Why Buhari May Return as President
Notwithstanding the mounting opposition against President Muhammadu Buhari’s second term, there are factors working in his favour, writes Tobi Soniyi
Despite the growing dissatisfaction with the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, Nigerians may have to learn to live with his governance style for the next five years. This is because, the man, many like to hate, still stands a good chance of returning to power. I know that many can not stand him for another four years but the reality is that, Buhari still stands a good chance of retaining power.
Many must be asking why. Isn’t the economy not bad enough? No doubt, the debilitating effect of the president’s poor handling of the economy has crippled many households. Unemployment remains very high.
Even billionaire Bill Gates not known for criticising economic policy of nations issued a scathing attack on the Buhari’s economic policy.
According to him, the present economic templates being used by the Muhammadu Buhari government do not have the potentials to address the unique needs of Nigerians at present.
Speaking at the special and expanded National Economic Council, held in Abuja last week the philanthropist and founder of Microsoft corporation noted that the federal government’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) identified “investing in our people” as one of three “strategic objectives”. He however, added that the “execution priorities” did not fully reflect people’s needs, ”prioritising physical capital over human capital”.
He explained further saying, “To anchor the economy over the long term, investments in infrastructure and competitiveness must go hand in hand with investment in people. People without roads ports and factories can’t flourish. And roads, ports and factories without skilled workers to build and manage them can’t sustain an economy.”
As usual, those sympathetic to the government have mounted a strong defence of the government’s economic policy without putting Gates’s admonition into perspective. In the view of the vice president, Yemi Osinbajo, by investing N500 billion in social investment programme, the Buhari government has invested in people. No doubt, investing N500 billion in social investment programmes is good but Nigeria needs to do more to convert the nation’s human capital into wealth creation. That is the point Gates emphasised.
Security, a sector where many expected the president to be at his toughest, has turned out to be his albatross.
Though Boko Haram insurgents appeared to have lost the capacity to come to Abuja to plant bombs, the gains recorded in the fight against Boko Haram had been wiped off by herdsmen’s killings.
The Nigerian Army has delpoyed personnel in virtual all the states of the federation. The police are overwhelmed. Yet, this has not stopped the killings in Plateau, Zamfara, Taraba, Benue states to mention just a few.
The killing has reached a level that even government should worry. Soldiers and policemen are being killed.
Recently, former army chief, Theophilus Danjuma not known for speaking against the government in power had to call on civilians to defend themselves against the military. He accused the military of complicity in the killings. This is an usual time in the history of the country.
When economy and security are used as bases to assess Buhari and his predecessor in office, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, many people say they fared better under Jonathan.
With this dismal performance, why should Nigerians be willing to give Buhari a second chance?
No Credible Alternative
If not Buhari, who else? Even though Nigerians generally agreed that Buhari should retire to Daura, they have not been able to agree on who will replace him. The Peoples Democratic Party does not appear to be ready to take back power. With about a year to election, nobody can say precisely what the PDP stands for. The party, so far has not been able to reinvent itself. Many still see the party as a group of looters. It has not been able to reconcile its members after last year convention. Other political parties do not enjoy the spread to challenge the All Progressives Congress.
The reality is that people don’t trust PDP enough to return it to power. The party is also not doing enough to earn the peoples’ trust. The third force has yet to transform into a political party. Yet, only political parties can field candidates during in an election. Buhari will be counting on the south- west to vote him. Despite all the ill-feeling, the south-west may indeed support him. The region was humiliated by the Peoples Democratic Party at last year’s convention. Will south-west vote for the PDP during the presidential election? It is a dicey game.
But with Bola Tinubu campaigning for Buhari, it should not be hard to tell the direction in which the south-west will go. Tough to Defeat Buhari in the North The strength of Buhari is the north. Despite his poor performance, the president still commands a sizeable number of followers in the north. It will therefore be very tough to defeat him in the north. It is not impossible, but it will be difficult especially by a party as discredited as the PDP.
The president enjoys the support of the poor in the north. Even though, he has disappointed them, they are still most likely to support him.
