Defections: More gains, more pains for PDP?
Though the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has more gains in the recent gale of defections, it might later cause ripples within its fold.
From Ahmed Tahir Ajobe, (Minna), Hope Abah, (Makurdi), Andrew Agbese, (Kaduna), Abubakar Auwal, (Sokoto) & Itodo Daniel Sule, (Lokoja)
Babangida, Ibeto: Who takes control in Niger?
The recent defection of the immediate past deputy governor of Niger State Malam Ahmed Ibeto to Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would certainly cause concern within the fold as he is believed to be eying the governorship position.
For Ibeto to have relinquished the position as Nigeria’s ambassador to South Africa is seen as a mean decision sending jitters to other PDP aspirants for the governorship post.
Analysts say Ibeto may have predicted that with the governorship position already in Zone C where he comes from, this is the right time and opportunity he desperately seeks.
But Ibeto’s albatross may be his choice of platform on which he wishes to realise his long nurtured ambition. He defected to APC when the party needed him most in 2015, betraying his boss then Governor Babangida Aliyu in the process and exposing the party’s weakness. Its defeat in that election was attributable to that singular act.
However, his return to the same platform is causing stir among members and aspirants eying the governorship seat on the platform.
Three days to his defection, some elders and youths group accused the Chairman of the party, Barrister Tanko Beji of paving way for Ibeto’s emergence by insisting on the zoning of the governorship position to Zone C.
Analysts predicted that aspirants from other zones, who have already publicly declared interest for the position, are likely to revolt over the matter.
Also, long before Ibeto’s defection some aspirants such as Hanafi Muazu Sudan and Umar Ahmed from the same zone also indicated interest to vie for the position. Analysts said such persons are likely to fight dirty to scuttle Ibeto’s ambition.
Beyond these, analysts predicted that the return of Ibeto would revive the struggle for the control of party structures among key leaders. With the death of former Governor Abdulkadir Kure, Aliyu became the natural leader of the party, but the return of Ibeto is likely to alter the calculation.
It is believed the former governor is waiting to pay back the former ambassador for betraying him in 2015. The impending struggle between the two, analysts predicted, would polarise the party ahead of 2019 election and greatly affect its fortune. In Benue, it is ‘give and take’ In Benue State, some powerful politicians with the capacity to change calculations have cross-carpeted. Leading the pack is Governor Samuel Ortom who dumped the APC on which platform he won the 2015 election to return to his former PDP abode.
Besides, he is considered one politician who has the grip of the electorate at the grassroots and could pull the strings in the favour of his party at any given time.
Nevertheless, the governor may likely crack a hard nut with political aspirants who have been steadfast with the party when he led other defectors away in the last election.
Those aspirants such as the PDP 2015 gubernatorial flag bearer, Prince Terhemen Tarzoor, an ex-president of Council for the Regulation of Engineering in Nigeria (COREN), Engineer Felix Atume and a former Commissioner of Lands and Survey, John Tondo among others are not going to give the governor a free ride.
The PDP on its part through its State Publicity Secretary, Bemgba Iortyom, has however posited that the returnee governor would not be given preferential treatment but a level playing ground with the rest of the contestants so that the delegates at the primary election will decide their popularity.
Similarly, the Deputy Governor, Engineer Benson Abounu, who had joined his principal in the move to PDP, would likely face opposition within the party from his Otukpo home base where former senate president, David Mark is known to dictate the pace.
Already, unconfirmed reports are that Abounu’s position is threatened as some PDP faithful in Idoma land want him replaced as a condition for the governor to obtain the party’s ticket for his reelection.
However, his biggest battle in the PDP for a return to the Senate would be fought with former Governor Gabriel Suswam who another former governor, George Akume defeated in the 2015 election in the platform of the APC.
