On conventions and audacious gambles
Political progress is made in a number of ways. Some politicians and leaders choose the beaten track, hugging the relative safety of conventions and settled familiarity to appeal for support or retain power. Others take the road less travelled, risking it all to chart new directions and set new standards. Others simply muddle through, banking on wisdom which suggests that human nature wants the safety in the familiar, and the comfort of knowing that things are changing. Some of the greatest leaders in human history had an acute sense of history and the instincts to move in directions that were severely challenging, yet certain to validate their faith. Some great men are made by history, products of a past that matures around them, elevating frail humans into heroes. Many start with a huge momentum towards radical change, but end up caging progress in the name of change.
If I am confusing you, it is because politics is confusing stuff, and recent political developments in Nigeria are leaving many of us particularly confused. Where, for instance would you place the emergence of Atiku Abubakar as PDP’s flag bearer? It is quite possible that those who pushed his camp to victory may have banked on the conventional and the familiar; the face of the PDP Nigerians are more at home with with; the candidate that possesses all of the traditional arsenals in the PDC’s armory: massive money and extensive networks that link a stubbornly-resistant past with a future strictly controlled by an endangered elite. Atiku will ironically have to campaign for change against an administration that said it was literally the embodiment of change a few years ago. Buhari’s APC will need to find new grounds to avoid accusations that it is stuck in the conventional, and cannot free itself from the shackles of a lethargic past to offer anything but the same.
The breathtaking shambles which APC has made of its primaries will confound its most faithful supporters who are convinced that it plans to win the 2019 elections. If its worst enemies had designed a disaster for this party, they could not have done a better job. Unless, of course there are hidden codes in the unending din of protests and indignations which trail the party’s first real attempt at internal democracy. For instance, President Buhari could be gambling that his popularity as the virtual embodiment of the party will cancel every setback it has suffered from its widely-disputed primaries. Or, perhaps, APC has some secret knowledge of the deep unpopularity of the opposition, particularly the PDP, such that it can gamble away huge assets because it cannot be hurt. It is certainly puzzling that its chairman, Adams Oshiomhole and party leadership, its famed fixers like Tinubu, powerful governors and a few others who have one or both ears of President Buhari will be so opposed to each other on major issues that have the potential to make major differences to electoral fortunes.
Hardened gamblers may discern a sleight of hand in the furore around APC’s Imo primaries, particularly in the light of the pivotal role in the fate of this party in Eastern politics. Amosun’s anger and the seeming failure to assuage it in spite of his intimate relationship with Buhari will puzzle many observers who are not versed in the antics of seasoned gamblers or famed bunglers. There are many other puzzles and other curiosities around Zamfara, Bauchi, Adamawa, Kaduna and all over the land that suggests that APC is setting new standards in selfdestruct, or is assured of an inner strength less visible to the trained eye that will paper over all of its current woes at the critical hour.
The prize for the most audacious gamble, however, must go to the intrepid governor of Kaduna State, Malam Nasir el-Rufai. This is the governor who has selected a female Muslim from the southern part of the state to be his running mate, the first democratically elected governor, Christian or Muslim to do so. Ordinarily, this move will fall nicely in place with the image the governor likes to carve for himself: a trail blazer. This however is not just about the governor firming up his image. It is a bold move that could go horribly wrong, or, in succeeding, could change the face of Kaduna politics beyond recognition. What could go wrong? First, in a state with religion firmly embedded into its political DNA, the choice of a female Muslim from a section long pampered into an undeserved parity will alienate almost every voter who is not a Muslim from the governor and his party. A Muslim-Muslim (woman) ticket will deepen the religious divide in a state that had shed too much blood for faith, particularly from the southern zone where there are considerable populations of both faiths intimately coexisting. Most Christians will see this decision as a supreme act of hostility from a governor they had never embraced warmly. If a Muslim-Muslim ticket wins in Kaduna State, the political profile of the Christian population will be radically lowered, while the standing of the Muslim population in Southern Kaduna will be considerably enhanced. Both scenarios will have serious implications for ethnoreligious relations in the state and the North. For now, what is certain is that this decision will pitch Muslims against Christians as the campaigns begin to tap into rich reservoirs of passions around religion in the state.
A Muslim-Muslim ticket could work for the governor in a state with a Muslim majority, but only if all Muslims support the ticket. The problem here is that the governor is unpopular in large chunks of the Muslim population. Many will also see the choice of a female Muslim as additional effrontery from a governor not famous for respecting popular values. There could be some support for the choice of a female running mate, but it would have had a lot more traction among the southern, Christian population, the very population the governor appears to have written off by this choice. The task of the governor to pull off this gamble will not be made easy by those among his Muslim supporters who have agonized over the refusal of governors in the north with large Christian and Muslim populations like Plateau, Benue and Taraba to appoint Muslim deputies. There could be some strategic leverage the governor hopes to utilize in what appears as an audacious gamble, but it will take considerable time and a lot of hard work to reveal. Like all gambles, you win or lose as much by what you hold as by what is in other(s)’ hands.
Jamila Abubakar wrote this piece from Abuja