Why the South will Vote Buhari
Perhaps, the most important factor working in favour of the president is that the quickest way for the south to get power back is to support Buhari. Constitutionally, the president is entitled to one more term. Whoever, the PDP brings forward will want to do two terms. Both the PDP and the APC have zoned the presidency to the north. Buhari is most likely favoured to pick the APC’s presidential ticket. Someone from the north will also pick the PDP’s ticket. If the PDP candidate wins, the south should forget power for another eight years. This, the south does not want. Whoever the PDP picks can promise to do a single term of four years. However, after the Goodluck debacle, no one is likely to believe such a promise. The odds favour Buhari.
Even the south-east is hoping that after Buhari, it should be its turn to produce the next president. Those rooting for Buhari in the south- east are using this argument to cajole the people to support Buhari.
Those Campaigning against Buhari don’t have Voters’ Cards
If the presidential election will be held on social media, Buhari will lose. Unfortunately, those who don’t want Buhari to return as president don’t have voters cards. Many of them are not likely to take advantage of the ongoing voters registration exercise. Those who do may not be able to withstand the elements on the election day. Recently, the Independent National Electoral Commission had revealed that thousand of voters cards were not collected.
On the other hand, Buhari supporters, including underage, will register to vote. They will also come out and vote regardless of the weather. This is what will make a whole lot of difference on the election day. To be precise, those who do not want Buhari to return will either not register as voters or not come out to vote on the election day. They will continue to campaign against
Going by past experience, the fear among Tinubu’s supporters is that Buhari will use him to achieve his second term ambition and dump him
him on the social media. Unfortunately for them, those who will vote for the president are not on social media.
Religious Influence
As it was in 2015, in 2019 religion will play a crucial role in the determination of who will be elected as president. Those who want to exploit religion as a factor are already alleging that the herdsmen are being used to wipe out Christians. This, however is not supported by evidence. When the herdsmen kill, they don’t ask whether the farmers that are killed are Christians or Muslims.
This argument was also raised when Boko Haram went on rampage. However, the insurgents went to mosques and killed Muslims. That marked the demise of the claim that the insurgents were targeting Christians.
Nevertheless, those who accused the president of harbouring a plan to islamise the country will resuscitate the argument. Many gullible Nigerians will fall for it and vote against Buhari.
The question, however is, who will they vote for? PDP will no doubt feature a muslim as presidential candidate. May be, PDP will feature a liberal muslim. But on record, there is no evidence to support the allegation that herdsmen and other militias are targeting Christians. Assuming they are, there is also no evidence that they are being sponsored by the president. Nevertheless, religion remains an issue that may work for or against the president.
Buhari Shows no Desperation for a Second Term
The president has refused to allow his desire for a second term to blindfold him. There are many issues the president could have handled better to woo more people to his side. This is double- edged sword that may work against him. For instance, many people are of the view that he could have handled the herdsmen-farmers’ clashes better. Others expected him to change the service chiefs by appointing more Christians as service chiefs. The president, perhaps believes that doing so will offend his base.
APC Controls More States
Once Buhari can allow state governors under the APC to have their way, they will in turn support him. The party controls more states and will likely take advantage of this to win more votes for the president. It is no secret that some of the governors do not want the president back, but they have limited options. This leads us to the amendment of the Electoral Act to change the order in which INEC conducts elections.
Election Sequence
With the general election drawing closer, many are hoping that the National Assembly will override the president’s veto and pass the amendments to the Electoral Act. Despite the arguments to the contrary, even INEC knows that the National Assembly has the power to determine the order of election. It is the National Assembly that gives much of the powers that INEC exercises to it and not the constitution. The power to control INEC is given to the National Assembly. It is even strange that a court of law will stop the National Assembly from performing its constitutional duty of law making. Something is fishing with the preservative order purportedly issued by Justice Ahmed Mohammed of the Federal High Court stopping the National Assembly from overriding the president’s veto.
But if the amendment succeeds, the president will have a battle in his hand. At press time, it does not look like the amendment will pass. Even if it passes, INEC may argue that it is too late to alter the sequence of election.
