THE SPIRITUAL SOLUTION TO BOKO HARAM

When the head of the country’s military tells them that a particular war is beyond the capacity of his men and that spiritual warfare will be required, what comes to their mind is the kind of warfare that their ancestors fought, or the type that Christian and Islamic evangelicals introduced, resulting in a syncretic religious order in colonial and post-colonial Africa.

Buratai, Nigeria’s Chief of Army Staff is obviously frustrated, tired and exasperated. He used the words: spiritual and ideology. Boko Haram is a spiritual and ideological force. Its soldiers seek to create an Islamic State and impose a Sharia orthodoxy on Nigeria. Boko Haram is not just a religious war; it is a spiritual violation of Nigeria. Boko Haram adherents do not believe in Western civilization. They regard it as sin. That is an ideological war. To mobilise recruits and sustain the battle, Boko Haram leaders indoctrinate young people. They attack their minds. They get them to buy into an ideology of hate and violence. Every revolution starts in the mind of men. Buratai is certainly right when he says the war against terror cannot be won by the military alone, or that it should be a collaborative effort. Is there a role for religious groups in the matter? The Nigerian military is more or less giving up, so, I think, yes. The religious mind in Nigeria is stronger than the political mind, even if there is a gap between private and public attitudes. Nigerians troop to churches, mosques and shrines, some do so every day, claiming to know the mind of God, but when it comes to public attitudes, they act differently.

Buratai in calling for a religious solution may have heard a little about the concept of the psychology of terrorism. Terrorists are first and foremost human beings and there is a science to their behaviour as is the case with every other human being. Is there a way in which religion can moderate that behaviour? Can our priests and alfas use the pulpit to change the behaviour of persons and communities? Can ritualists and shamanists call on the elements to turn Sambisa forest into a place of value rather than a forest of evil? Can the clerics use holy water, fasting, days of prayer to

BUILDING AND SUSTAINING A STRONG ECONOMIC FUTURE FOR NIGERIA

As GDP growth rates fizzled out in 2015 and 2016, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) compounded the situation by embarking on forex policies which caused investors to both take fright and take flight at the same time. The inevitable outcome was an economic recession. It was only after CBN succumbed to pressure in early 2017 to allow a Nafex exchange rate, where all business units and individuals could buy and sell forex freely at a market determined exchange rate of N360/$1 approx., that supply bottlenecks slowly disappeared and the economy limped out of a recession. The Nigerian economy is however still largely stagnant and so anaemic GDP growth rates which fall below the approximate 3% population growth rate are not cause for celebration. With high inflation rates in the 11% range, which CBN appears to have accepted as being the norm, investors now fear stagflation. Compare and contrast this with Ivory Coast and Senegal which held inflation below 2% and grew GDP in excess of 7% in 2018.

Before going into prescriptions it is important to update this audience about the current structure of the Nigerian economy, which is significantly different from what prevailed in 1993 in five important areas:

1) Over 50% of our GDP now comes from the Service Sector. CBN appeared to have forgotten this in 2016 when directing banks to allocate 60% of forex to the manufacturing sector that accounted for less than 10% of GDP. CBN also held out the false hope that denial of forex to specific sectors of the economy would somehow incentivise investors in other sectors. The reality is that draconian actions directed at one group of investors simply make other investors think “so who is next and/or what is next”? A corollary of this proposition is to point out that actions and pronouncements that increase overall Uncertainty and Risk are likely to be counter-productive, if the goal is to boost investment activity generally;

2) Inward diaspora remittances now eclipse the oil and gas sector as the number one source of forex for Nigeria. Again, CBN overlooked this while trying to force these inflows to come in at a stipulated official rate of N200/$1 at a time when the parallel market had galloped beyond N400/$1 in 2016;

3) Our ICT sector’s GDP contribution has since outgrown the oil and gas sector share of GDP and so it should be heralded and nurtured instead of being attacked by rogue regulators as has become fashionable;

4) The split of aggregate demand between the Private Sector and the Government Sector (all 3 tiers) is now 91.5%/8.5%. Some Nigerians still dream about FG stimulating national aggregate demand through its own expenditure activity alone. Meanwhile, FG’s total 2020 budget expenditures will translate into a paltry sum of $130 or less per Nigerian. How can that possibly transform Nigeria’s economy in a meaningful way?

