Hard Landing for Theresa May’s ‘Soft’ Brexit
Theresa May’s Brexit strategy faces a double-barrelled assault from Trump and Brexiteers poised to derail it, writes Vincent Obia
ecent resignations from Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet are a clear indication that her plan for Britain’s exit from the European Union faces a tough prospect. But that is made even worse by US President Donald Trump’s unrelenting assault on May’s Brexit strategy.
David Davis resigned as Brexit secretary penultimate Sunday, in a blow to the prime minister’s plan. Davies cited May’s policies and strategy for the impending withdrawal from the EU, a plan that seeks to commit the United Kingdom to the EU rulebook on trade. He said the government’s approach will keep Britain as a “ruletaker” even after Brexit.
“Having watched this process, I’ve been involved in this process for the last couple years, I’m worried about the fine details and I’m worried what would come our way in return,” Davis, who resigned along with his deputy, Steve Baker, told the BBC.
His sentiments were echoed by many Brexitsupporting ministers in May’s cabinet and the Conservative Party. Only two days before the Brexit secretary’s resignation, the former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, called May’s Brexit plan “an absolute stinker” during a meeting at the prime minister’s residence to agree on negotiating positions with the EU.
Though, Johnson backed the proposals at Chequers, he resigned as foreign secretary on July 9, less than 24 hours after Davis quit as Brexit secretary, amid the escalating crisis over UK’s strategy for exiting the EU.
Johnson wrote in his resignation letter, “Brexit should be about opportunity and hope. It should be a chance to do things differently, to be more nimble and dynamic, and to maximise the particular advantages of the UK as an open, outward-looking global economy.
“That dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt.”
Dominic Raab was promoted to replace Davis as Brexit secretary, following a mini reshuffle by May. And Jeremy Hunt replaced Johnson as foreign secretary. But that does not reduce the devastating effect of the resignations, which came barely eight months to the March 29, 2019 target for conclusion of the process of UK’s exit from EU. The process began March 29, 2017.
Analysts say this is the first time since 1979 that two British cabinet ministers would quit within 24 hours of each other, outside cabinet reshuffles.
Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn said at the House of Commons on July 9 that the cabinet ministers had “jumped the sinking ship,” in a mockery of May’s government.
Corbyn stated, while responding to May’s statement in the Commons, “Mr. Speaker, this mess is all of the prime minister’s own making.
“For too long, she has spent more time negotiating divisions in her party than putting any focus on the needs of our economy...
“The team the prime minister appointed to secure this deal for our country have jumped the sinking ship.”
“Far from strong and stable, there are ministers overboard and the ship is listing – all at the worst possible time.”
Brexit’s tough fate is made worse by Trump’s rigid position towards the May strategy. He has criticised May for forcing on the British people a “soft” Brexit scheme that contradicts the much harder approach they voted for two years ago.
An unrepentant critic of European trade policy, Trump told the CBS News on Sunday, “I think the European Union is a foe, what they do to us in trade. Now you wouldn’t think of the European Union but they’re a foe.”
May’s leadership and Brexit are really in a state of crisis, with assaults from its biggest supporters and Britain’s most important ally.
Though the exit of the two staunch Brexit champions does not seem to dampen the resolve of the UK electorate, who voted in a referendum on June 23, 2016 to leave the EU, a vote the Brexiters won by 51.9 per cent in a turnout of 72.2 per cent. And the overwhelming sentiment in the Conservative Party does not seem to be for May’s exit.
But the prime minister faces the problem of how to convince the EU to accept her proposals for a deep, comprehensive, and unique trade deal. She wants a soft Brexit approach that affords Britain a much closer economic relationship with the EU, and to do that, Britain has to follow the EU’s rules and regulations, which means accepting to some extent the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Almost a third of the Tory MPs have opposed this, saying it is not the kind of Brexit they signed up for. The Brexiter leader of the Commons, Andrea Leadsom, has said there must be “no special favours” for EU nationals after Brexit, which contradicts May.
In Brussels, too, rejection seems to await the UK Brexit proposals. The EU is not likely to give Britain the unique deal May is proposing, different from what the body has always given to other countries. EU seems to have laid its cards on the table already, which is to either let Britain have the Canada model, which commits them to operating outside the customs union and the single market, or the Norway model, in which case Britain would stay in the single market and the customs union and be subjected to the organisation’s rules on trade.
May wants a deal that keeps Britain somewhere in-between those two models, to enjoy some services and keep trade between UK and EU.
Analysts say the EU would almost certainly reject this.
But May has also suggested a no-deal Brexit, in the worst-case scenario.
How she would stay in power under these circumstances will be interesting to watch.