‘Bird of Peace’ Flies between Ethiopia and Eritrea, but Challenges Remain
The two Horn of Africa neighbours have made peace after several years of war, but their leaders must now design acceptable strategies for enduring reconciliation, writes Vincent Obia
On Wednesday, Ethiopian Airlines made a historic flight to Eritrea, in the first commercial flight between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 20 years. The flight was the culmination of a peace process marked by months of intense diplomatic activity between the two countries. This has been spearheaded by Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed since April, when he came to power.
Ethiopian Airlines described the historic flight as its “bird of peace” flying to Eritrea to mark the end of a “state of war”.
Ahmed signed a “peace and friendship” agreement with Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki on July 9, declaring an end to a “state of war” that reigned between the two neighbours since a 1998-2000 border war. An estimated 80, 000 people were killed in the war, which led to the shutting of air and routes between the two neighbours.
But following the peace deal signed in Eritrea’s capital, Asmara, during the first visit by an Ethiopian prime minister to the country in 20 years, the two leaders agreed to restore diplomatic relations, and resume air and road travel.
Afwerki made a reciprocal visit to Ethiopia on July 14.
“No one can steal the love we have regained now. Now is the time to make up for the lost times,” 72-year-old Afwerki said in Addis Ababa. Ahmed, 41 and Africa’s youngest leader, echoed the same sentiments, saying, “The reconciliation we are forging now is an example to people across Africa and beyond.”
Eritrea reopened its embassy in Addis Ababa on July 16. And Ethiopia has promised to do same soon.
The restoration of friendly relations between the two countries has been celebrated among their populations and across Africa. Warm congratulations have also poured in from other friendly continents.
Ahmed and Afwerki have made agreements as to the general terms of peace, but they must now get down to brass tacks. They would need to design practical details on how to address the various political and economic issues within their respective countries, which are capable of upsetting the developing peace.
Perhaps, the most important issue is the territorial question. An acceptable demarcation of the border at Badme town, which caused the war in 1998, is a critical issue that needs to be addressed quickly.
A United Nations-backed boundary commission ruled in 2002 that Ethiopia should cede Badme to Eritrea, but the former had refused.
However, amid the latest diplomatic efforts, Ahmed agreed in June to cede the town to Eritrea. When and how he plans to do this remains unclear.
What seems clear is that many in the northern Tigray region, where many soldiers died during the war, are unhappy with the decision to transfer Badme to Eritrea. People there, especially those who fought in the war, have condemned the Ethiopian prime minister’s gesture as an act of betrayal. They have threatened violence if forced to leave.
A researcher with the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, Omar Mahmood, is quoted as saying, “There will need to be some level of local consultation to take their needs into account.” Ahmed has taken some steps in this direction.
In April, Ahmed visited the Tigray regional state, where he addressed war veterans and members of the community. Welcomed by the Tigray president, Dr. Debretsion Gebremichael, the prime minister visited the Martyrs Monument in Mekelle and addressed a public gathering at the Martyrs Hall in the Tigray capital. The Ethiopia-Eritrea war was top on his agenda.
For his agenda to succeed, experts say Ahmed, the first Oromo leader of the multi-ethnic and second most populous country in the continent, needs to build strong regional alliances. Before Ahmed’s emergence, Tigrayans had dominated the ruling political coalition, Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
Port access for landlocked Ethiopia is another issue. To restore economic ties between Ethiopian and Eritrea, sea access is key. Ahmed has embarked on an ambitious foreign policy goal of achieving a region-wide port access, which has seen Ethiopia involving in joint seaport investments with Somalia. Ahmed was at the recent opening of the China-backed Djibouti free trade zone, which constitutes a gateway to international markets for Ethiopia.
Though Eritrea’s ports are not as developed as the ones in Djibouti or Somaliland, experts say Asmara might make demands relating to usage of its ports that Addis will have to agree on to cement the budding peace effort. Ethiopia would need to bend over backward and open doors for trade and investment with Eritrea, despite the Ethiopian government’s huge investments in the search for sea access with other countries.
Already, Ethiopian Airlines has projected to save about $100,000 by using Eritrean airspace and says it will have a 20 per cent share of Eritrean Airlines, according to the spokesperson of the Ethiopian ministry of foreign affairs.
But there is also the issue of whether Afwerki would emulate his reform-minded counterpart in Ethiopia and introduce sweeping political reforms following the end of the “state of war”. Presiding over the only remaining one-party state in Africa, he has been in power since 1993, when he led Eritrea to independence from Ethiopia. With no opposition parties, Eritrea has never had a national election.
The outbreak of a border war with Ethiopia in 1998 had strengthened Afwerki’s grip on power. Now that the war has been declared over, it remains to be seen if he would embrace reforms that are needed to drive the recent changes.