One of the first areas of consensus in that first economic summit in 1993 was that FG expenditures alone could never transform turn the eyes of the Evil One away from Nigeria and bring peace and happiness? In seeking such meta-solutions, the religious-minded is apparently proclaiming the failure of the state, but with state officials themselves saying the war against terror requires a metaphysical approach, this may well be a subject for further interrogation. A failed state yes, but may be not yet.

What is required is a translation of the proposal into a strategy, with proper co-ordination and management. What kind of spiritual warfare is the Nigerian military asking for? How can we deploy all the spiritual resources, agents and organizations in the country to achieve results and defeat Boko Haram? In the absence of proper strategy and co-ordination, we could have all kinds of persons doing their own thing in their own corner. Already, perhaps in response to the call by the Chief of Army Staff, a spiritual warfare against Boko Haram has begun in Borno State, where the Governor, Babagana Zulum, a Professor of Engineering, has chosen to recruit 1,000 traditional hunters to face the Boko Haram terrorists. These hunters we are told, have supernatural powers. They can resist gun shots. They can appear and disappear at will. They can kill thousands in a minute. The hunters have been reportedly provided with dane guns, and swords, and they have sworn to an oath to defeat Boko Haram. In addition, Governor Zulum has engaged 30 prayer warriors for daily supplication around the Ka’aba to pray for peace in Borno State. He has thus recruited a group to report Boko Haram directly to God, in Mecca, the holy land.

The Nigerian military cannot afford to have every state Governor running with their own script of spiritual warfare. To save Nigeria from Boko Haram, we must all work and pray together. This is why I recommend strategy and synergy. The Chief of Army Staff should appoint a Boko Haram Counter-Spiritual Warfare Co-Ordinator or Adviser. The person should be a very senior statesman, preferably an old, retired soldier, who once upon a time in his life understood the value and application of the “Juju option” to military warfare/ Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed

the Nigerian economy and so by far the most impactful activity that FG could engage in was to create an enabling environment and a level playing field that would stimulate phenomenal private sector investment activity. 25 years later some of our policy makers still sound as if they missed this most basic lesson.

5) In 2018, Nigeria’ Foreign Direct Investment inflows slipped behind Ghana’s for the first time. In terms of FDI flows into Africa, Nigeria slipped into the second tier in 2018. The first tier is now comprised of Egypt, South Africa, Congo, Morocco, Ethiopia, Ghana and Mozambique. Indeed, Mozambique may head this chart in a few years time. They have provided the type of clarity which Nigeria has refused to provide to the Oil and Gas sector from the moment the Oil Minister in the previous administration produced a first draft of a myopic Petroleum Industry Bill. The Way Forward

It is not too late for President Buhari’s Government and our national assembly to borrow a cue from Mozambique and learn how to enact laws that provide clarity and reduce uncertainty for investors in the oil and gas sector and other sectors too.

So, why is Nigeria unable to achieve GDP growth rates of 6% and above which are currently the norm in several Sub-Saharan Africa economies? The obvious answer is that we appear to have frightened most investors away (local and foreign) and they will not be coming back any time soon until we correct the structural dysfunction that frightened them away in the first place.

Investors appear to have concluded that the Nigerian economy is rigged against all except the very well-connected and they are right. By definition, the well-connected investors are few and so our Investment/GDP ratio is likely to remain low until we make it possible for all international diplomacy and who at the same time is very knowledgeable in Christian theology, and has a good relationship with Muslims and Nigerians across ethnic, religious and geographical boundaries. He must have enough influence and gravitas to be able to reach out to the spiritual leaders of Nigeria, across various persuasions. He must be an elderly man whose only interest is the survival of Nigeria as a sovereign entity. He will not be paid for the assignment. He should have a military background. His team should be treated like a battalion of the Nigerian Army to be known as the Spiritual Counter-Insurgency Rapid Response Division.

