‘Nigeria peril’ report is itself perilous

Many Nigerians became aware of a new report released last Thursday by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group [ICG] when Premium Times first reported it at the weekend. PT’s alarmist story was titled “Nigeria in times of peril over Buhari, ICG warns.” Actually ICG titled its report “Nigeria: Growing Insecurity on Multiple Fronts,” which is slightly more palatable.

The paternalistic ICG report did say, “Nigeria is facing a time of uncertainty and peril. President Muhammadu Buhari’s failing health--he has spent more than 110 days battling an undisclosed illness in UK--is prompting intense manoeuvring regarding who will run for president in 2019, particularly among loyalists and others seeking to preserve Northern rule. The eight-yearold insurgency by the radical Islamist group Boko Haram persists. An older problem, Biafra separatist agitation in the South East, is provoking dangerous domino effects in the north and Niger Delta, while deadly clashes between herders and farmers are escalating across the central belt and spreading southward.”

I agree that these are enough problems for any country but the question is, is it only Nigeria that is facing a time of uncertainty and peril? Right there in Belgium where ICG is based, the Flemish and Walloons have failed to integrate into a nation after many centuries. Just across the English Channel, Britain too is facing uncertainty and economic peril after its voters decided to quit the EU without properly thinking of the consequences, only to turn around and drag their feet in Brexit negotiations and for British voters to further hobble Prime Minister Theresa May’s government as she tried to fulfil their wish. I will also expect to see ICG’s report on the perils and uncertainty in USA, with a president that some experts have said needs psychiatric examination.

ICG described itself “an independent, non-profit, nongovernmental organization.” Even if it is independent of Western governments and their intelligence agencies, which is doubtful, it is not free of Western biases and paternalistic attitude towards other people, Africans in particular. If President Buhari’s health situation is provoking manoeuvring regarding who will run for president in 2019, that is not what is called perilous. In fact, even before Buhari left the country for medical trips some aspirants were already angling for his chair in 2019. That is not peril either because there must be elections in 2019 whether the president is healthy or not. To allege that persons angling for 2019 as are “those who are seeking to preserve Northern rule” is very unfair because I have heard some aspirants saying it is the Igbo’s turn in 2019, or else.

ICG’s report said “... some of Buhari’s Northern and Muslim loyalists are illdisposed toward Osinbajo, from the South West and Christian. They fear that in 2019 Osinbajo might run for and win the presidency, as former President Goodluck Jonathan did following President Umaru Yar’adua’s death in 2010. That would violate an informal understanding to rotate the two-term presidency between the mostly Muslim north and largely Christian south, which has been in place since the return to multi-party democracy in 1999 as a way to address Nigeria’s delicate ethnic-religious balance.” Again this is a stretching of fact in order to reach a predetermined conclusion. There must be quite a few people in Nigeria who are not predisposed to Osinbajo becoming president in 2019 or earlier, but not all of them are Northerners or Muslims. Some Southerners and or Christians may not want him to become president simply because they also want to become president or vice president or because they support someone else. Among many other reasons, some Southerners may not want another Yoruba president; some rival church members may not want an RCCG pastor as president; and some regular politicians may not want a bookish professor who does not play normal Nigerian politics. There are even some who will not want Awo’s grandsonin-law to become president. It was therefore unfair of ICG to focus entirely on “Northern Muslim Buhari loyalists.”

I don’t think there is much worry inside Nigeria as to what could happen if Buhari does not complete his term. As recently as seven years ago, such a scenario occurred in Nigeria and it was resolved in strict accordance with the Constitution. As a matter of fact, a head of government died or was killed in Nigeria on five occasions since 1960. Three of them were military rulers while two were democratically elected rulers. It was only in two instances in 1966 that the “correct” procedure was not followed in the succession. That Army Commander Major General J.T.U AguiyiIronsi asked the assassinated Prime Minister Abubakar Tafawa Balewa’s rump Cabinet to hand over power to him in January 1966 so he could “suppress” the Major Nzeogwu-led rebellion was irregular, to put it mildly. The same thing happened six months later when Army Commander Lt Col Yakubu Gowon took over following Ironsi’s murder. Otherwise, succession was fairly smooth when General Murtala Mohammed was killed in 1976; when General Sani Abacha died in office in 1998 and when President Umaru Yar’adua died in office in 2010. ICG should therefore look elsewhere for evidence of succession crisis.

ICG’s report recommended that “To renew confidence and further reduce north-south suspicions as well as ensure stable federal governance, the EU, along with member states most closely engaged with Nigeria, should *Encourage transparency about the president’s health as a matter of public accountability to dispel rumours of a Northern conspiracy to keep him in power even if incapacitated *Send strong private or public messages to both military and regional political leaders against unconstitutional actions, particularly military intervention *Press all parties to abide by constitutional provisions, particularly to achieve a smooth transition if Buhari is unable to continue in office.”

Buried deep inside some good concerns are some mischievous ones such as “a Northern conspiracy to keep him in power even if incapacitated.” In this statement, ICG departed from the standard Western exhortation about the need to avoid undue profiling that ropes large groups of people into problems that they had no hand in. If a small circle around the president were to hide his true medical condition away from the public, how is that “a Northern conspiracy”? When such a thing happened in 200910, Nigerians newspapers did better by accusing a “cabal” of being responsible. In Nigeria we have paid a high price before for such careless profiling, such as in 1993 when some people rushed to allege a “Northern conspiracy” to snatch away Chief M.K.O. Abiola’s election win even though majority of Northerners voted for him in the election and all but a few Northerners did not know why the election was annulled by a military government.

ICG’s report then turned to “Deepening separatist agitation in the Igbo-dominated South East, spurred by perceived political and economic marginalisation.” Referring to Arewa Youth groups’ so-called notice for Igbo traders to quit the North, it said, “Although northern state governors disavowed the declarations while Acting President Osinbajo consulted with both northern and south-eastern leaders to defuse tensions, the youth groups have not withdrawn their demands. Should they seek to enforce them or should mobs take matters into their own hands, there could be violence and large-scale population displacements. Attacks against Igbos or other southerners in the North might lead some delta militants to target oil companies, either to pressure the federal and northern state governments to stop anti-Igbo violence or to cover criminal activities.”

This sounds suspiciously like giving ideas to criminal groups. However, it is a good reminder I think that the government together with Northern leaders should get the Arewa youth groups to formally disavow their so-called quit notice, which they had no intention of carrying out in the first place but which could be hijacked by hoodlums as the October 1 “deadline” looms.