Worrying challenges of insecurity on agriculture and economy

Whenever we speak of the economy in Nigeria, it is difficult not to bring up agriculture. That is because it is expected to be a significant contributor to the welfare of the Nigerian population, especially in the northern part of the country.

The agricultural sector is known to generate employment and provide food security. It has the potential to reduce poverty in the country. That is why over the past decades, the government had developed strategies for key stakeholders to build an agribusiness economy.

Figures had shown that the policy was delivering sustained success. Between 2015 and 2018, the sector contributed 25 per cent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and accounted for 48 per cent of the labour force. With these facts, it goes without saying that agriculture is an important sector of the economy. The supply of improved seedlings and other updated farming methods produced better agricultural yields than before, attracting growth in the industry. There was optimism that the goal of domestic food security would be met. There were also expectations that export revenue will be generated to compete with the oil sector and support sustainable income and job growth.

However, the sustained level of banditryterrorism in Northern Nigeria has become a challenge for the sector. The large tracts of arable land have now become a safe haven for banditry-terror activities. In just one paragraph, I have repeated banditry-terrorism several times to emphasise the consequences of the country’s tragedy. Institute of Economics and Peace recently reported that Nigerians spent about eight per cent of the country’s GDP to tackle insecurity – close to the agricultural sector’s contribution to the GDP.

It is now common knowledge that the persistent insecurity in the region is a significant contributor to the increased poverty rate in the country. Conventional wisdom posits that poverty breeds insecurity, and widespread insecurity makes it harder to eradicate poverty and hunger.

In a country where pre-existing inequalities exist, the banditry-terrorism also accentuates the extent to which large-scale crises have an uneven impact on families’ economic security. The disparities in education, health, and employment result in the Northern part being less economically insecure than the other regions. The situation also affects people’s productivity and ability to invest in their children’s education and health.

For example, subsistence farming, the primary form of activity in the agricultural sector, is currently less fashionable due to banditry-terrorism. The death of an adult (breadwinner) meant the loss of the primary source of earnings in the household. Farmers are now taking breaks with the hope that the security situation may improve. The experience of economic loss and its prospect impose material hardship. The income precarity due to the state of affairs caused those in the deserted farmlands to struggle to make ends meet. Current data shows that the sector’s contribution is declining. Between 2019 and 2020, agriculture contributed 22 per cent of the GDP and accounted for 34 per cent of the economy’s labour force.

Of course, we cannot deny that COVID-19, inflation, and climate change have contributed to the slowdown of the agricultural sector. The government’s refusal to respect the 2003 Maputo Declaration by allocating 10 per cent of its budget to agriculture is also noted. It will be irresponsible to allow a sector that recently employed almost half the labour force because it will lead to negative consequences. As a matter of urgency, if the government knows other viable sources of employment and income, it must present them to the public. That will avoid digging a deeper economic hole.

There are things that can be done to tackle the complex insecurity issue in the country. Still, I will leave it to the security expert to explain. However, it is crucial to note a general rule about a complex situation. If everyone involved is confused, someone is not telling the truth.

Some things can be done to improve inequality and precarity in the country. As mentioned in one of my previous articles, devolving welfare policy could be a step toward ensuring that agricultural policy is better tailored to local and regional communities. The policy should worry about the immediate effects on the wider community of farmers most affected by their loss of income due to banditry.

The policy should target large scale farmers to strengthen partnerships across the sector. It is vital to reflect on the role of inclusive and efficient cooperatives and producer organisations in supporting small agricultural producers. It should be noted that the farmlands of the subsistent farmers are largely unaffected, which means they can be put into use once insecurity challenges are curbed.

Marginalised communities, young people and women can play significant roles through leadership-driven collaboration. Unlike the developed economies, Nigeria’s population is dominated by young people. That means employing the labour force comes with the anticipation of a rise in income. On the contrary, it will mean large drops in income, primarily if it affects the breadwinner in a family.

The government must prioritise this sector with urgent actions informed by insights and innovation to keep the momentum of growth in the agricultural industry. Otherwise, we may be seeing a similar trend that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. The government cannot wait for the next one to tackle insecurity as some consequences may have permanent effects.

Some things can be done to improve inequality and precarity in the country. As mentioned in one of my previous articles, devolving welfare policy could be a step toward ensuring that agricultural policy is better tailored to local and regional communities.

Dr Nasir Aminu is a Senior Lecturer in Economics at Cardiff Metropolitan University