59 strategies are too many
Minister of Budget and National Planning Senator Udoma Udo Udoma spoke on Monday last week of the Buhari regime’s efforts to rescue the economy from the current recession. He said there are 59 strategies being developed by government to deal with the economic downturn, 12 of which will be given priority.
The document he unveiled, referred to as the Medium Term Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP 2017-2020) has the following priority areas: restore oil production to 2.2 mbpd and reach 2.5mpd by 2020; privatize selected assets; accelerate non-oil revenue generation; drastically cut costs; align monetary, trade and fiscal policies and expand infrastructure, especially power, roads and rail. Others include efforts to revamp the four existing oil refineries; improve Ease of Doing Business; expand social investment programs; deliver on agricultural transformation; accelerate implementation of National Industrial Revolution Plan using Special Economic Zones; and focus on priority sectors in order to generate jobs, promote exports, boost growth and upgrade skills.
Though it has not yet been launched by the Federal Government, ERGP2017-2020 is a positive plan for the future. It will address the concerns of experts who have argued severally that without a clear economic policy, the Buhari regime will continue to beat about the bush and will be clutching at straws while grappling with economic downturn. This document from the Budget and National Planning Ministry is an indicator that the regime has at last harkened to the voice of reason and is set to take the right path to economic recovery.
However, 59 strategies are too many and should be streamlined to accord priority to those that can boost liquidity and facilitate a quick return to economic growth. For instance, the minister has restoration of oil production to 2.2mbpd OPEC quota as top priority. Pursuing this objective with commitment and political will should be considered as an immediate measure. Though government has attempted to engage leaders of the Niger Delta in the last few months, it seems militants in the oil-rich region still perceive government’s efforts and promises as half-hearted, hence their continued sabotage of oil facilities.
Government has the resources and goodwill to persuade the militants to halt the destruction of oil infrastructure, but it seems the Buhari administration has not deployed these effectively in its attempt to tackle the economic saboteurs. Dealing with and solving the militancy in the Niger Delta will, at least, boost our oil production capacity and earn Nigeria more foreign exchange in the short term. This could be done quicker than to, for instance, “accelerate non-oil revenue generation,” which has been a mirage all along and should be considered to be a long term policy.
Also, “expanding infrastructure, especially power” is a much more urgent measure than to “accelerate implementation of National Industrial Revolution Plan by using Special Economic Zones”. The debilitating power situation in Nigeria is responsible for low capacity utilization in many industries; high cost of goods produced in Nigeria; difficulty in doing business here; and even the relocation of many manufacturing companies from Nigeria to neighbouring countries. In as much as there are many areas in the economy that need remedy, 59 strategies are still too many. If, in the next two years, government can fix the power sector, end militancy in the Niger Delta, work on roads, and revolutionize agriculture, every other aspect of the economy would either fall in place or it would be easier to tackle.
In reviving the economy, government should not ignore the need to reform the civil service, which as it is today is over-bloated, corruption-prone and lacks the capacity to deliver on the visions of the government. It will be difficult indeed to achieve 59 strategies or even a few of them when the government’s main tool of policy implementation, namely the civil service, is in such a shape as it is today.