Buhari: Why the math gladdens my heart
Yes, the math gives me quality assurance that APC will so effortlessly coast into a scintillating victory in the 2019 presidential election when many factors are taken into account.
As usual, the North will be the main political battle ground, and Buhari will sweep North West and North East with the possible exception of Taraba where votes might be split evenly between the two main rivals. The incumbent president will also sweep Nasarawa, Niger states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). These three North central states have been Buhari’s natural turf even when he was in the opposition party and I doubt if anything can change significantly today. It is possible however, that his main rival - Atiku, can have an upper hand in the other 3 states of the zone that comprises of Plateau, Benue and Kwara; with Kogi as the ultimate decider.
In the South West, APC has a very strong presence. The region have been practicing block voting pattern ever since Nigeria got its independence. And with The APC in control of all the six states in the region, in addition to Asiwaju Tinubu, handling that vital sector, victory for Buhari is already assured!
The same inference and scenario applies to Edo state and AkwaIbom state where Oshiomhole and Akpabio hold sway. No doubt these two states are assuredly for APC ruling party to mesmerize itself into electoral victory for the ruling party.
Indeed the story is no different in the South East with Imo under the control of Mr Okorocha and another SE PDP governor that is strongly said to be hobnobbing and sympathetic to the APC at the top level. This will surely give Buhari additional boost toward victory in February 2019!!
Of course, the above did not take into account the fact that NW and SW harbors greatest percentage of votes, with Kano and Lagos alone controlling more than 10 million votes. It does not also take into consideration Buhari’s natural charisma, acceptability, charms, and positive image of among teeming masses, in relation to his main challenger who lacked any selling points other than petrodollars!!
Incumbency factor will also be of tremendous help but to a lesser degree for the ruling party, especially now that voters are smarter and there’s an electoral machine which reduces rigging to the barest minimum as observed in previous elections both in states and at federal level.
Indeed, one other factor in favour of Buhari’s presidency is the seeming cracks which appear in the wall of the opposition PDP in the aftermath of the convention that produced Atiku as the overall winner. Already there is fear of antiparty by some of the aggrieved PDP governors, notably Governor Wike of Rivers states whose anointed candidate ultimately failed to make an impact. In addition to that, the demystification of the so-called retired generals and Northern Oligarchy who might not be too keen about Atiku’s presidency is also another factor worthy of consideration?
So overall, and all things being equal, when taken into account all the above factors, and many other stumbling blocks militating against Atiku’s chance; like his unfavorable and negative perception image among Northern youth, and his not so palatable pedigree, having being alleged to have not brought any capital projects to his native Adamawa in particular, and northern Nigeria in general, when he was Vice President for 8 solid years; the 2019 presidential elections might just turn out to be a mere reaffirmation of the status quo for the incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari back to the Aso Villa, until 2023.
And as it stands today, the math really gladdens the heart, and there is possibly no vacancy for now until further notice!
Kabiru Tsakuwa, Kano