Rethinking Nigeria’s national security challenges

Ellis likens Nigeria/ South Africa Paris 2024 Olympics qualifier to boxing match

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THERE is nothing esoteric about the concept of national security hence, its narrow definition, simply implies the security of the nation. In its wider and more practical sense, it denotes the physical security of a nation and its people, ditto the geoeconomic security and welfare of its people.

The authors, Blackwell and Harris in War by Other Means ( 2016), characterise geoeconomics as “the use of economic instruments to promote and defend national interests, and to produce beneficial geopolitical results; and the effects of other nations’ actions on a country’s political goals.” Accordingly, national security within this treatise is used in both senses.

The rationale for national security is inferred from its description. It is one reason why section 14 ( 1), ( 2) ( b), 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria ( as amended) establishes the overriding function of the state: “security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government.” That said, constitutional provisions are one thing, the capacity, determination, means, and proactive political will to sustainably enforce those aims are another.

Thus, to a greater or lesser extent, virtually every country around the world is dealing with a major national security challenge or the other; a phenomenon demonstrating the toxic volatilities, uncertainties, complexities and strategic ambiguities confronting nation- states today.

These emanate from the burning desires: of domestic and foreign neo- extremist terrorists to enforce their ethno- religious ideologies on secular or non- secular states; superpowers seeking to impose their geopolitical worldviewon weaker countries; coup- plotters seeking to violently or non- violently subvert the established democratic order on factual or imagined assertions of leadership failure; for financial rewards and state sabotage; to criminal networks and drug gangs seeking to resist arrest and prosecution by law enforcements etc.

Contextually, notwithstanding Russia’s superpower status, robust intelligence capabilities and vast military prowess, approximately 130 people were killed and over 180 people critically wounded in a vicious terrorist attack on March 23, 2024; since claimed by Islamic State Khorasan ( ISIS- K). This, as the Russia/ Ukrainian war persists with greater ferocity and approximately 500,000 casualties in total ( NYT); ditto external involvement with Ukrainian NATO allies spending over $ 170 billion in military/ technical assistance. Whilst Russia, is supported by de facto axis of resistance countries, Belarus, Iran, Myanmar and North Korea et al. And, effective February 29, 2024, national security has completely broken down in Haiti, imperilling the country’s Prime Minister, Ariel Henry’s attempt to return to his country, in what’s being heralded as a de facto coup.

The Israeli/ Palestinian war, which commenced on October 7, 2023, was triggered, in part, by the massive failure of Israeli intelligence. That critical lacuna facilitated the Hamas attacks, which claimedover 1,000 lives and Israel’s devastating response, which, so far, has claimed over 30,000 Palestinian lives and destroyed Gaza.

Pursuant to a musical concert on May 22, 2017, Manchester Arena, UK, was attacked in a suicide attack facilitated by Islamic extremist, Salman Abedi, supported by his brother Hashem Abedi; resulting in 22 fatalities and injuring 1,017 people. So, the connecting thread in the national security dynamics of the aforementioned examples is the monumental failure of pivotal intelligence, the corollary of which was the absence of viable security deterrence which, in turn, resulted in high casualties and, in the Israeli/ Palestinian perspective, an ongoing war, which has already spread to Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and the Red Sea.

The material point therefore is not whether there should be national security but, and crucially, the cogency, integrity and reliability of the intelligence which underpins national security? Is it utilised confidentially, proactively and sensitively in the right quarters?

How are recreants, saboteurs, stool pigeons andturncoats, within established military/ paramilitary establishments identified, prosecuted and ( if guilty) punished to safeguard the integrity of national security? How are patriotic men/ women of the Nigerian armed forces and national security apparatus, incentivisedwith morale- boosting policies?

For starters, Nigeria has battledexternal and home- grown ethno- religious terrorism against Ansaru, Boko Haram ( BH), ISIS, ISWAP et al, socalled farmers/ herdsmen clashesand so- called unknown gunmen for over a decade; and, despite its many imperfections, genuine tribute must be paid to the heroic efforts of thearmed forces, many of whom lost their lives or suffered life changing injuries in the quest to protect lives and property, thus safeguard national security.

The statistics are pretty grim. Statista, reports that more than 22,900 persons were killed through 2011 and 2023 in clashes involving Nigerian armed forces and Boko Haram. In 2014 for instance, 276 young students were kidnapped by Boko Haram in Chibok, Borno State in a catastrophic failure of intelligence and national security. More than 100 of those girls were reported to still be in captivity as of April 2021 whilst at least six, were presumed dead! BH has also been implicated in thousands of deaths in neighbouring West African states notably Cameroon, Chad and Niger.

