The Road to 2019 Flashpoints to Watch (XXII)
With just a week to the presidential and national assembly elections, the equations are no longer fluid, writes Olawale Olaleye
For the most of last week, the moist had begun to significantly clear off the hazy coast for the general election as the countdown to February 16 inches closer. The two leading parties and their candidates, APC’s Muhammadu Buhari and PDP’s Atiku Abubakar also closed the week with message rallies almost all-week. But before rounding off the week with their message rallies, the week had also witnessed both candidates visit crucial swings states, where they keenly competed with crowd and also showed strengths in terms of popularity. In fact, the turnout at each of the rallies had also confirmed speculations that truly, the presidential election is going to be tight and tough.
Amid all these, however, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) also extended the dates for the collection of PVCs to tomorrow and at the same time, vowed never to postpone the elections. In other words, INEC is more than ready to do Nigeria and the world proud by delivering credible elections at all levels.
Whilst both candidates continued to enjoy staggering endorsements from different quarters, including the one from the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which had caused serious disaffection within the party as a result of the indiscretion of a few to abandon their own candidate, Donald Duke, the United States, on the other hand had dismissed insinuations that it had preference for any of the candidates.
Related to this is the allegation by the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) that the ruling party had planned to frame up Atiku and other leaders of the party as part of their strategy to emasculate the opposition.
It is also interesting to note that the First Lady, Aisha Buhari has since been back from her medical treatment abroad but it appears she had been prevented from being a part of the campaign as she has maintained a genuinely low profile.
The news of the burning of the INEC office in Abia was another obnoxious development that set the rival parties in the state against each other. No fewer than 15000 PVCs were reportedly lost to the fire, which many reckoned was not unconnected to sabotage.
Above all, the week was largely marked by some interesting polls, mostly by renowned international pollster, which clearly stated that the election was Atiku’s to lose.
Although THISDAY had set the ball rolling with its state-by-state analyses, which suggested an Atiku advantage, the follow-ups by Williams and Associates as well as Teneo, two international pollsters was an icing on the cake for the opposition, a development that has naturally changed the tenor of campaigns ahead of the polls this weekend.
It was also not unexpected that some of the extrapolations at the state level focused more on their participation in the presidential and national assembly elections, since as the first round of elections they would largely define the way for others.
That notwithstanding, some of the crucial states are still battling with many internal but peculiar contradictions.
RIVERS Is it Over Yet?
Last Friday’s Supreme Court ruling, which upheld a High Court judgment and by extension, affirmed that the APC would not field any candidate for the election is fast changing the direction of things in the state. This is because the interpretation adduced to the judgment is that the end might have come to the APC in the state as far as the matter between Ibrahim Umar & 22 Ors vs Rivers APC is concerned.
But the party leadership has dismissed the interpretation as inconsistent with the actual meaning of the judgment, saying the apex court ruled that in line with provisions of the Constitution of the APC, the chapter legal adviser at the time the matter commenced, Mr. Chieme Chinweikpe, rightly represented the party directly or through legal appointees of his instead of Mr. Lateef Fagbemi, SAN who was seconded by the legal department of the national headquarters of APC.
This, the party said meant that the judgment given by Justice Chiwendu Nworgu was a consent judgment following thereto. But while accepting the decision, having come from the highest court of the land, APC stated that the decision on legal representation was the only matter the Supreme Court made pronouncement on last Friday and that it was expecting the apex court to rule on the all-important issue of jurisdiction of whether Justice Nworgu was right to delve into what it believed was an internal affairs of the APC with regards to primaries.
To that extent, the APC said the chances of his candidates were not imperiled as a result of that ruling. Therefore, tomorrow, all eyes would on the apex court to rule on jurisdiction, which would finally lay the matter to rest.
LAGOS The Storm Subsides
With the intervention of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu in the disagreement between Governor Akinwunmi Ambode and members of the state House of Assembly, it is the view of an average observer and stakeholders alike that the muscle-flexing in the state has been laid to rest, finally. Although what had started like a child’s play was almost going to consume the governor with the idea of an impeachment that had been set rolling.
While the party struggled to shrug that off especially when it was obvious even to the undiscerning that the timing was poorly conceived, the presidential rally held by the APC in the state yesterday came with mixed bag of opinions.
While some thought it was a bit successful, others felt it was below par given the attention that Lagos currently enjoys in the scheme of things. And coming at a time that political analysts have identified Lagos as a crucial battleground state, the outcome of yesterday’s rally might as well suggest Atiku’s soaring popularity in the state.
In spite of that, the governorship candidate of the PDP in the state set a new standard for his electioneering when he said half of his budget as governor would go into education. Now, that is a development and issue-based debate that many would like to see come up between contestants. But then, nothing is cast in stone more so when Atiku has yet to hold his Lagos rally.
OGUN Waiting for Mr. President
Apart from reports of violence, which appear to be colouring many of the campaigns in the state, everything still appears to be working in favour of Governor Ibikunle Amosun and his candidate in APM, Adekunle Akinlade.
Apart from the possibility that Ladi Adebutu, an aggrieved governorship hopeful on the platform of the PDP, might work with Amosun and his candidates, the fact that the national leadership of the PDP has distanced itself from the INEC recognised candidate, Senator Buruji Kashamu, also plays in favour of Amosun, who stands prominent to annex the openings.
More than anything else, tomorrow’s APC rally in Ogun State is a test case for the contending interests within and outside the party particularly, how they are able to hold their own without the resort to violence or needless and avoidable bickering. But certainly, the rally would signal what direction events would assume next weekend.
BENUE Still Gasping for Breath
The battle in Benue State is monodimensional. The APC is determined to take over the state on the grounds of poor performance, while the PDP is clinging to power on the grounds that the continuous killing in the state is as a result of poor leadership offered by the APC federal government. For this reason, the APC and the PDP have consistently been at loggerheads, bickering over issues that are sometimes extraneous to the development of the state.
It was no surprise therefore that Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State, last week, described as shameful, the statements made by Senator George Akume, Governor Simon Lalong and other All Progressives Congress (APC) leaders at the recent party’s presidential rally in Makurdi, the state capital, that the state government was raising an army of its by arming livestock guards.
He went on to accuse Akume of arming