Agenda for All Round National Development
Gbenga Olawepo
It is a happy homecoming for me 30 years after I spoke at Oduduwa hall as a guest of the OAU Students Union. It was at the height of the advocacy for mass action by Nigerian students who were being galvanized against the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) of the military administration. The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS), Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU), and other mass organizations were up in arms against the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) as a development path for the Nigerian Economy and State. Naira was just exchanging for 7 Naira to a Dollar, which we found most unacceptable, little did we know that the Naira would exchange for N360 to a Dollar someday.
Though slight progress has been made since the advent of democracy in Nigeria in between 1999-2015; Nigeria in all intents and purpose still remains a country classified as “Underdeveloped” making the question of an “Agenda for all round National Development” topical and germain.
With 62% of the population living below 2USD a day, and considered poor, with life expectancy of 51 years, and over 40% illiterate population, bedevilled with a parlous infrastructure such as poor electricity distribution, poor road networks, and dilapidated health infrastructure, the underdevelopment profile is in bold relief.
Though by the sheer nature of superiority of democracy over autocracy, Nigeria made some little gains between 1999-2015. Such gains where almost completely wiped off by 2015 July-2016 when the nation’s economy started contracting leading to her worst economic recession in 25 years -2.4%.
Just for the records, some of the remarkable gains between 1999-2015, were average life expectancy in Nigeria was increased from 46years as at 1990 to 51 years, telephone use increased from 400,000 to 100,000,000 million lines, the economy posted an average annual growth rate of 6% consistently for 15 years leading to the expansion of the GDP to 510 billion USD in 2013. The Nigerian economy thus became the largest economy in Africa over taking the economy of South Africa. However the above gains especially in the economy fronts was so little to match the rate of poverty and underdevelopment of the country, fragile and unsustainable. In 2016 the bubble busted and the economy moved to a negative growth only to be reflated by massive external borrowings. The massive loans taken could only achieve a sluggish growth of 1.5% compared to a huge external debt which quickly grew to about 18 billion dollars in 2 years from a low figure of below 2 billion USD as at May 2015.
We are still waiting for outcome of various studies to show us the impact of what has so far happened to the Nigerian economy and society, since the economic recession of 2016. Current data from the Federal Bureau of statistics are horrifying and the indicators horrendous. FBS statistics reveals that unemployment picked from 6.3% in 2015 to 18.6% by 2017 an increase of 300%. Worst still among the youths, it is a record high of 36% little wonder why there is so much upheavals in the land. Therefore a platform to interrogate the Agenda for all round development of Nigeria, to fashion out a sustainable strategy for growth and development so that the country can live in peace, stability and prosperity cannot be more relevant than now.
Once again, Great Ife has proved truly great for creating the platform for this important discourse.
What is Development?
Development has been defined in multifarious ways by scholars of different shades. In the 70s a tribe of scholars of African Sociology and Economics led by the Guyanist scholar of Africa descent Walter Rodney were pre-occupied with this subject matter; they were known as Development and Underdevelopment theorists.
Walter Rodney in his seminar work “How Europe Underdeveloped Africa” examined development at the individual level as “increased skills and capacity, greater freedom, creativity, selfdiscipline, responsibility and material wellbeing”.
Walter Rodney like his later disciples, Samar Amin, Bade Onimode, Nzogola Ntalaja et al, applied their interrogation of the subject-matter of development beyond the individual to society, and the economy and also adopted models of interpretation of history and characterization of different epochs of development. In the Economic realm, Rodney opines that “A society develops economically as its members increase jointly their capacity for dealing with the environment. This capacity for dealing with the environment is dependent on the extent to which they understand the laws of nature (science) and the extent and manner in which work is organised”.
We must however inform that apart from the development theories other Schools of thoughts such as modernist school, also at one point or the other examined these same concept of development and constructed their own modules.
For the purpose of this lecture, we shall stick to a safe zone by looking out for what is now universally acceptable for measuring development. – The tables of indices developed by the United Nations Development Project (UNDP) as indicators to measure development, this is the Human Development Index (HDI).
Apart from economic growth the United Nations developed a number of indices through which development can be measured from country to country. According to the UNDP the Human Development Index (HDI) was created to emphasize that people and their capacities should be the ultimate source of accessing the development of a country not just economic growth.
The HDI indices therefore include GNI per capital, Health (Life expectancy), Knowledge, (Education, School enrolment etc.).
HOW DOES NIGERIAN FARE UNDER THE HDI?
GNI per Capital:
Nigerian per capital income as at 2016 was 5,438.9 USD 1/3 of the worlds average per capital income. In comparative terms to Asian countries and other middle-income nations who were perhaps at the same level of development with Nigerian at independence in 1960. Nigerian per capital income is disappointing. Here are a few example. Thailand 17,786 USD Chile 24,584 USD, Turkey 26,453 USD, Iran 20,030 USD and Mauritius 21,628 USD. Any reasonable development plan for Nigerian must therefore hope to increase GNI per capital by 7 folds within the next 10-15years in other to achieve a level considered at per with middle income countries.
HEALTH AND LIFE EXPECTANCY
Though we have earlier observed some important improvements in life expectancy in Nigeria from 46.1 years in 1990 – 53.1 years in 2015, the country’s life expectancy record is still depressing compared to Liberia 61 years, Niger 61.8 years, Sudan 64.1 years, and Rwanda 66.1 years and far apart from Cuba’s 79.1 years, Norway’s 81 years and 79.2 years in United States. All the African countries mentioned have gone through sustained civil wars, some pogroms, some civil wars combined with outbreak of epidemics, but still have better life expectancy figure compared to Nigeria.
