An Unsavoury State of Play
Perhaps, it is safe to infer at this juncture that the die may have been cast as far as 2019 is currently situated. The path to next year’s general election is swiftly assuming an offensive dimension. No doubt, since the journey to the 2019 elections began, no other time had been as defining as last Tuesday, which boasted quite many events in one day – all geared towards the next round of national elections. On that day, the executive and the legislature finally broke loose their evident and time-honoured animosity. The police as a critical institution of state also showed their hands as an otherwise partisan stakeholder. There were too many defections in just a day. What with the pushback by the ruling party? That was equally instructive because it came with its peculiar message. All this can be the ultimate game-changer in next year’s elections, write Olawale Olaleye and Onyebuchi Ezigbo
One of the markers of the 2015 polls was the election crisis of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF), which was then led by a former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi. The then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) did not recover from the result of that election, which was later enmeshed in another political arithmetic crunch of 16 being considered greater than 19. But before the election and its resultant effect, there were a few peace overtures tailored towards managing the crisis, because it was clear that head or tail, an election at the time was certainly inauspicious. It was also because both the loser and the winner might have to part ways at the risk of an election because, for the first time, the presidency took a strange interest in who headed the NGF. It was just what happened.
However, in the thick of the crisis, a certain attempt was made, which could have rested the calamity that eventually characterised the outcome of the election. A former chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, Chief Tony Anenih had met with Amaechi and bounced off him, the need to have a meeting point for peace sake and also to save the party. Amaechi was not averse to the idea, but not without certain conditions.
He was said to have suggested to ‘leader’ as Anenih was called to tell then president, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan to suspend all efforts at removing him and let him return peacefully. How- ever, after a year as NGF chair, which by calculation meant his second term, he would resign on his honour and then, Jonathan could put whoever he wanted there.
The leader didn’t think it was a bad idea for as long as it would help calm the already tense atmosphere. Truly, when he allegedly got to the president and ran the outcome of the meeting by him, the president too didn’t think it was a bad suggestion and agreed with the leader on its implementation.
As leader was about to leave, a certain South-south governor came in and as one of the cliques running the show, the idea was also run by him. But he saw no sense in it and asked the president to throw it out. “Let us go to the poll, we’ll defeat him,” he allegedly confidently told Jonathan. And the innately shifty Jonathan too changed his mind on the spot and opted for an election, thinking they had it all covered.
Unfortunately, they all ended up with a bloody nose, with a result that proved 16 was greater than 19 as the counterforce of a former Plateau State governor, Jonah Jang crept in. that singular event marked the first time the presidency suffered avoidable but debilitating defeat in the run-up to the 2015 elections on account of poorly conceived counsel from trusted allies.
More importantly, what that development revealed was that such was the kind of guidance that people, who were close to Jonathan at the time, gave till he was ushered out of office on May 29,
2015, without clearly sculpted winning strategy.
But more instructively, what that presupposed was that much more than the effect of poor leadership typified by utter ineptitude, the Nigerian problem had always been that of followership, which lacks the capacity to speak truth to power and be the compass for leadership especially that leadership, more often than not, rose from amongst the followership and therefore might not be better than they are too. This much, some of the events of last week, confirmed.
It does not require a soothsayer to tell that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is currently not just walking a tightrope, but palpable contradiction, genuinely failing to learn from the circumstances that brought it to power. As it is, its current disposition to these developments does not seem to be a function of naivety but its inability to truly comprehend some of the prevailing dimensions.
While ordinarily the situation is not beyond solution, but as it was in the days of Jonathan, some persons close to power appear to have assumed the place of spoilers and rather than assist to decimate the velocity of the increasing disaffection within the political class, they have adopted PDP’s failed approach, which discountenances the weight of the opposition, yet, without a thorough analysis of their own strengths and weaknesses.
With such attitudinal disposition, the road to 2019 is not a pleasant one for the APC neither is it going to be a smooth run for the opposition. In other words, whilst this turn of events does not really guarantee an automatic win for the opposi- tion, what is currently unsettling the turf would have been amenable to remedy but for the arrogance of leadership, which has made it very difficult than it ordinarily is, thereby stoking an unsavoury state of play. But then, what are these issues? governors, Dr. Samuel Ortom of Benue State, left its rank to rejoin his former party, PDP.
The Benue situation is likely to be replicated in Imo State, where the Deputy Governor, Mr. Eze Madumere, and some other key members, including Senator Ifeanyi Ararume, a former National Organising Secretary, Senator Osita Izunaso, and Senator Ben Uwajumogu, are said to be under pressure to join the ship.
Following the defection many of its members in the National Assembly, the ruling party appeared jittery having
lost substantially its strength if not the majority status in both legislative chambers. At first, the response of the national chairman of APC, Adams Oshiomhole was contemptuous. But his volte-face was at variance with that of President Buhari.
The President, in his reaction, expressed a total commitment to the values of democracy, freedom of choice, as well as his willingness to work with all members of the National Assembly, irrespective of their political parties. His point was that no one of the defecting federal lawmakers had any specific grievances against him or the government he leads and that he did not harbour anything against any of them. But he boasted that their movement would not affect APC’s electoral fortune.
“As the saying goes, all politics is local. We understand that some of the distinguished and honourable lawmakers have issues with their home states, especially on zoning, which bars some of them from seeking another term in their constituency”.
On its part, the PDP emerged as the major gainer in the unfolding political realignment. With the likelihood of its taking over as majority party if the current political trend is sustained, PDP can now hope to approach the 2019 election with a measure of confidence.
Also, as part of its strategic moves to drive a new political coalition that would enable the opposition parties to unseat the APC, the PDP is considering the possibility of a name change. The proposal to set up a mechanism to achieve this was approved at the National Executive Committee meeting of the PDP last week. Although the party had earlier rejected such suggestions, the current wave of a coalition of opposition forces appears to be altering all the previous calculations.
Proponents of a name change for the PDP are hinging their argument on the alleged negative image of corruption that it had attracted since losing power at the centre. For those harbouring this view, getting a new name for PDP would help drop any image baggage it may have attracted in the past.
But those opposed to the idea were very vehement that the party does not require to get rid of its name to win back the trust and support of Nigerians. They point at the case of the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa that is gradually outliving all its founding fathers.
According to their argument, the ANC continues to enjoy the