POLSCOPE The Oyegun Red Light

The tussle between Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the one who prefers to be described as the National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the National Chairman of the party, Chief John Odigie Oyegun for the soul of the party has finally been decided in favour of the Jagaban of Borgu Kingdom. And the unspoken (but implied) verdict is that the Edo chief should begin to pack his bag preparatory for Bini land.

The two chieftains were former governors, one of Lagos State and the other of Edo State respectively. But both guys do not have equal political weight. By no means!

Tinubu is largely seen as the heart of the party.

Many believe that he has not been sufficiently rewarded given the cardinal role he played in instituting the government in power. No doubt, his grip on the south-west region has been his premium worth in the party. That Muhammadu Buhari is the president today is largely because Tinubu collaborated with him. That collaboration was absent in the past and that was why Buhari kept losing the presidential bid. Although Tinubu nominated the Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, and a few top government functionaries, many believe that he has not been duly and properly treated, especially as his planned foray into the National Assembly was frustrated and contained by the intrigues of digital politics that played him (Tinubu) out.

President Buhari, after declaring, at his inauguration, that he belongs to nobody and belongs to everybody, went ahead to assert himself, albeit by seemingly being his own man. But he was soon hijacked by a cabal in the presidency who seemed to have mesmerised the president. Matters were not helped by Buhari’s ill health and consequent absence from the throne, which gave the cabal a free and unchallenged reign.

With just about ten months to the next general election, which appears even more crucial for Buhari than the 2015 polls, the latter is suddenly realising that Tinubu holds the longer end of the stick. Not deferring to him and his interest, no matter how narrow it may be, may well spell doom for the re-election bid of the president.

So few months back, President Buhari appointed Tinubu the chief negotiator of the party, one who is supposed to reconcile all aggrieved members and parties within the party. And many are they. Tinubu himself is angry with quite a number of individuals within the party, chief of whom is Mr President himself. Although their rift has never boiled over, it is true that the content of the unspoken body language from the duo has been loud enough for any cursory onlooker to notice.

One other man Tinubu has been spoiling to push out is the national chairman of the party. His offence: he tweaked the electoral process that produced the present Ondo State governor, Mr Rotimi Akerodolu. Tinubu had preferred and anointed Dr Segun Abraham, who was eventually outwitted in the internal politics of the party.

Earlier, Tinubu’s political ego had also been bruised when the same Oyegun-led NEC refused to allow James Faleke inherit the votes of the late Abubakar Audu in Kogi State. And that was how Yahaya Bello, and not Faleke (preferred by Tinubu) became the governor of Kogi State. It was thus not surprising that Bello, it was, who announced the tenure extension of his ‘godfather’—Oyegun.

Tinubu did not forgive Oyegun for those deep cuts. And so, he has been waiting for the opportune time to inflict a fatal cut on Oyegun’s political career. The opportunity came with the reconciliation assignment he was given. He soon fired a memo accusing Oyegun of frustrating his reconciliatory effort. His diction was harsh and nearly combustive. But Oyegun, in replying, avoided the incendiary issues and merely thanked Tinubu for some shallow good wishes that strayed into the body of the letter. And he achieved an anticlimax.

While waiting for the auspicious time to release another punch, the National Executive Committee (NEC) announced the tenure extension of Oyegun and other members of the party’s NEC. It was like pouring a glass of bile into a jug of orange juice. The uneasy calm in the party became fouled up. It was taking politics too far, Tinubu must have bellowed.

About a fortnight ago, the APC held its caucus meeting. To underscore his disenchantment with the goings-on in the party, Tinubu clearly stayed away claiming that he had a birthday activity organized by some Lagos youths to attend. It was a protest against the leadership of the party. His deliberate absence was enough message to Mr President that the Jagaban is angry. He (Tinubu) did not see any reason for the extension of the tenure of his traducer. If he allowed it to slip, it would mean he being in political Siberia for a long time to come. He would not brood it. So he moved, latching on strongly to the constitutional provisions of the party that prescribes congress at all levels. Luckily, it was a legal argument that perfectly appealed to Buhari, a man who never wants to circumvent the law, no matter how inconvenient.

So when, the penultimate Tuesday, President Buhari declared that tenure extension for the members of NEC is illegal, Tinubu was literally thrust over the moon. It is instructive that the Lagos chapter of the party had considered legal action against the party’s NEC over the extension plot.

But as if Mr President was in the minority, the NEC of the party, just after the meeting with President Buhari reaffirmed their loyalty to Oyegun thus seeming to present the party on parallel lines.

The governors of the party had leaned towards Oyegun, vowing that the “coup” to throw Oyegun and co out would not be allowed to stand. And for almost a week, the party was technically on the brink of mega confusion and disintegration. Oyegun thought he would wriggle out of it by setting up a technical committee to review the stance of Mr President on the matter.

But all that ended when, for the sake of Tinubu, President Buhari, for the first time since he was elected almost three years ago, decided to plan an official visit to Lagos, so he could attend the 10th colloquium of Bola Tinubu in honour of his 66th birthday ceremonies.

Indeed, less than a week after, the governors who had vowed to resist the sack of Oyegun and co, suddenly mellowed down, read the handwriting on the wall, and pronto, did a full-scale turn around to align with Mr President, declaring that indeed, tenure elongation is unconstitutional, as if they only realized so.

At that, the technical committee (don’t know what is technical about it), set up by Oyegun to rescue him from Tinubu, has been daggered by the governors last Wednesday.

But those still kicking by the side fear that Tinubu’s ultimate plot is to hijack the party structure and use same to support his presidential ambition, perhaps by 2023.

Now that Tinubu seems to have grabbed the hammer and the anvil, will he be kind to those who come in-between?