Is NIMET Hobbled by Inclement Weather?
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency is saddled with the responsibility of providing accurate weather forecasts for the aviation, maritime and agricultural sectors, among others. Chinedu Eze writes that despite the efforts to live up its mandate, airlines s
For the Aviation sector, December 2016 will remain memorable, not for good, but for bad. It was the period airlines recorded huge losses due to the harmattan haze, which hampered flights operations. The period was so bad that the air traffic control would give a flight start up only to call the pilot to return to base (air return) because of sudden adverse weather not reflected in the weather prediction earlier published.
But while airlines agonised, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) was commended for providing accurate prediction of weather up to 80 percent, which is more than the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) average. Aviation industry operators have noted that a lot of progress have been achieved by the federal government through NIMET which has significantly reduced air accident due to bad weather, as the agency has been able to predict and provide pilots with reliable weather reports.
However, the grouse of the airlines is that there ought to be 24 to 48 hours prediction that would provide hour to hour results in order to avert air return, which frustrates air travellers, inconveniences them and digs hole in the coffers of the airlines.
Dust Haze
But the outgoing Director-General of NIMET, Dr Anthony Anuforom said there may not be such prediction for flights because there could be sudden weather changes within minutes, like when the low level wind shear gathers in a moment and disappears afterwards. Such appearance cannot be predicted under 48 or 24 hours projections.
“On the weather prediction, we give to the aviation sector, don’t forget that aviation is probably one of the most regulated activities in the world. Our operations are as prescribed by ICAO. We do our job in conformity with ICAO standard and recommended practices. So whatever ICAO says we should do that is what we are doing. That is why we are able to earn our ISO 9001 (international rating), in order words you are doing it the way they said it should be done.
“Now on the issue of whether we can give weather report ahead, yes of course. In addition to those forecast when there is impending adverse weather we give out the information with sufficient insight, at times up to 24 hours or 12 hours. During the Christmas period for instance, whenever I am on duty, that time there were some days when the dust haze was really bad, it affected me. I wanted to travel on December 23, 2016, but we could not travel because of dust haze. I had to wait till December 26 and even that date didn’t work, so I had to hit the road to travel to the east,” Dr Anuforom said.
He explained that the December haze is generated in Niger and Chad; mainly from Niger and the air blows it south ward to Nigeria.
“We have facilities, satellite receiving stations to tell us when there is up take of dust from Niger, now when there is that uptake from the wind trajectory and speed you can estimate when it will hit Maiduguri, Kano, or Katsina, Abuja. At such times we issue such alert. So apart from the forecast, we issue weather alert as well,” Anuforom explained.
While there was bad weather element in the air crashes that happened before 10 years ago; from Sosoliso flight crash in Port Harcourt to ADC crash off Abuja to the most tragic air crash in Nigeria, in Kano, January 22, 1973.
But in the last 10 years since Anuforom became the Director General of NMET, a lot of progress have been made.
There has been installation of Doppler Weather rather at some airports to check low level wind shear; there are also the installation of weather equipment, establishment of laboratory and library and also the training of personnel, which have given rise to improved service delivery in the last 10 years. Airlines and air traffic control officials who work with NIMET gave credit to Anuforom whom they said transformed the agency.
Severe Weather Conditions
Last week, NIMET made 2017 Seasonal Rainfall Prediction (SRP) and warned of severe weather conditions in the country with heavy rainfall and a harsh harmattan haze that would have dire impact on the finances of airlines.
“The 2017 harmattan will cause reduction in horizontal visibility which will cause flight disruptions and loss of revenue due to delays and cancelations and this will not only affect the aviation sector as shipping and inland water transportation are also expected to be negatively affected in 2017,” said Anuforom who insisted that the agency’s prediction is almost 80 per cent accurate.
Anuforom, in an interview with journalists said that in the last 10 years, the agency under his leadership had invested massively in the purchase and installation of high-tech weather gathering and processing instruments.