As recently as March 14, 2024, officers and men of the Nigerian army, were ambushed and killed in Delta State. According to Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, Director, Nigeria’s Defence Information “troops of the 181 Amphibious Battalion, Bomadi

Local Government Area ( LGA), Delta State, while on a peace mission to Okuoma Community in Bomadi LGA… were surrounded by some community youths and killed…” Those killed included a Lieutenant Colonel, two Majors, one Captain and 12 soldiers.

On March 7, 2024; 276 students were kidnapped in Kuriga, Kaduna, in yet another demonstrable breach of national security. Whilst the military authorities on a brighter note, announced the rescue of the 137 of those hostages more than 100 kilometres away in Zamfara State, the fact of the matter is that these major security breaches should not have occurred in the first place. On Tuesday, January 23, 2024, following a terrorist incident in which approximately 30 persons were killed in the Kwahaslalek precinct, the governor of Plateau State, imposed a statewide curfew. Barely a month before that, London’s Financial Times reports that approximately 160 people were killed on Christmas Eve 2023, by terrorists in coordinated across 20 communities in the Bokko and Barkin Ladi areas of Plateau State in Central Nigeria.

Associated Press, reported that although no group took responsibility for the heinous attacks, “blame fell on herders from the Fulani tribe, who have been accused of carrying out such mass killings across the north west and central regions where the decades long conflict over access to land and water, has further worsened the sectarian division between Christians and Muslims in Africa’s most populous nation” These attacks prompted the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, to call for the Nigerian authorities to “conduct, prompt, thorough and independent investigations into the attacks…”

Furthermore, Dr Olowu Olagunju, an academician at Abuja University opines that “farmer herder- clashes has been reported in 22 out of 36 ( 61 per cent) states in Nigeria with the NorthCentral zone having the highest incidences in the country. The crisis has resulted in lethal violence which accounted for over 60,000 deaths since 2001, a death toll that was higher than that of the Boko Haram insurgency.”

In conclusion, significant multi- dimensional social, political, economic, ethnic and religious skirmishes have contributed to an avalanche of deaths and destruction in the country occasioned by the failure of intelligence and variable degrees of political will which, combined, imperil national security.

Nevertheless, when the going gets tough, the tougher- than- tough, proactively gets going. Given the political will, the rational expectation therefore is that the following key recommendations will assist in sustainably enhancing Nigeria’s national security:

The creation of a dynamic national security risk management awareness system called: Smarter Protection Against Terrorism ( SPAT) with three levels: Tier 1 ( Routine Vigilance); Tier 2 ( Imminent Risk of Attack) and Tier 3 ( Real Time Attack). From a nimble strategic management angle, thiscould be domiciled in the Office of the National Security Adviser and, crucially, be interoperable with all educational institutions, military offices, the general public, major telecoms platforms and all broadcasting firms in the public and private sectors.

The advantage is that the completeness, currency and integrity of the system will help save lives in that intelligence is provided to the general public via a dynamic early warning system daily via digital devices.

An immediate moratorium on open cattle herding given the nexus with terrorism in 22 out of 36 states of the country; and introduction of legally enforceable ranching in willing states. Cattle herding is a private- business like fish farming, animal husbandry and related agroeconomic activities; and there is no coherent logic for its preferential treatment by the government given its toxic brigading with terrorism and the associated loss of life and disruption of human activities nation- wide.

Amoratorium on free movement within ECOWAS and tougher border controls on national security grounds. Nigeria’s borders are notoriously porous, which itself, offers a magnetic attraction for criminals, malcontents, nihilists and terrorists, and international terrorist networks.

Home schooling and technology- based alternatives should be seriously considered for students in those states most susceptible to terrorist attacks. This will minimise the significant risks associated with the abduction of students in schools, thereby saving lives. The inference here is a greater investment in technology- based infrastructure nationwide which could be undertaken via PPP delivery models or entirely private- sector led.

Recasting Nigeria’s security architecture to accommodate state police options, qualitatively increasing the numbers of police and service personnel nationwide to enhance more effective national security coordination at the federal and state levels; whilst tackling pivotal supply chain vulnerabilities in the mining sector and compulsory security clearance for all employees therein. Embedding incentivisation, troop rotation, and morale- boosting policies for gallant and patriotic members of the armed forces and the nation’s security apparatus; whilst imposing stiffer penalties for stool pigeons and saboteurs with the nation’s security configuration.

Ojumu is the Principal Partner at Balliol Myers LP, a firm of legal practitioners and strategy consultants in Lagos, Nigeria, and the author of The Dynamic Intersections of Economics, Foreign Relations, Jurisprudence and National Development.