ANALYSIS >>

The race to Agodi government house is becoming interesting. The incumbent governor, Abiola Ajimobi, will complete his second term in 2019.

With the return of the former governor of the state, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), analysts believe that it is very clear that the contest is strictly between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP. Ladoja had promised his supporters that he won't contest governorship election again. But he may support a former secretary to Oyo State government, Sarafadeen Alli, Engr. Seyi Makinde or Senator Olufemi Lanlehin to get the PDP ticket.

Though Ajimobi has not publicly anointed any candidate for the job, but his recent moves clearly shows he has been shopping for a candidate who has electoral value to vie on the platform of the APC. There are speculations that he has interest in the former governor of the state, Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala, to vie on the platform of the party because of his credibility and acceptability in the state.

What makes the game more interesting is that if Ajimobi succeeds in producing his successor, he will become the most prominent Ibadan indigene in two ways - politically and traditionally - which many people are wary of.

Ajimobi is the first Ibadan son to be conferred with the highest title in Ibadan land, Aare of Ibadan land. He is the most celebrated politician for becoming two term governor in the history of the state.

A very close aide of the governor, who craved anonymity, told Daily Trust about some moves of Ajimobi to produce a credible candidate who will succeed him in 2019 and how to win the political war.

Oyo State has five major zones namely; Ibadan, where Ajimobi hails from; Oyo, Ogbomoso, Oke-Ogun and Ibarapa. The source said the governor is aware that his kinsmen in Ibadan land, which contributes 55 per cent of the total votes in the state, may give him some tough time in 2019. But he still believes that if he presents a credible candidate that has electoral value in Ibadan, they may not resist him and that may help the party to triumph in the next election.

Among his strategies, according to a source, was the elevation of 21 high chiefs to beaded-crown kings in Ibadan land. He noted that Ajimobi believes that with the promotion of the high chiefs, each of them, will work for him and his party in their respective domains.

He has succeeded in winning some of the social groups to his side in Ibadan land because some of them, including the Central Council of Ibadan Indigenes (CCII) supported the reform of the Olubadan chieftaincy.

The source also said many political leaders in Ibadan land were having secret meetings with him, though many were sitting on the fence watching for where the pendulum will swing come 2019.

However, his political opponents, including Senator Rashidi Ladoja, believe that the elevation of the high chiefs is the end of the road for the party and Ajimobi in Ibadan land as he may not enjoy the support of the Olubadan and Ibadan elite come 2019. They are dwelling on the crisis to discredit the governor and the APC so that the electorate will go the other way in 2019.

Meanwhile, the Oke-Ogun zone has been clamouring for power shift for long. Unfortunately, the zone lacks credible candidate for the 2019 race, says the source.

Among the aspirants from the region is the current minister of Communications, Barr. Adebayo Shittu, who is leaning on the shoulder of the President to clinch the ticket of the party in the state. Ajimobi and Shittu are perpetual political enemies. To cripple the minister's political relevance, Ajimobi has appointed many Oke-Ogun people to juicy offices. At the moment, Shittu has no members of the state party executive on his side. He has been engaging in verbal assault with almost all the traditional leaders in the state.

Another aspirant is the former chief of staff to Governor Ajimobi, Professor Adeolu Akande, a close associate of a former vice president, Atiku Abubakar. Some are perceived to be pretenders. Therefore, the governor may not really give his support to them.

The source further revealed that Ajimobi believes that Ibarapa zone may support his candidate because he returned speakership to the zone after over 30 years.

Akala is from Ogbomoso, if he emerges as the candidate of the party, the six local government areas in Ogbomoso land may be compelled to support his candidature as their son. Akala, recently received the only surviving PDP member of the House of Representatives in Oyo State, Hon. Segun Dokun Odebunmi, in the APC when he visited him in his Ogbomoso country home. Though, many of those who defected to the APC have not made their defection public, but some have been romancing the party leadership in the state.

On the other hand, one of the PDP leaders in the state told our correspondent that the party was aware that 2019 may portend danger for the party if it refused to take power from the ruling APC. As a result of that, the party is managing its affairs carefully, adding that the national secretariat had invited the two factions in the state and resolved their grievances.

The PDP source further said the party was just waiting for the ruling party to choose a candidate from outside Ibadan land so that the PDP can field an Ibadan indigene to tackle the APC candidate in 2019. He said the reason for that strategy was hinged on the fact that Ibadan people would prefer their own son whatever the case to any other zone.

He said, “For you to know we are managing our affairs carefully, did you hear any protest after our congresses? We have been out of government in Oyo State since 2011 and we are tired of the way the APC is ruling with impunity.

“Let me tell you, come 2019, PDP will return to power with the return of our leader, Senator Ladoja. The two factions have been invited to Abuja and all the issues have been resolved,” he said.

As part of the moves to ensure the party's victory in 2019, he said the leadership had convinced Chief Ladoja to leave the stage for the younger aspirants so as to enjoy the support of everyone in the state.

Ladoja, while featuring on an Ibadan-based radio station, Fresh FM programme, Political Circuit, said he is no more interested in the governorship race in 2019, adding that he had personal reasons for his decision.

Also, while supervising the recent congresses in the state, a former Senate president, Adolphus Wabara, told reporters that the party had secret moves to ensure that it takes over from the ruling party in the state, adding however that he cannot reveal those secrets to the media.

Will the permutations of the two political parties work with the masses are now better politically enlightened and informed? Time will tell.