Rice revolution: Officials, farmers flaunt different statistics …Figures not accurate – Expert …It’s not good for national planning – Gov Badaru
On Tuesday August 15, the Director of Agriculture at the Kano office of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Muhammad Adamu, while inaugurating the Rice Millers Association of Nigeria (RIMAN) said local rice production in Nigeria has now reached 15 million metric tonnes annually.
He said the development means that the country will now be saving about N300 billion which it hitherto spent annually on importation of the commodity.
Alhaji Adamu stated that in Kano alone, 1.2 million metric tonnes of rice was produced in 2016.
With the significant increase in local production he said efforts are being made to make the local variety qualitative and more attractive to Nigerians. He said the country expects to begin exporting rice to West African countries by 2018/2019.
Adamu said about 34 states in Nigeria are producing rice, with many now producing three times a year.
However, farmers do not think the country has reached 15 million metric tonnes production level as stated by the director, which is about twice the domestic consumption demand of 7.5 metric tonnes.
Alhaji Aminu Goronyo, National President of Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN) in an interview with Daily Trust recently said from the record they have of 2016, the production level increased from 3.5 million metric tonnes of 2015 to 6.5 million metric tonnes in 2016.
He noted that the domestic consumption rate is between 6.5 million and 7.5 million metric tonnes maximum per annum. He said 2016 was the year rice farmers witnessed massive production of the staple commodity and that from 2015, the production continued to increase in every production circle.
Alhaji Goronyo said the statistics also covered both the registered and unregistered rice farmers in the country.
The leader of rice farmers said their statistics was verifiable, explaining that the production per year was arrived at “through the quantum of paddy sold because RIFAN is structured across the four levels of the rice value chain - production, processing, packaging and marketing.
“So we have the data for the rice paddy sold. That is where we know the exact quantum of rice produced,” he said.
On its part, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its Director of Communications, Mr. Isaac Okoroafor, said its Anchor Borrowers Programme, which was launched by President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday November 17, 2015 in Kebbi State has produced 2.1 million metric tonnes of rice.
The apex bank, a few months ago in a statement, said that “as at March 31, 2017, N33.34 billion had been released through 12 participating finance institutions in respect of 146,557 farmers across 21 states cultivating over 180,018 hectares of land.”
The different claims about the quantum of rice produced is not easy to be verified, even though production has gone up significantly.
Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State has stated that a working blue print to upscale rice production will help every farmer to produce at least six tonnes of rice per hectare at N210,000 per hectare covering cost of farm inputs.
“We have had very successful dry and wet rice farming seasons and as a result, farmers in Kebbi State recorded at least 1.4 million tonnes of rice in 2016,” he said while fielding questions from agric journalists in Kebbi.
But speaking extensively with journalists on the issue of statistics of rice production across the state, the Governor of Jigawa State, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, said, “Whatever we say here, we defend it. If they tell you a statistics ask them how many hectares have they put under cultivation. What is the average yield? Then sum the numbers you will see whether the statistics are correct or wrong.
“We try as much as possible not to over budget the production but to give a realistic budget because this is a national issue and it has to do with national planning. So if you give a very high figure and it turns out to be incorrect, it distorts the statistics and that is not good for the nation.”
The governor stressed that officials have to give a very realistic estimate that they are certain to achieve, adding that “how they do the statistics in the ministry I don’t know.”
“During the rainy season, we are expecting to have 411,000 hectares under cultivation. We expect to yield up a minimum of five tons per hectare during the dry season and during rainy season a minimum of four tonnes because in the rainy season you have no control of water so the yield is not usually good. This is the best in the country.
“There are statistics we see out there where people will say they have 7.58 tons per hectare but that is not the average. We have instances where we have nine to 10 tonnes per hectare in specific fields and in most of our clusters we get up to 7.5 tons per hectare, but when you take general farmers average, those that have done good practice and the ones that have not done good practice you will have an average of five tonnes per hectare in the dry season and average of four in the raining season.
“A lot of farmers are doing six to eight hectares while others are still doing 2.5 but when you take the average you will see 100,000 hectares by five which is 500 tonnes and when you multiply 411 by 4 it is about 1.6 million tonnes and when you add up its about 2.1million. So that is what we expect around that region but if somebody asks us we tell them we expect 2 million but they have to give you the correct statistics.
“I know some states will tell you our farmers are doing seven tonnes per hectare but that is the maximum production. When you take the general average there are farmers that will just plant and will not have money to buy fertilizers and the crops will just grow like that and without weeding you will get 1 to 1.5 tonness per hectare but the area will be marked as being cultivated. When you are working out the average such farmers draw the average back.
“Those that work well will get 7.5 to 8 tonnes per hectare and the ones that didn’t do well will get 1.5 tonnes. When you add up everything you will get the average of about five on the dry season,” he pointed out.
The governor enjoined stakeholders to “give the actual statistics so that there will be no shortage of rice at the same time, the price mechanism can be checked based on the production.”
Experts believe the nation does not have any platform where statistics of crop production are collated, adding that ministry officials churned out statistics they cannot empirically prove in the sector.
An agricultural economist, James David, said, “Statistics about production and consumption are guess estimates. Nobody - not even the minister - can tell you near accurate, what we as a nation produce and consume. That is why people cite different statistics.
“Our population is growing rapidly so if anybody uses the 7.5 consumption demand of eight years ago to determine our consumption rate now he is mistaken. How do they come about the statistics? Until government sets up aggregation centres in all markets around the country where all produce are graded and weighed before sale, it will be difficult to come up with verifiable statistics. For now, the sector is not organised.”