EDUCATION
While Nigerians in diaspora remains the most educated set of immigrants in percentage terms compared to their various host communities, at home illiteracy level is still as high as 46%.
HDI Ranking
Based on all indices measured in 2016, Nigerian ranked 152 of 188 countries measured in UNDP 2016 Human Development Index (HDI). It fell below Kenya and some other African countries in the West African Sub-Region.
The data from Federal Bureau of Statistics have been equally as damning on the performance indicators on Sustainable Development goals in Nigeria just as the UNDP HDI report. As they “say figures do not lie”.
In the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’S) baseline report 2016 Published by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) most of the indicators are woeful, particularly as it affects the young and the youths. Current data indicate that Nigeria has never so ignored her young people as much as it’s currently doing.
Let us review some few data here: 36% of Nigerian youths are currently unemployed. 20% of youths are currently not in any employment, education or training. They are completely hopeless. For children too, even though not so much is done for them through public policy or family; the adult in the world extract so much from them in terms of forced labour. The FBS study indicates that 47.1% percent of children between ages 5 - 17 are engaged in some form of unpaid labour or the other. It is tragic that our country has become less caring and more vicious in the abuse of her younger population.
WE CAN CHANGE THE NIGERIAN STORY.
Distinguished Guest, Ladies and Gentlemen despite the above negative indicators in Human Development Index (HDI), I remain optimistic about Nigerian development trajectory when we tap and build on the energy, creativity, imagination and the industry of everyday Nigerian which is the most important asset that Nigeria possess beyond her Oil wealth and Natural resources.
As we pointed out at Imperial college London in November 2015 “It is due to the hard work and industry of the ordinary Nigerians the nation’s greatest asset that Nigeria attained a GDP rebased of 510 billion USD in 2013 exceeding that of South Africa to become the biggest African Economy even in the face of her Parlous infrastructure. The fit was a result of the toiling of small scale entrepreneurs who continue to create value without adequate electricity, cottage food processor, without affordable financing, farmers with the scantest of state support artisans, bold and imaginative business men and women, dynamic financial managers, young innovators, creative artist, hardworking professionals and intellectuals.
Credible international consulting groups such as Price Water Cooper share in our optimism. According to Price Water and Cooper Nigerian economy will grow to be the 9th largest economy in the world in 2050 based on very dynamic key drivers of the economy that has to do with the strength of Nigerians people, the size of her market and less with excellence in governance. Below are some of the key drivers that offers possibilities for rapid investment and growth of Nigeria.
I. Nigeria has a robust middle class which according to Standard bank reportedly grew 6 folds between 2000-2010
II. Nigeria has a large market of potential consumers of modern goods and services. This consumers have an attractive profile for investors and manufacturers they already have acquired the discipline to pay for consumption through savings and earnings and have low household debts.
III. The infrastructure deficit of the country is both a challenge as well as an opportunity for investment. Out there in the global market according to Oxford economist and PricewaterCooper, there is about 78 Trillion USD globally to spend within Ten (10) years looking for infrastructure market to domicile. Nigeria’s hunger for infrastructure investment and with a high record of IRR (above 18%) makes it a natural destination for massive investment if simple bureaucratic hurdles that have continuously impeded investments can be dismantled.
To be added to the above strength of the Nigerian nation is the nation’s resourceful diaspora community these community of scientist, intelligentsia, innovators, professionals, footballers and Entrepreneurs are adding golden pages to the Nigeria rising story. In 2013 foreign remittances picked as much as 21 billion dollars to Nigeria, mostly coming from the Nigeria diaspora. The diaspora community will continue to form a major pillar in the architecture of Nigerian Socio-economic development. Even in the face of many other negative stories all over the world educated Nigerians are doing well and making the nation proud. The Imafidon twins Paula and Peter broke the world record in mathematics by passing the Cambridge exams at age 8, being the youngest ever to do so. Dr Victor Olalusi who scored 5.0 GPA in the faculty of clinical sciences at the Russian national medical university in 2013 is arguably the first in the world to do so. There are numbers of Americans of Nigerian decent such as Emeka Echeruo founder of hopstop.com purchased by apple at a price of 1 billion USD, who are doing the nation proud in the ICT world. Young Nigerians at home and abroad are proving their exceptional brilliance; 24years old Oluwatobi Olasukanmi won the Williams Charleny prize for the best first class law at the University of Cambridge. Nigerian youths are not just strong and energetic they are bright and brilliant and they compete well anywhere in the world.
The crisis of Nigeria underdevelopment as we have highlighted above can only be confronted and resolved with a bold agenda and plan aimed at changing the present economy structure of dependence, it must be revolutionary massive and contain the following elements:
i). It must aim within 10 to 15 years to expand the GDP by seven fold in order to be able to provide the needed resources to end poverty and underdevelopment on a sustainable basis.
ii). The New Nigeria Economic Development Plan must aim to encourage Domestic Capital Formation as a source of financing development rather than dependent on revenue from primary products such as oil and solid minerals. Giving present structure of international trade, the more developing countries export primary products, the less value they get. The revenue from exports proceed is usually so little that sometimes, they compete with revenue of just one corporation from advanced countries of Europe and America. Sample-for all the fuse about the high oil receipts in 2013 in Nigeria, about US$50 billion, it compares only with the revenue of Disney world, which was US$47billion.