Why Buhari is still the man to beat
going into the 2019 election as an incumbent enjoying the support of a lot more politicians than he ever did, adding that the president won with large margins in the past in some states without the support of majority of the politicians from those states who are now members of the opposition party.
“From the demographics we have now, the historic figures and the present realities that we know, these defections will have little or no impact on the chances of Mr President’s re-election,” he said, adding that Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Yobe and Niger, with over 30 million registered voters, are states that Buhari had consistently won with considerable large margins in past elections, especially in 2011 and 2015.
Added to this is the factor of voter apathy. Riding on the crest of the change mantra that gave APC victory in 2015, Nigerians invested high expectations in the APC led government in terms of its campaign promises. Some observers, however, believe that many of the electorate may no longer be enthusiastic in casting their votes for either the ruling party or the opposition due to their disillusionment with the political system. This would have effect on the voting patterns, even in states that are traditionally Buhari support base.
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Minus the defection of the Senate President, Bukola Saraki and his co-travellers, latest events in the political scene have shown that nothing much has changed in President Muhammadu Buhari’s support’s base. The by-elections in Bauchi, Katsina and Kogi states penultimate Saturday where the ruling party emerged victorious have reinforced the fact that President Buhari retains the hold of the North, where he got the majority of his votes in 2015.
At the 2015 election, the Buhari/Osinbajo ticket got 15.4 million votes as against Jonathan/ Sambo 12.8m votes, translating to 53.96 and 44.96 percent, respectively. Buhari won four out of the six geopolitical zones including the North-West, North-East, North-Central and the South-West and Jonathan won in South-East and South-South.
Latest statistics released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) showed that the number of registered voters has increased from 67.4m in 2015 to 82.1m. Buhari as well as other candidates that will fly the ticket of their respective political parties are going to compete for the 82m votes.
In the 2015 polls, the success recorded in the South-West was attributed to Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Osinbajo and massive disenchantment against the Jonathan’s administration. In the zone Buhari got 2.4m and Jonathan had 1.8m votes.
As it is now, the chances of Buhari look brighter in the South-West. Aside the Tinubu/Osinbajo factor, the appointment of South-West persons in juicy positions, construction of gigantic projects, the declaration of June 12 as Democracy Day and above all, the belief that Buhari will hand over to someone from the South-West in 2023, are increasing his popularity in the zone ahead of the polls.
It is believed that the victory recorded in the July Ekiti governorship election was an indication of what is to come in the February presidential election. Dr. Kayode Fayemi of the APC polled 197,459 votes as against 178,121 of Olusola Eleka of the PDP..
In the South-East and the South-South geopolitical zones where Jonathan won (Buhari got 198,248 in South-East and 418,590 votes in SouthSouth), two factors played out. Being from a SouthSouth state, Bayelsa, former President Jonathan had a good. The election in the zone was seen as a religious battle, as the case in other zones.
Not much has been achieved by President Buhari in penetrating the South-East politically. The defection of some key politicians in the zone seems not to have made much impact. Chiefly responsible for this are the issue of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and the allegations of lopsided appointments against the Buhari’s administration.
The zoning of the Presidential seat to the North by the PDP, the leading opposition may change the permutation in next year’s election.
For the South-South, the belief in the Buhari’s camp was that the defection of Godswill Akpabio will turn the tide. Buhari in 2015 got 58,411 while Jonathan polled 953,304 votes.
The farmers/ herders clashes in the NorthCentral zone may affect the chances of President Buhari in the area. In 2015, Buhari defeated Jonathan with over 700,000. He got 2.4m and Jonathan 1.7m.
The relative peace being enjoyed recently in the area is being attributed to the forthcoming polls. Although, the National Security Adviser (NSA), Babagana Monguno, punctured this belief on Thursday after the National Economic Council (NEC) meeting, stakeholders in the zone are expressing reservation.
Presidential Spokesperson, Femi Adesina, while featuring in a television program anchored by ex-presidential spokesperson under Jonathan, Reuben Abati, said President Buhari will win the February election by a wide margin.
Adesina who enumerated the success recorded so far by his boss, said: “I see him winning even with a wider margin than he did to President Jonathan in 2015.”
Asked if he was of the opinion that there is no alternative to Buhari, he said: “In a country of 198m people, there will always be an alternative. There are alternatives to anybody at anytime but 2019 elections as I’m seeing it, President Buhari will win it with a wider margin.”