PDP, Atiku's Political Miscalculations And Tinubu's Choice of Muslim-Muslim Ticket

As a people, we deserve better leaders at all levels. We deserve a President with the moral fortitude, intellectual capacity, political sagacity, consummate maturity and ability to create wealth for Nigerians and grow the economy

In two previous articles, at least, published in my backpage column and live appearances on both television and radio stations in the run up to the presidential primaries of the political parties, I counseled the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to respect the concept of zoning and rotation of power between the predominantly Muslim North and the predominantly Christian South, especially at this time that ethnic and religious divisions amongst citizens is nearing an all-time high.

My counsel was premised on the fact that since President Muhammadu Buhari, whose eight-year tenure ends in 2023, is a Fulani Muslim from Katsina State, the leading political parties should respect the widely acknowledged and accepted power sharing deal between the North and the South to foster the country’s unity. This agreement is, indeed, in the constitution of the PDP, even though the party, in its desperation to return to power, jettisoned it and chose Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, another Fulani Muslim from the North, because of the superior voting strength of the region. The uproar over this irresponsible decision has not abated till date in the party and in the country.

Nigeria's very deep political cleavages were again bubbled up to the surface recently when the presidential candidate of the APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim from the South-West, against wise counsel from influential party members, top clerics (Christian and Islamic) and notable persons from all walks of life across the country, decidedly picked another Muslim from the North as his running mate, effectively strapping the APC with a hard-sell Muslim-Muslim ticket for next year's presidential poll. Expectedly, his decision has become the subject of renewed debates about the role of politics in a nation that is split along fault lines of religion and tribe.

Most of the concerns of the voices that were raised against the Muslim-Muslim ticket converged on the same issues. The decision was considered insensitive in a country with a relatively even balance of Muslim-Christian ratio over population figures, give or take marginal increases on both sides across time.

Furthermore, the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket was deemed to lack a fair and decent notion of equity as it prominently and predominantly favoured one subset of the population over and above all the others to the point of ostracism, especially at a time when there was the most need to heed the clarion call for unity and give each part of the country a deeper sense of belonging. There was also the concern that it pulled at the worn-out fabric of strained relations between Christians and Muslims in the country, further seeming to pitch one against the other in the unrelenting religious conflict that Nigeria is peculiar with.

Of the concerns raised, the most significant implication was the rationale of political expediency, where it is insinuated that a northern Muslim in Nigeria will not accept or vote for a fellow northerner, who is Christian and running as Vice-President or paired with a non-northern Muslim. The non-northern Muslim in this equation was Tinubu and his politically sagacious mindset laboured over this agreeably skewed but mostly practical reasoning, while mulling over his eventual pick for Vice President, Senator Kashim Shettima.

Tinubu had that political expediency in mind and was making political calculations to give him all the edge he needed to claim victory against all odds at the polls next year.

This political calculation is made even more pertinent when other elements are factored into the equation, such as running against a political heavyweight like Atiku with more than a hefty political base in the predominantly

Muslim North and against a political party with significant party structure in the predominantly Christian South. I am convinced that the power play in Tinubu’s mind was not that he could not find a Christian northerner strong enough to deliver votes from the North, but that going toe-to-toe against someone of Atiku Abubakar's standing required a lot more than simply balancing the ticket for the sake of it. He looked at the practical notion that faced with the options of a Christian vice presidential candidate and a northern presidential candidate, and not just any northern candidate but the Turaki of Adamawa, there was little doubt where an average northerner's vote would go. To correct this imbalance and provide a countervailing force that will tip the scales back in his corner, Tinubu's choice was made for him. He could not fulfill his selfstyled long-life ambition of becoming President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria if he did not make the most of the hand he had been dealt and go the Muslim-Muslim ticket route after critically weighing the consequences. That is why, in my overarching perspective, I believe Tinubu's move was cast in stone the moment Atiku emerged as the presidential flagbearer of the PDP. The failure within the ranks of the PDP to insist on zoning the presidency to the South gave impetus to Atiku's candidacy, which immediately put all opposing candidates at the peril of losing the northern vote en masse to the former Vice President or making desperate moves to counterbalance their own ticket. Tinubu decided on the latter.

