Slippery slopes to self-determination

“If you want togo quickly, goal one. If you want togo far, go together ”. African pro verb.

With a small majority, British voters last week dramatically swerved their nation in the direction of a vaguely-defined future. They created one of those turning points that are visible only to those who stubbornly shut their eyes and imagine an end of their own making. Voters that wanted their nation out of the European Union (EU) were poorly prepared to appreciate the full impact of their choice. Those who opposed it were almost smug in their confidence that it will not happen. It is obvious that the tremors of that decision will be felt far and wide for a long time. Initial casualties already include a resigning Prime Minister (PM), a leader of the opposition who will almost certainly be pulled down, massive turbulence in the ruling party, a disturbing disconnect between leaders and citizens, damaging uncertainties regarding the mode and impact of the disengagement process on the economy, labour movement and employment, future relations with Europe and the world and a host of other issues that no one even contemplated. Many voters who wanted out are experiencing a buyer’s remorse, that nagging regret that you did not exactly buy what you wanted or needed. Those who voted to stay are involved in a bitter blame game, bracing for a future that will do a lot more than change the number of EU members.

Only in two or three years’ time will matters relating to this decision be clearer even to those who are knowledgeable. The manner Britain’s exit from the EU would have affected its relations with the rest of Europe would be settled beyond speculation. The anger and indignation in Europe at this moment suggests that this is a most unhappy parting that could involve a lot of throwing things out of windows. It is conceivable that a relationship framework is created that tolerates Britain as an ally of sorts, the type that is useful but not liked. Britain itself could come to terms with the deep roots it shares with Europe, and facilitate a fence-mending process that leaves it some space and influence in European affairs. The EU would have come to terms with the need for vigilance and reform in its operations. It may have had to discourage further exits in a continent witnessing a resurgence of rightwing politics that peddles sentiments around building national walls against foreigners and remote governance. If it survives as a continental body, the EU would have accorded sufficient respect for what just happened in Britain, notwithstanding the tendency to treat the British historically as odd sorts. It would have defined its place more clearly in the lives of citizens of member nations, beyond the impression that it is important beyond question. It may have moved in a direction that acknowledges that migration and security are major issues in a world caught between erecting barriers for security, and lowering them for economic prosperity. This would have placed strains on a body with pronounced disagreements on responding to major crises in parts of the world where Europe has major stakes, in addition to existing pressure to open the gates to poorer cousins, and to a Turkey that could substantially alter the mix.

The EU may survive a British exit better than a Britain outside Europe. Now the flames for full Scottish and Irish independence will burn more intensely. The voting pattern showed many deep cleavages in the UK. More Scots and Irish will now move away from a union that adds a dose of recklessness to a relationship that will not answer to anachronistic. Older Britons pulled back the carpet from under the feet of its future, leaving an angry generation which knew only of being in the EU. Reinventing the pride-in-the-island mentality in generations that grew in a globalized environment and culture with emphasis on individual choices will be difficult, and younger Britons may punish older politicians who led the way into this uncertain and unfamiliar future. Managing a British economy with lesser intimacy with Europe will take a lot of skills and

For us in Nigeria, the best case to be made by those who believe in Biafra, or different federal arrangements is to work through the political process and secure a peaceful, broad concensus that Nigerians can go their own ways