Manpower Development
He said weather data gathering is not just dependent on technology alone, but on human capital. Anuforom said he inherited an agency with low staff morale due to their poor remuneration and lack of knowledge on the job but under his leadership, NIMET has invested in the training and retraining of the requisite personnel at home and abroad in its bid to ensure that it achieved its target of an accurate weather forecast for Nigeria, as it is done in the developed countries of the world.
“The workers I met could not stand shoulder to shoulder with their peers in the other aviation sector parastatals. But I got them and improved their salary package, the NIMET consolidated salary, and I also ensured that they got the best of training at home and abroad, mostly from the companies that we were purchasing some of our equipment from,” he added.
Anuforom said because of the improvement his administration made in the last 10 years, the Nigerian aviation sector had not recorded any weather-related air crashes in the country.
Equipping NIMET
“Weather poses one of the greatest challenges to air transport navigation. Pilots need accurate weather information to guide them in their flight path so that they don’t run into thunder or lightening or bumpy clouds that could crash the aircraft,” he said.
He said low level wind shear contributed significantly to the Sosoliso and the ADC Airline crashes of 2006.
“When I came in as CEO in 2007, I said we have to end all weather related air accidents in Nigeria and we could only do this if we get the right equipment and the right manpower that can supply the airlines and the pilots with the accurate weather forecast that they needed. And we did. We purchased and installed 13 wind shear alert systems, six weather radars, eight upper air stations, 20 thunder storm detectors, five air quality and ozone monitoring equipment.
“All these were not in existence in the country. And 10 years thereafter we have not recorded any major weather related incident or accident in Nigeria. That is one of my greatest achievements in the last 10 years,’ said. Anuforom whose tenure expires by the end of March 2017, noted that the capability to serve other sectors outside the aviation sector. He however decried the low utilisation of weather data by Nigerians as a culture that was very wrong in the contemporary age of high technology usage. According to him, all the efforts put in by the agency was to boost Nigerian businesses, especially those dependent on weather for their survival. He listed sectors as aviation, agricultural production, housing and urban planning, ocean going vessels and oil rigs operations as those that needed weather data the most for their operations,
“You can no longer afford to plan without weather data for some critical businesses. And the good news is that we have worked hard to achieve over 80 per cent accuracy in our prediction which is significantly higher than the acceptable World Meteorological Organisation’s minimum acceptable threshold of 60 per cent.
“Rainfall and temperature are the basic weather variables that affect activities in most sectors of the economy. And these include, agriculture, tourism, trade, aviation, maritime, and disaster risk management and therefore a prior knowledge of the likely pattern of these variables is vital for effective planning and policy formulation and programme execution, particularly in those sectors of the economy that are dependent on, or directly affected by rainfall and temperatures. So we all need weather information; every business man needs it. In the developed world they hardly plan their businesses or set out on a daily activity without knowing what the day’s weather held in stock for them. Its time Nigerians started imbibing this culture,” he added.
Expanded Services
The outgoing NIMET boss said although the agency had initially set out to supply weather data to the aviation industry, it had however expanded its scope of predictions to cover investors in the power and agricultural sector.
“Our predictions now cover when it is safe for farmers to sow crops, how long the season will last, and the quality of the seasons in terms of dry spells during the cropping season. “This type of forecast we are giving practically minimized guess work about when to plant and when not to plant and it reduces the chances of crop failure especially to large scale farmers. And we urge them to get these predictions in our offices.
“Nigeria’s hydro power generation is expected to experience less boost as a result of normal to below normal rainfall amount predicted for many parts of the country in 2017. Investors in this sector are advised to harness the excess water, especially in places where normal to above rainfall is experienced, for effective hydro power generation for the improved electricity supply to the country in 2017,” he added.
There is no doubt that NIMET has improved on weather in the last 10 years, but to ensure that aircraft operate during harmattan haze, it behooves government and the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NIMET) to upgrade landing aids to Category 2 and Category 3 so that with accurate prediction of weather by NIMET, NAMA would always know when best to deploy its equipment to ensure safe flight during harmattan haze, which takes about two months of every year.