s Governor Kashim Shettima suddenly came under a sustained social media attack from invisible quarters. Political pundits later traced the attacks to Atiku Abubakar’s hyper-active media office, which they said identified him as a likely obstacle in Atiku’s way. The non-controversial Shettima has not indicated his ambition to run for the Presidency in 2019 though Danlami Kubo, Deputy Speaker of Borno State Assembly, reportedly said earlier this year that Governor Kashim Shettima should be considered as Nigeria’s future ruler.

According to pundits, Atiku’s team calculated that if Buhari does not run in 2019, APC’s 24 state governors would seize the initiative and insist that one of them should be the next party leader. Within their ranks, they are likely to maintain the ticket in the North, where most APC supporters are. Within the North, they could well decide to zone the ticket to the North East since the populous North West zone has produced many leaders since 1999 including President Yar’adua, former Vice President Namadi Sambo and Buhari. APC has four serving governors in the North East of which two are first termers. Of the second term governors, Shettima has a much higher profile as a former top banker and university lecturer who tackled his state’s devastating Boko Haram problem with courage and dynamism, including efforts to rebuild shattered communities so that IDPs can return home. He is also the chairman of the Northern States Governors Forum [NSGF] and has recently been engaged in efforts to get Arewa Youth groups to cancel their Igbo quit notice. It is for these reasons that this undeclared candidate is one of the top men to watch in 2019.

SAhmed Makarfi

enator Ahmed Makarfi was governor of Kaduna State from 1999 to 2007. Within the eight years he was in office, he was able to mitigate religious and ethnic violence in the state and has through that feat projected himself as an objective and fair-minded leader. His outstanding performance in the state’s infrastructural development with his sharp focus on rural roads, rural water and rural electrification shot him into national limelight. Makarfi was a senator in 200715 where he chaired the committee on Appropriation. Even though he lost the bid to return a third time in 2015, his profile rose further when PDP governors and party members appointed him Chairman of the party at a convention which held in PortHarcourt last year. Since then he had been battling for the position with former governor of Borno State Ali Modu Sheriff, until recently when the Supreme Court ruled in his favour.

Makarfi is expected to relinquish the PDP chairmanship which has been zoned to the Southwest but he is already a likely candidate for its presidential ticket, which was zoned to the North, especially given the trust key members of the party, especially serving governors, have in him.

GAminu Waziri Tambuwal

overnor of Sokoto State Aminu Waziri Tambuwal is often mentioned as an important APC contender for president if Buhari does not run in 2019. Tambuwal developed a wide national reputation after he clinched the post of Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2011 against the wishes of the ruling PDP and President Goodluck Jonathan but with the full backing of ACN leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. In four years he also kept the House remarkably united and became a prominent

GRochas Okorocha

overnor Okorocha is not new at taking shots at the nation’s Presidency. In 1999, Okorocha competed in the primaries to be PDP candidate for governor of Imo State but lost to Achike Udenwa. He then moved to All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) but was unsuccessful in his quest for the party’s ticket for the presidency in 2003 and thereafter returned to PDP. Okorocha formed the Action Alliance (AA) in 2005, planning to become its presidential candidate for the 2007 elections. He finished second to Alhaji Umaru Yar’adua in PDP’s 2007 presidential primaries. After that Okorocha decamped to All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), on which platform he won election as governor of Imo State in 2011. He then carried his APGA faction into APC in 2013.

Rochas Okorocha is chairman of APC governors’ forum and does not hide his presidential ambitions. As APC’s most prominent Igbo politician, his calculation is that he should get the ticket when APC zones the presidency to Igboland in 2019 or 2023. voice on the national scene admired for his intellect and level-headedness.

Tambuwal fell out with Jonathan and his wife, Patience over many issues and in late 2014 he defected to APC. He did not contest the party’s presidential primaries but instead picked its governorship ticket and became governor of Sokoto State. He is however said to have lost Tinubu’s support because he supported Yakubu Dogara to succeed him as Speaker against Tinubu’s candidate, current House Leader Femi Gbajiamila. Still, Tambuwal is a visible option to succeed Buhari in 2019.