It is not without precedent. That act of political expediency was at play way back in 1993, when at the polls deemed to be the freest and fairest in the country, the renowned presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, from the South-West, ran for the country's top post alongside Ambassador Babagana Kingibe on a Muslim-Muslim ticket that was wildly successful and welcomed across the length and breadth of the country.

MKO, as Abiola was popularly known, was successful at the polls, after running a vigorous nationwide campaign that brought many first-time voters to the polling units to give the Muslim-Muslim ticket victory, 29 years ago in the poll that was annulled by General Ibrahim Babangida headed military dictatorship. There was understandably widespread acceptance of the candidacy of the business magnate and philanthropist. And MKO balanced that with the choice of Kingibe to ride to victory. There are similarities in that campaign that Tinubu with his contentious wealth intends to replicate with his choice of Senator Shettima as he plots to defeat Atiku and a surging Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) whose candidacy is being propelled by a highly enthusiastic herd of supporters.

This ploy is the bread and butter of politics. Only the naive will think otherwise. Even in this very primary electioneering campaign, it has been at play. Each one of the leading candidates in every conceivable position, more so at the presidential level, is constantly analysing their positions of strengths and weaknesses in juxtaposition with those of their strongest opponents. It was the basis for regularly postponed congresses and primaries of the two major political parties as each was doing its utmost to first see where the other pitched their tents so as to determine the exact measures and precise calculations to gain the upper hand and win the hearts and minds of the voters involved to their side.

Even with repeated warnings from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that the deadlines for the conventions will not be extended, the parties continued to play a dangerous game of musical chairs in a bid to first see where the other party is headed before making their own moves until the very end when PDP blinked first, thinking the deadline was immutable, only for INEC to provide an injury-time extension that ended up favouring the party in power.

These actions are considered expedient to the political process because, above everything else, the bottom line for politicians is victory at the polls. Everything else is subservient to this ultimate goal. Their actions, moves, calculations, motions and objectives are all geared towards ensuring that they win the next elections and retain popular power at the expense of everything else.

For the politically aware, it is this lonesome drive towards victory that must always be front and centre whenever a politician's motives and decisions are scrutinised to see beyond the smokescreen of political promises and political campaign sideshows. If this is applied to Tinubu's case, it is immediately clear that opting for a MuslimMuslim ticket was an act of desperation to counter Atiku, who was chosen in the opposition party's desperate act to regain political power after its shutout for eight years. It can be reckoned as the catalyst that forced the hand of Tinubu to pick Shettima, even though, as the ruling party, the APC is expected to not play by the opposition's playbook but maintain the high moral ground.

Such self-serving tactics, mostly devoid of emotions and made in cold-blooded determination to seek power for itself rather than for service, go against everything that the true essence of leadership demands. Often, the desperation behind bare-faced political moves that care nothing for party policies and gentlemen's agreements, in Atiku's case, elevates divisions along religious lines and in Tinubu's response, point to a selfish desire for leadership that does not carry with it a call to service, which is what leadership verily is meant to be about.

It is instructive to note that whenever desperate acts like these are involved, it is the people that ultimately pay the biggest price as they lose out in getting the best hands to run the affairs of government, with the country consistently being mediocre rather than aggregating from a pool of the very best.

As a people, we deserve better leaders at all levels. We deserve a President with the moral fortitude, intellectual capacity, political sagacity, consummate maturity and ability to create wealth for Nigerians and grow the economy. If we elect one, the ripple effect will happen at the state and local government levels.

We want a President that will steady the ship of the country going forward and begin the hard work of turning us away from a dangerous decline to anarchy back on the path to peace, security, progress and prosperity. These are the issues on the ballot for next year. It is expedient for Nigerians and eligible voters to keep them front and centre as we continue to critically scrutinise the options available and make choices of our own, not founded on desperation as these politicians are wont to do, but based on what is best for us, our families, our communities and the country as a whole.

I must also add here that INEC has officially announced that the ongoing voter registration exercise would end on July 31, 2022. The commission said it has made arrangements to register people every day of the week until the last day of the month. This is the last opportunity to get registered and to be eligible to vote in 2023. So go out and register now if you have not done so. Don't wait till the last day. Do it today and avoid the rush.