Many Shades of Osun Election Osun Election and Its Peculiarity
Next weekend, Osun State would take a major decision when her people would file out to elect the next governor of the state. More than the tension and the anxiety that gripped the July 14 governorship election in Ekiti State, the whole of the nation appears to be on tenterhooks as Osun either maintains the status quo or moves on to a different ideological leaning. From Lagos to Abuja and other parts of the country, everyone has an interest in the choice of governor Osun seeks to throw up. This is also largely because whatever it is, being the closest crucial election to next year’s general election, the exercise would be used nearly accurately to gauge the subsisting mood and be able to extrapolate into 2019. In all, 48 out of the 91 political parties are fielding candidates for this election. Yet, in the 48, only five parties are somewhat reckoned with, without necessarily dismissing the possibility that any of the 42 others or some combined could spring up surprises. This is why in projecting the likely outcome of the exercise, it is important to note that there are many shades that would give life as much as some dynamic meanings to the election, write Shola Oyeyipo and Yinka Kolawole
No one in the political camp of former Lagos State governor and National Leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, would feign ignorance that the Osun State governorship election coming up on September 22, would be another test case of his political sagacity and relevance in the South-west geo-political mathematics.
Since venturing into the Nigerian political space, at no time had the authority of the APC leader been so challenged as when his former party, the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) went into the merger that gave birth to the ruling APC.
Apparently wary of the reality that Tinubu wields a lot of power with his relevance in South-west politics, not only were there deliberate efforts to curtail him in the region, he has been prevented from expanding his coasts as he had done before. At the same time, some forces within the party have been making frantic efforts to burrow into his base and as it is, they appear to have been gradually depleting his base.
The cases of Kogi and Ondo States and partly Ekiti are clear indications of that and they are the best references of a well-orchestrated gang-up to ‘cut Tinubu to size.’
In Kogi State, for instance, Tinubu’s protégé, House of Representatives member from the Ikeja federal constituency, Lagos State, Hon. James Faleke, who was the running mate to the late Alhaji Abubakar Audu in the governorship election, was denied the opportunity or right of benefitting from the victory of his principal, who died at the tail end of the election when they were clearly on the cusp of victory.
Though the incumbent Governor, Alhaji Yahaya Bello came second in the APC governorship primaries, he eventually emerged the APC candidate and became governor after a Supreme Court judgment validated his candidature, Faleki, however, alleged that some highly placed government officials had “exerted pressure on judges.”
The force working against Tinubu is the cabal in the presidency, believed to have been aided by some of Tinubu’s former protégés. Thus, the Buhari boys or Abuja boys as some call them challenged and defeated Tinubu again in Ondo State after allies of the president allegedly came together to outdo Segun Abraham, who was Tinubu’s alleged choice.
It was from that point that Tinubu’s disapproval for the immediate past National Chairman of the APC, Chief John Oyegun escalated. In fact, that was when he started a strong
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campaign that Oyegun must resign, before his eventual ouster during the last national convention, which produced a former Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole as the APC national chairman.
The Road to the Primaries
After all these, the Osun State governorship election presents these two contending forces (Abuja and Lagos camps of the APC) with another battleground and with the rate events are unfolding, it is already showing that there would be more intrigues in the days ahead.
Already, the ruling APC in Osun State has suffered a mass exodus of its members to the Action Democratic Party (ADP). Surprisingly, the defectors included the state deputy chairman and eight members of the State Executive Committee (SEC) of the APC.
Apart from the purported over 6,000 members, comprising 580 local government executive members from 25 council areas of the state and 5, 620 ward executives that Alhaji Moshood Adeoti boasted defected with him, the Special Adviser to outgoing Governor Rauf Aregbesola on Cooperatives, Mr. Gbenga Awosode, also resigned his position and membership of the APC. His agenda is to pursue his political aspiration in the ADP.
Thus, the gale of defections is nothing but a reflection of the covert power-play among the forces fighting for the control of state within the APC. But with Tinubu and Aregbesola having full control of the APC structure in Osun, it was easy for the Chief of Staff to Aregbesola, Mr. Gboyega Oyetola to emerge the APC candidate.
Oyetola is Tinubu’s cousin. He polled 127,017 in APC’s first-ever direct primary. Deputy Speaker, House of representatives, Yusuff Lasun recorded 21,975 votes to come a distant second and the Speaker, Osun State House of Assembly, Hon. Najeem Salam came third with 17, 958 votes.
But believed to be enjoying the support of the ‘Abuja Boys,’ even before the primary, former Secretary to the Osun State Government (SSG), Adeoti, had accused the party of manipulating the process. He alleged that the process had been skewed to favour Oyetola and that the so-called direct primary was a mere endorsement charade for him.
Certain that he has what it takes to defeat Oyetola, Adeoti defected to the Action Democratic Party (ADP), which he prescribed as “home to all progressives.” His joining the ADP opened the floodgate of defections from APC.
Interestingly, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) did not necessarily do better. The party has been engrossed in deep-seated crisis over the choice of its gubernatorial candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke.
Though the lawmaker purportedly won the party primary election with just seven votes, the rift that has trailed the election has unsettled the party and might have grossly limited the chances of the party at the election. Like Adeoti of the APC, Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi too maintained that the electoral processes were manipulated to favour Adeleke.
For some time, the crisis did not abate. In fact, a committee headed by former Senate President, Senator David Mark, which among other things advised Adeleke to cede the deputy governorship seat and the Osun West senatorial ticket to Ogunbiyi yielded no fruitful result. Adeleke did not agree to the terms until the current President of the Senate, Dr. Bukola Saraki intervened and resolved the crisis. Presently, the PDP is fine.
In the Social Democratic Party ((SDP), its candidate, a former deputy governor, Iyiola Omisore, emerged amidst crisis. although Omisore is making waves as an alternative candidate to candidates on the platforms of the two major parties, fact is that during a primary election conducted by the party at its secretariat in Osogbo on Wednesday, July 18, 2018, Munirudeen Atanda emerged winner, but Omisore despite being on the ballot, Omisore boycotted the process.
But when another election was conducted, he won. The confusion, however, is that as in case of the election at the party’s secretariat, the election that resulted in Omisore’s victory was witnessed by officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
However, while the returning officer and chairman of the party’s electoral panel from Abuja, Prof. Rufai Alkali, announced Omisore as the winner, the Osun State SDP chairman, Ademola Ishola, declared Munirudeen Atanda as the winner on Wednesday, saying the claims of factions in the party should be disregarded.
In all, Omisore, the senator who represented Osun East senatorial district between 2003 and 2009 suffers a no-love-lost relationship with the Osun State chapter of the SDP since his entrance into the party in April 2018. His sins are in two folds. First, he is seen as working to hijack the party structure and second, he is considered as relating more cordially with the SDP headquarters in Abuja.
Relative to most of the other major political parties, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) primaries held for its gubernatorial aspirants were not acrimonious. In the end, it threw up Mr Olugbenga Akintola as the party’s standard-bearer.
There were only two aspirants: Olufemi Kehinde and Akintola and both men had agreed to accept the outcome of the elections. INEC officials monitored the peacefully conducted exercise and the party has worked silently, hoping to pull a surprise by leveraging the wrangling in the other parties to win the election.