N805.7bn transmission Master Plan

The federal government launched a 20 year least cost transmission Master Plan in January 2018. The Plan for the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) outlined steps to attaining 10,000 megawatt (MW) electricity wheeling capacity by 2020.

The Master Plan envisages reaching a wheeling capacity of 15,000MW by 2025 with N805.7 billion ($2.238bn) funding from eight foreign banks. The $487 million from the World Bank which part of the funding requirement was approved last month. The direct offshoot of the Master Plan is the Transmission Rehabilitation and Expansion Plan (TREP) being implemented through the Nigeria Electricity and Gas Improvement Project (NEGIP), a facility from the World Bank.

The Plan presented by Fichtner, a German consultancy firm outlined the targets of wheeling capacity envisaged in the 20 year period from 2017 till 2037. It also stated the steps TCN and other key players in the power sector value chain must take to attain the targets.The Plan according to its timeline focuses on the establishment of generation and transmission plan that meets national electricity demand. By year 2020, the transmission system is expected to be robust enough to wheel 10,000MW.

Records from TCN show that transmission has reached 7,125MW capacity as at December 2017 and with additional 3,000MW capacity, it could reach the 2020 benchmark. Part of what TCN would do to attain this target is the development of a network model to rehabilitate the existing system through reconducting weak transmission lines, and expanding the network with over 1,200MW capacity projects that are ongoing alongside some transmission projects under the National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP).

For 15,000MW transmission capacity target by 2025, TCN said it will strive to complete ongoing projects, introduce and complete new ones between 2020 and 2025. The public firm will initiate fresh projects that would be completed by 2030 and 2035 when it expects to have a capacity of 23,000MW and 28,000MW respectively.

The Plan spells out the means of funding for the various projects and their timelines. The document shows that eight foreign loans totaling N805.7 billion ($2.238bn) will finance the plan that will last till 2037. The financial breakdown shows $370 million (about N133.2bn) ongoing funding from two international financiers for the first stage ending by 2020 with a 10,000MW target. It comprises $170m for all projects financed by Agence Française de Développement (AFD) of France in Abuja, and $200m fund for rehabilitation projects from the World Bank.

For the other stages from year 2020 to 2037, the TCN Plans shows the federal government is securing $1.868bn (about N672.5bn) foreign loans from six banks to finance various the transmission projects that will ultimately raise the wheeling capacity to 28,000MW. The funding consists of $200m from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), proposed $272m from AFD and a proposed $200m for projects financed by the Africa Development Bank (AFDB).

The others are projects to be financed with $500m loan from the Export-Import Bank, $486m World Bank loan for the Nigeria - Electricity Transmission Project (NETAP), and another $210m is expected from Islamic Development Bank (IDB) to fund some projects.

The Plan itemised 36 intermediate transmission projects that are expected to come on stream by 2020 and 2020. By 2020, four projects will be completed in Abuja under the North Central region. They consist of 243 kilometres of one 330 kilovolt (KV) and three 132KV transmission lines across New Apo, Old Apo, Old Kuje and Lugbe near the city centre.

It targets three line re-conducting projects of 132KV lines with 243km distance in the south west. Four similar projects of 173km will be executed in the Southeast; two projects spanning 265km will be done in Kaduna region. Four of such projects spanning 248km will be executed in the south-south and one with a distance of 356km in the northeast.

By 2020, analysis of the Plan shows Nigeria is supposed to have excess transmission capacity of 479MW. This is because the document projects a 10,761MW generation capacity, a 10,282MW load capacity including 387MW for export to Niger and Benin Republics.It also expects a 38.6 per cent increase in wheeling capacity from 9,895MW in 2020 to 13,715MW in 2025; a 51.3 per cent rise to 20,746MW in 2030, another 22.4 per cent increase that takes the capacity to 25,397MW by 2035.

This projection excludes the export target of 387MW by 2020, 1,540MW by 2025, 1,831MW by 2030 and 2,000MW electricity by 2035.