Is Incumbency Still a Factor?
After Jonathan lost the 2015 presidential election, many were quick to make the suggestion that incumbency was no longer an issue. But that would be a simplistic way to look at it. Incumbency remains a factor. Buhari is not Jonathan. He has already concentrated military powers in the hands of his kinsmen. The Inspector General of Police is his errand boy. This INEC has not shown enough signs that it is independent. In 2019, incumbency is going to be a factor. The president will use all the resources within his reach to win the elections.
What the President can do to Win
To brighten his chances, the president will have to reach out to former allies. This is what he did when he came to Lagos last week to attend Bola Tinubu’s 66th birthday. The president also appeared eager to dump the party National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun to satisfy Tinubu.
Already, the party is reportedly shopping for a replacement for Oyegun now that Buhari has asked the APC’s National Working Committee to reverse the decision to extend the tenure of Oyegun and states’ executives of the party. A former Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole, who has been jobless since he left office as governor, is considered as the president’s favourite to replace Oyegun.
If past experience is anything to go by, the fear among Tinubu’s supporters is that Buhari will use him to achieve his second term ambition and dump him. “If Buhari can do that to him during his first term in office as president and when he knows he will need him for his second term, what do you think he will do to him when he no longer needs him?”, an APC chieftain in Lagos who chose not to speak on record asked rhetorically.
But in politics, reasoning gives way to ambition. If Tinubu can manage to continue to enjoy Buhari’s support after the 2019 election, his plan to take a shot at the presidency will become a reality. Tinubu had said that he would run for the office of president if Buhari would not run. This, perhaps is the major reason why Tinubu would back Buhari after the humiliation he suffered in the hands of the president’s men after helping him to win the 2015 elections.
The President should Communicate Better
There are many good things the president has done in his three years. The minister for information and culture, Lai Mohammed has been the lone voice telling the world what the president has done. As election approaches, all the ministers should speak out. They should tell Nigerians what they have done. The job can not be left for the information minister only. The president should also fund his media team. The time the vice president spends talking about the looting under the PDP should be better utilised by telling Nigerians what this government has done. He keeps on telling Nigerians what they already know. The vice president should hammer more on what this government has done.
Stop Alienating the South-east
The Director General of the Voice of Nigeria, Osita Okechukwu and a few others have been the lone voices speaking for the president in the south-east. Ministers from the south-east should speak to the people of the region. Now that Nnamdi Kanu has disappeared, the president should offer a political solution to the trial of members of the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra who are on trial. Discontinue the case and free those who secured Kanu’s release on bail. They did it to ensure that peace returned to the south- east then.
Obviously, the presidency has been unable to forgive the Senate President, Bukola Saraki for allowing Ike Ekweremadu to emerge as the Deputy Senate President. For this, both Saraki and Ekweremadu had been subjected to series of humiliation. They were charged with poorly investigated crimes or offences they did not commit. It is time to let go. Discontinue the persecution. Stop making unnecessary enemies.
Buhari Can still Lose
Despite all the factors working in his favour, the president may still lose the election. This is because the president has lost ground in many of the states he won easily in 2015.
Besides, the electorates are more discerning. For obvious reasons, the president will find it tough to win states like Kwara, Taraba and Kogi states.
The people in the southwest are becoming tired of Tinubu and his politics. Even the Lagos APC is divided.
In the north, there are many politicians who enjoy good followership among the talakawas (the poor). Many have yet to see the dividends of democracy which Buhari promised them during the campaigns.
Regional powerhouses are also not backing him, former president Olusegun Obasanjo has asked him to retire, former military ruler ibrahim Babangida has also raised a similar objection. Now former army chief, Theophilus Danjuma has spoken out against the killings taking place under Buhari. The president has been at loggerheads with the Senate President Bukola Saraki. Winning the presidential election without these heavy weights will be tough. However, there is still plenty of time to reconcile with them.
When economy and security are used as bases to assess Buhari and his predecessor in office, Dr Goodluck Jonathan, many people say they fared better under Jonathan