Air Passengers May Rise to 7.8 Billion in 2036

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced that it expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the four billion air travelers expected to fly this year.

The world body said the prediction was based on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association’s 20-year air passenger forecast.

“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” said IATA’s Director General and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac.

IATA said the biggest driver of demand would be the AsiaPacific region, noting that the region would be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next two decades.

At this point, China would displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market (defififined as traffic to, from and within the country), IATA added, noting that this has moved two years closer since last year’s forecast.

“We now anticipate this will occur around 2022, through a combination of slightly faster Chinese growth and slightly reduced growth in the US. The UK will fall to fifth place, surpassed by India in 2025, and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and Turkey will enter the top ten largest markets, while France and Italy will fall in the rankings to 11th and 12th respectively.