Vincent Obia

n July 1, 1968, the Treaty on the NonProliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) opened for signature in London, Moscow, and Washington. The treaty entered into force in 1970, and on May 11, 1995, it was extended indefinitely. A total of 191 states have joined the treaty, including the five nuclear-weapon states, which are also the five permanent members of the United Nations – Russia, United States, Britain, China, and France.

After 50 years, the NPT has remained the world’s most pre-eminent multilaterally negotiated nuclear arms control treaty. Except for the UN Charter, no other international instrument has had more ratifications than the NPT.

The landmark treaty covers topics, such as nuclear non-proliferation; international cooperation in promoting the peaceful uses of nuclear energy under safeguards and verification in conformity with the treaty; and nuclear disarmament efforts leading to the elimination of all nuclear weapons.

As the world marks the 50th anniversary of the NPT, questions remain about the future of the treaty and the commitment of the parties.

In a joint statement on June 28 ahead of the July 1 anniversary of the NPT, the depository governments of Russia, UK, and U.S. said the treaty had built confidence in peaceful nuclear programmes and made immeasurable contributions to the security and prosperity of the world.

“The NPT has provided the essential foundation for international efforts to stem the looming threat – then and now – that nuclear weapons would proliferate across the globe. In so doing, it has served the interests of all its Parties and has limited the risk that the vast devastation of nuclear war would be unleashed,” the statement signed by U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov said. “We also celebrate the astonishingly diverse benefits of the peaceful uses of the atom, whether for electricity, medicine, agriculture, or industry. This boon to humanity thrives because the NPT, and the nuclear non-proliferation regime built around the Treaty, has helped provide confidence that nuclear programs are and will remain entirely peaceful.”

The statement also hailed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as playing “a critical role in NPT implementation, both to promote the fullest possible cooperation on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to apply safeguards and verify that nuclear programs are entirely peaceful. An IAEA comprehensive safeguards agreement together with an Additional Protocol provide credible assurances of the absence of undeclared nuclear activities and should become the universal standard for verifying the fulfilment of NPT obligations.

“We pledge our full and continued support to the IAEA and urge others to do the same.”

But in the real world, things are somewhat different from what the three nuclear powers claim in their joint statement. They have remained at variance on many issues relating to a nuclear free world and have very often elected unilateral, rather than multilateral, actions.

NPT review conferences are convened every five years. But since the treaty entered into force in 1970, the parties have failed to reach a consensus at four – 1980, 1990, 2005, and 2015 – out of nine review conferences.

Tensions have grown between the nuclear powers, especially Russia and the U.S., which have continued to modernise their nuclear weapons.

The collapse of the bipolar world order in the 1990s following the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact – a defence treaty between the former Soviet Union and its satellite countries – on July 1, 1991 has given rise to a dangerous multipolar world system under which the world has seen nuclear weapons tests by India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Israel is also believed to possess nuclear weapons

NPT has failed in its original goal of limiting the spread of atomic weapons beyond the five already in possession at the time of its inception – U.S., Russia, Britain, France, and China. And there are no considerable grounds for optimism that the proliferation would stop.

Only in May, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of his country from the Iran nuclear deal signed by his predecessor, Barack Obama, saying it is defective.

“I made clear that if the deal could not be fixed, the United States would no longer be a party to the agreement.” Trump said on May 8 after his European allies failed to convince him otherwise. “The Iran deal is defective at its core. If we do nothing, we will know what exactly will happen. Therefore, I am announcing today, that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.”

Under the deal signed in Vienna between Iran and six world powers – the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China, and the European Union – Iran scaled back its uranium enrichment programme and undertook not to pursue the acquisition of nuclear weapons. In return, international sanctions were lifted, which allowed it to sell its oil and gas worldwide.

The IAEA has repeatedly confirmed that Tehran has fully met its nuclear commitments. But Trump thinks otherwise.

Iran has said it will restart its uranium enrichment if it cannot salvage the 2015 nuclear deal with the European Union after the United States pulled out.

“If our interests are not preserved, we will pull out of the deal and will resume our enrichment to 20 per cent, or any level that we desire to,” Iranian government spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht was quoted as saying.

Iran is allowed to enrich uranium only to about four per cent under the nuclear deal.

The world has not witnessed another nuclear combat after the U.S. detonated two nuclear weapons over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki on August 6 and 9, 1945, respectively, during the final stage of World War II.

But there is considerable apprehension that the increasing lack of consensus among the nuclear powers on the implementation of the NPT objectives leaves humanity with an ever-present threat of nuclear war.