Global study warns of drop in fertility rate below replacement level by 2100

DECLINING fertility rates, driven by improved education, empowerment, gender equality, family planning and other shifting social norms, reshaping the world’s demographics while promising environmental benefits, pose challenges, making access to fertility care a policy consideration.

A recent study, published in the journal Human Reproduction Update, by fertility specialists from around the globe, including Australia, Chile, Denmark, Egypt, Greece, The Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States, predicts that without accounting for migration effects, more than 50 percent of countries are expected to experience a population decline from 2017 to 2100.

The paper, titled “Declining Global Fertility Rates and the Implications for Family Planning and Family Building,” warns that by 2050, 77 per cent of high- income countries, and by 2100, 93 per cent of all countries, will have a total fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

The investigation attributes this trend to factors such as economic development, urbanisation, improved education, secularisation, gender equity and family- planning policies, all contributing to the slowing growth of the world population.

“Global TFR ( Total Fertility Rate) is decreasing, which will eventually result in a declining global population and radically changed demographics in most countries worldwide during this century. Although all are declining, major regional differences in absolute TFR numbers remain. While a beneficial impact on the environment is anticipated, these drastic changes will have major societal and economic implications that will severely challenge nations and the global community.