Power Sector: Who is Deceiving Who?

In his article, ‘ The Dangers of Deception’, Steven Harper, a Canadian economist, entrepreneur, and retired politician said: “Deception is just another form of lying, but with a stronger degree of wrong, because the deceiver purposefully misleads others into believing that a lie is really what is true”

Penultimate week, the media was awash with reports that power generation “has hit 7000MW and distribution risen to all time national high of 5,222MW.”

Minister of Power, Works, and Housing, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, released the figures in Calabar, Cross River State, at the ministry’s retreat for top directors, heads of units and chief executives of agencies and parastatals.

Reeling out what he deemed as achievements of the power sector under President Muhammadu Buhari’s watch, Fashola claimed that the ministry had moved the power sector forward from where it was three years ago.

In his words: “Three years ago, the story was that power generation was the main problem of Nigeria. The story was that the distribution companies were complaining that they did not have enough energy to distribute to Nigerians.

“We were distributing averagely 2,690MW of electricity to Nigerians, but today, that story has changed; distribution has risen to 5,222 megawatts, an all time national high.

“Transmission has reached 7,000 while generation has reached 7,000. The problem has not finished but all we can say is that we have made progress.”

Even with generation stagnating at below 4,000MW despite the rains, the minister had insisted that the President Muhammadu Buhari administration has been making steady progress in electricity generation and distribution.

This acclaimed ‘ all time national highs’ in generation, distribution and transmission came less than three weeks after the minister and owners of the electricity distribution companies (Discos) exchanged hot words over the power sector’s abysmal performance.

As at January this year, the Transmission Company of Nigeria ( TCN) put the average power generation at approximately 3,600MW even after the repair of the damaged Escravos-Lagos Pipeline System (ELPS), which supplies gas to some of the power stations.

Prior to the fire incident that damaged the ELPS, average generation, according to the TCN was 4,300MW, while peak generation was put at 4,685.3MW and 3,667.5MW as the lowest electricity generated.

Only last month, the TCN also revealed that power generation dropped to 2,290MW, from 4,500MW, sequel to gas pipeline vandalism. A whopping N12.171 billion was reportedly lost on account of the drop in generation, which had been attributed to inadequate gas supply, poor distribution facilities, transmission network limitations and water management constraints.

Recall also that at a meeting in January this year, precisely, the 23rd monthly power sector operators’ meeting in Nasarawa State, the power minister had announced that power generation rose to 7000MW in 2017 from 3,000MW in May 2015, when he took over the affairs of the sector; while transmission capacity rose to 6,900mw in 2017 from about 5,000mw in May 2015.

Fashola had also put peak distribution at 5,000MW in 2017 from 2,690MW in 2015.

In what he titled: “The Progress and Milestones, our Journey for Incremental Power’, Fashola asserted: “We have increased the supply of power in the dry weather and people’s experience with power was better.”

However, a closer look at the figures the minister released in Calabar a fortnight ago, showed that they were almost the same as what he released at the January meeting in Nasarawa state, raising questions as to their authenticity.

Whereas the minister claimed that generation had reached 7000MW, distribution and transmission, 5,222MW and 7,000MW respectively, checks by THISDAY revealed otherwise.

A detailed report obtained from the office of the vice president, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo showed that despite the rains that should normally fill the hydro dams for optimum performance, power generation has remained below 4,000MW.

According to the sector’s operational data released by Osinbajo’s Advisory Power Team, the average amount of power supplied to the grid on August 4, was 3,682MW with about 3,975MW constrained. The sector, the report noted, was unable to collect about N1.908billion revenue on account of the constraints, which include line and inadequate gas supply.

Similarly, 3,612MW was supplied on August 3 while 3,793MW was constrained and the amount of revenue not collected was 1.820 billion. It was also revealed that 3,809MW was supplied on August 2; 4,380MW constrained and N2.102 billion lost as unearned revenue.

On August 1, 3,921MW was supplied while 3,370MW was constrained and the amount of revenue deferred on account of the power sector’s inefficiencies was put at 1.618 billion; 3,896MW was supplied on July 31, and 3,571MW constrained while revenue not collected was N1,714 billion.

The breakdown as contained in the operational report showed that between July 29 and August 4, the volume of electricity constrained by line challenges were 2,030.2MW; 2,551.7MW; 2,, 154.6MW; 1557.1MW; 2551.7MW; 1,964.5MW; and 2,126.5MW respectively.

Constraints from gas supply for the period were reported to be 1,520MW; 1,559MW; 1,419MW; 1,813MW; 1,828MW; 1,828MW; and 1,848.2MW respectively.

The poor performance of the hydro power stations at this time is a clear indication that the plants and indeed the sector as a whole remained ham- pered by sundry problems.

On assumption of office, Fashola had announced that the government was resetting the operations of the country’s power sector and was considering adopting “incremental, stable and interrupted power” as the new policy the ministry will adopt to generate 10,000MW by 2019. There is nothing on ground to show that this ambitious target would be actualised as generation still hovers around 4000MW.

He also disclosed that his team was putting up a development plan consisting of power generation, which would focus on maximising all available power-generating components by repairing them. The second phase, according to him, would be steady supply of power, while the third phase would be achieving uninterrupted power supply. Three years down the line, no meaningful achievement that I know of, has been achieved by the sector under Fashola’s watch.

The minister had declared that the problem of Nigeria’s power sector was man- made and pledged his determination to deliver on uninterrupted power supply.

In the words of the power minister: “The power challenges are not impossible to fix, most of them are man-made. I am determined to ensure we get to the point where Nigeria has uninterrupted power supply.” Is Nigeria enjoying steady supply now? The answer is NO. This is in spite of the mind- boggling amounts released to the power sector by successive administrations and its eventual privatisation in 2013.

It is therefore baffling to Nigerians that the minister could downplay the underperformance of the sector in an apparent bid to deceive people and make them believe that the Buhari administration had fixed the electricity sector problems.

Given the voracious appetite for energy to run Nigeria’s burgeoning factories, many of which are at the point of closing down, the need to urgently resolve the lingering issues in the sector has become imperative.