No member of this proposed team will receive any form of compensation. But whatever they may need for their purpose should be provided directly by the Presidency. The team should be organized as follows: all Muslim clerics should work together as one division. They should all storm Sambisa forest and hold prayers there non-stop for 40 days and 40 nights to exorcise the spirit of evil from the forest. Leaders of white garment churches should lead another division. They should be deployed to every part of the country to cleanse Nigeria with prayers, anointed oil, lit candles, and holy water. They should fast and pray and call on the Lord of Hosts, the I am that I am, Jehovah Jireh. Sat Guru Maharaji, the Living Master, should lead all children of Light in prayer. Nigeria needs the touch of all Masters, Living and Ethereal, to envelope Nigeria with Light and banish darkness. Leaders of the Pentecostal Churches led by GO Enoch Adeboye can organize a 100-day Marathon prayer and fasting session to take this country’s case to God, to plead for Divine Favour and forgiveness.

Animists should not be left out. Every ethnic nationality should be asked to visit every shrine or grove in every community in Nigeria and place curses on anybody who commits any evil on the soil that is known as Nigeria. In calling for national spiritual warfare, Buratai may have heard of what happened in the city of Benin not too long ago. When criminals began to seize other investors (Nigerian and foreign) to come back and partake in the task of baking a bigger cake on the basis of a level playing field.

In Nigeria of 2019, only the well-connected can expect the following: 1) Security of life and property; 2) Prompt dispensation of Justice; 3) Sanctity of contracts; 4) No harassment from multiple rogue regulators; 5) Access to land via the Land Use Act; 6) Freedom from multiple illegal State and Local Government levies; 7) Provision of good roads and pipe-borne water to their door-step; 8) Access to subsidised financing; and 9) Public sector employment opportunities.

For the youths, the less privileged and others who are not well connected, they dare not expect these nine things. Instead, they should concentrate on avoiding being the victims of extra-judicial killings and other forms of Police (notably SARS) or Army brutality and if they go into a legitimate business activity, they should get ready to grapple with endless threats and harassment by FIRS, Customs, State Government Tax authorities, SARS, NAFDAC etc. The bulk of this harassment typically comes from corrupt government officials seeking to line their own pockets through extortion.

Sadly, there appears to be no oversight function and so the excesses of these rogue regulators is largely unchecked, thereby leaving no respite nor protection for their poor victims. There is no justice for the underprivileged in Nigeria and so this exacerbates income inequality which is already very high, as demonstrated by our Gini Coefficient of 0.4 approx.

A new generation of Nigerians (largely youths) have been dealt a terrible hand. A Nigerian Passport gives them few options for taking flight. It is not so with investors. Many can take flight and have done so. Sadly, most utterances by important public figures give the remaining investors even more cause to worry. We need a paradigm shift away from harassing investors to one of welcoming them sincerely as well as taking actions that boost business confidence, as Morocco and Rwanda do all the time. A global race is on to win the hearts and minds of investors. Nigeria is currently losing that race badly even within Africa.

Reversing this terrible trend is a shared responsibility. A society gets the leaders that it deserves and so I do not blame this Government or past Governments. I blame the elite in general because we shy away from backing truly competent political leaders, as if we fear that we will not succeed in manipulating them or getting them to rig economic outcomes in our favour.

