Class and cluster in Nigerian politics

You may be enjoying the luxury of knowing the winner of the presidential elections conducted last week in Nigeria as you read this. As I write, I do not have that luxury, thanks to the unnecessary and cumbersome manner we have insisted on receiving and relaying presidential contest outcomes. Like all Nigerians, I have been part of the drudgery and excitement of the campaigns, all the way from the internal processes of the major parties to the tedium of sitting for hours and hours before television sets or listening on radio waiting to hear which parties won 12 votes and which got a million. In between, we had the emergence of two northern Muslims in their 70s claiming to have powers to put new life into a nation that desperately needs new, strong and visionary leadership.

President Buhari has just governed for four years and is basically asking for another four to make amends for the first four. Former V-P Atiku is laboured with image issues leading resurgence of a humbled PDP, but only as a vehicle for an ambition to replace a poorly-performing Buhari. We had INEC postpone the elections for a week because it was not ready after four years of advance notice. Millions of Nigerians have decided not to vote after the postponement because they simply couldn’t afford it. This may be the election with the lowest turnout and quite possibly with the narrowest margin of victory since 1999. In spite of the historic peaceful transition of 2015, few are confident that violence and corruption will not have a major say in the outcome. Social and economic class of many voters and ethno-regional and religiously-driven clusters are going to determine who emerges as president.

The hard core of the predominantly northern voters that consistently gave Buhari their votes since 2003 have never wavered from the faith that he is pro-poor. Interrogating that mystique does not reveal a revolutionary or a radical, anti-establishment leader. He is not a class fighter, utilizing his charisma to demolish the class of the wealthy and the privileged, building movements and systems that will entrench a new order. His is motivated by a personal drive to settle scores, chase corruption around and within existing institutions, and basically leave the system scared enough to remember his watch. Nonetheless, he has appealed to a class of the poor with a rich history of grievance against power and privilege. Aminu Kano and Obafemi Awolowo had tapped into that rich reservoir in the old North and West. Aminu Kano set in motion a resistance ideology and movement that outlived him to some degree, but its elitist character was further hijacked by new elite and used as its platform in severely restricted spaces. Awolowo built an empire from a combination of ethnic and populist sentiments that promptly collapsed without him.

Buhari’s catchment area expanded just enough to give him the presidency in 2015, feeding from spreading insecurity in the North. Class, ethnicity and faith had a lot to do with his presidential mandate, as well as strong ethno-religious barricades that were lowered to address the damage from a weakening state. His spectacular success in the North, however, was matched by the strengthening of ethno-regional boundaries in the East and the South-South. A historical internal tendency towards dissent which characterizes Yoruba politics allowed the region to walk on both sides of the street. Within two years into his presidency, security concerns around areas that represented sensitive ethno-religious boundaries in the North had re-built historical barricades, and ethno-regional factors had reasserted their influence over class concerns. The tempting overtures of the Buhari administration to dilute ethno-regional clusters that had remained hostile to him (at some considerable expense to those that supported him) had been difficult to measure in terms of real impact until this election. Now results are pouring in from those areas that show that he has failed to dislodge powerful, hostile ethno-regional clusters.

If President Buhari wins a second term, it will be a major defeat to the Nigerian elite whose hostility to him has never been a secret. The northern fraction of this elite in particular has shown its hands openly in the campaign to oust Buhari. Powers around ethno-religious clusters in parts of the North, South East and South South have asserted their hostility to him as well, so his victory will keep them largely in the trenches. If Atiku wins, it will be a triumph of elite that believes Buhari has run the economy and the country aground. It would be a successful challenge against Buhari’s bulwark which appears unmoved by any argument regarding his performance in the areas of management of the economy and national security. An Atiku victory will create a coalition of the elite and ethno-regional and religious clusters. A Buhari victory will reinforce the status-quo and require a lot more effort to change the basic nature of the Nigerian political economy.

Both candidates will polarize a nation already deeply divided. Whoever becomes president will have to prioritize three basic areas. First, he has to dramatically improve the quality of management of the Nigerian economy. The current drift towards greater levels of poverty is expanding the class of the desperately poor. Nigerian democracy must move from giving citizens the right to choose leaders. It must translate into better governance and economic welfare that citizens can see and live with. Second, he has to move to substantially improve security of the citizen. Too many Nigerians are becoming hostages to old and new security threats. A combination of rampant poverty and widespread insecurity make violent crimes a lucrative industry. Thirdly, he must put in motion processes to address the nature and operations of the Nigerian federal system. The nation needs to engage in a genuine and inclusive search for alternatives to a system that is wasteful and a veritable source of grievance for every class or cluster of interest.

All interests will benefit from a credible election and a peaceful transition to the next administration. The democratic process is the best context for deciding which interests will prevail. But the same process imposes on winners of elections the obligation to address not just the divisions which all elections necessarily exploit and leave behind, but also to exercise power in such manner that they do not continue to be sources of conflict.

If President Buhari wins a second term, it will be a major defeat to the Nigerian elite whose hostility to him has never been a secret. The northern fraction of this elite in particular has shown its hands openly in the campaign to oust Buhari. Powers around ethno-religious clusters in parts of the North, South East and South South have asserted their hostility to him as well, so his victory will keep them largely in the trenches