The seeming crisis these returnees would generate at whatever level as events unfolds may vary such as Suswam appears to wield a lot of influence in terms of party control, and determination of election contestants. In Kaduna, it’s undercurrent disquiet The defection of Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi was not a surprise as far as Kaduna State was concerned. Before then, the Chief of Staff to the Senate President, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed had left the APC while the APC Akida and the Restoration Group which were set up by APC leaders in the state and which Hunkuyi belonged had announced they were leaving the party.
The defection of Hunkuyi, Baba-Ahmed and the parting of ways of the two groups with the APC were long anticipated.
Our correspondent learnt that long before the defections, there have been several meetings to accommodate the interest of all especially those who had left and had wanted to come back.
However, problems arose for the party when a former governor, Ramalan Yero, indicated interest again in gunning for the governorship seat. He was said to have told PDP leaders that he deserves the right to be given right of first refusal since he was the candidate of the party in 2015.
His problem stems from the fact that he no longer enjoys the confidence of former Vice President Namadi Sambo who is said to be behind the former Director-General of the National Emergency Management Agency, Muhammad Sani Sidi who has also indicated interest in vying for the governorship ticket of the party.
But the peculiarity of the Kaduna situation is that most of the candidates are PDP returnees with the exception of Yero and Muhammad Sani Bello, Shuaibu Idris Miqati and Jonathan Kish Adamu.
The likes of Bello who remained in the party even when it was deserted feel it will be unfair to give the ticket to others.
The same goes for Miqati who has equally shown faith in the party and did not leave. Tambuwal yet to find feet in PDP In Sokoto, many still haven’t gotten to terms with the rationale behind the defection of Governor Aminu Tambuwal to the PDP.
However, Tambuwal was said to have been nurturing the ambition of aspiring to the presidency as one of the reasons for his frequent travelling across the country in order to garner support. Pundits have it that the governor was not bothered about losing his state if he could get the presidential ticket of the PDP.
Moving to PDP, Tambuwal has just a handful of people and therefore grabbing the party machinery from a former governor of the state, Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa, has not manifested.
On the whole, the PDP is not making headway in Sokoto despite the defection of Tambuwal as it has no a single member in the state and national assemblies. Even before the recent dissolution of the local government council, they had none of the 244 counsellors and chairman.
However, with the defection, the party now has the Governor while his deputy remains in APC. It has eighteen out of the 30 House of Assembly members, one Senator and four out of the 11 members of the House of Representatives.
Meanwhile, a strong voice in Sokoto PDP is a one-time deputy governor Alhaji Muktar Shagari. He has been angling for the governorship of the state and many believed he will not allow Tambuwal to take over the machinery of the party from him. In Kogi, Dino may not have easy ride In Kogi State, those that joined the PDP include Senator Dino Melaye representing Kogi West, Hassan Omale, and Member representing Ankpa, Omala and Olamaboro Federal Constituency at the House of Representatives and Benjamin Ikani Okolo, Member representing Dekina/Bassa Federal Constituency.
Their defections were widely celebrated by the PDP leadership and enthusiasts who viewed their entrance as political advantage given their powerful influences.
Notwithstanding the euphoria, there are fears the movements into the PDP may have thrown up fresh intrigues and intense political struggle for tickets and control of party machinery amongst gladiators capable of causing disaffection in the party ahead of the 2019 elections.
This is more so that Melaye and his co-defectors were coming at a time when most of the existing loyal party members who have ambitions of going to the National Assembly among others had already established themselves.
While the defectors are coming in with the intentions of grabbing the party’s tickets and machinery to actualise their political ambitions on one hand, the “loyalists” would also not fold their arms and watch the “new entrants” dislodge them.
In the case of Senator Melaye, the zoning arrangement may be one of the odds he has to contend with because, long before his defection, the PDP had zoned the Kogi West seat to Yagba axis in the interest of balance and fairness.
The argument is that the Ijumu axis where Senator Melaye hails from had produced Senator Smart Adeyemi for eight years and Melaye for another four years while Yagba is yet to take a shot at the Senate.
As it stands today, the defectors are no doubt in for a fierce battle and what will be the end result remains to be seen.