In the meantime, FG has lost fiscal viability because it lacks the courage to trim personnel overheads on account of a bloated headcount in the public sector. Will 98% of the population continue to suffer so that less than 2% who make up the bloated public sector can maintain their lifestyles? The same FG endorsed a largely unaffordable minimum wage and presses on with “populist” subsidies which are largely cornered by the rich. Government revenues as a percentage of GDP are exceedingly low at 6% control of that city, the Oba of Benin called out his priests and in broad daylight, all the priests wearing blazing and frightening red colour cursed the criminals and warned them to stop or face the wrath of the gods of Benin. There has been peace and security in Benin since then. The same criminals who do not respect Nigerian Police and Army or the Nigerian Constitution have been very careful with the gods and ancestors! There must be something that the Benin palace knows that the Nigerian military probably needs. How about asking the Oba of Benin to co-ordinate an anti-Boko Haram operation?

There is also the recent case of Oke Owa community in Ondo State. Some Fulani cattle herders took their cows to a sacred hill in that community in defiance of the community’s traditions and rules. The cows, 36 of them were struck dead mysteriously by lightning and thunder. The traditional ruler of the Oke Owa community usually spends a night alone in the sacred grove where that incident occurred. He should be taken by the Federal Government to Sambisa forest. Let him spend a night there and summon whatever spirits are protecting his village on a sabbatical in the North West and North East of Nigeria. The Governor of Borno State has mobilized some hunters who we are told have bullet-proof bodies. The Are Ona Kakanfo of Yorubaland, Iba Ganiyu Adams should also be recruited to lead the Yoruba Agbekoya to support the Nigerian military in the war against terror. The Egbesu of the Niger Delta should also come to the rescue of the Nigerian military.

I commend the Chief of Army Staff for his humility. It is not easy for a General to admit that what he and his men are facing at the war-front is rather daunting and that they need spiritual help. It is not easy to accept DEFEAT. Where are all those pastors who claim that they can make the lame walk and the blind see? Nigeria needs HELP right now! If we defeat the Boko Haram through spiritual warfare, Nigeria would have made a very original contribution to the science of modern warfare. approx and yet all that the private sector does is resist any attempts to increase indirect taxes or price products such as petrol and electricity on the basis of full cost recovery. Even the recent inevitable decision to introduce toll gates on our roads has been met by private sector resistance.

Following the launch of a new paymentsenabled National ID Card it is certainly possible to quantify the annual petrol subsidy, apportion it and pay each Nigerian adult that falls below a minimum income threshold his or her share. This can be executed transparently by the same office for National Social Investment Programmes that currently pays monthly handouts to a lucky few out of the 90 million extremely poor Nigerians. If FG is in the habit of being seen to grant subsidies then we should focus less on getting stubborn people to shed a bad habit. It is far better to get them to replace a bad habit of wasted subsidies with a much better habit of direct payments to the poor via an instrument that the rich cannot corner or access.

There will be no strong economic future for Nigeria that can be built and sustained if the deal is to starve the Government of revenues, whilst blaming the three tiers of Government for failing to deliver on their respective mandates. The responsibility that we must share is to encourage FG to get its finances in order and attain both fiscal viability and macroeconomic stability. We must also encourage FG to level the playing field for investors and quit dangling rent-seeking and/or arbitrage opportunities such as multiple exchange rates, which remain open to abuse.

In 1993, Summiteers and CBN agreed that CBN should pursue a 5% inflation target. At that time US inflation was 3% and so the gap was only 2% p.a. Today, US inflation is 2% and yet CBN appears to be content with keeping inflation high at 10 or 11% p.a., the 9% per annum differential is much too high and is inconsistent with the declared goal of maintaining exchange rate stability. Nobody should get carried away by our short term reliance on “hot” money inflows to bolster forex reserves on the basis of distorted “carry trades”. CBN should quit expanding its mandate into other questionable areas, if it cannot meet its most basic mandate of containing inflation.

We cannot afford to approach the next 25 years by repeating the errors of the last 25 years. The shared responsibility includes getting the elite to become less insular or less sycophantic and to learn to speak truth to power. The recently appointed Economic Policy Advisory team is a step in the right direction by FG. Their job will be made a lot easier if this Summit can help establish an elite consensus on the unfinished business that is still holding us back from building and sustaining a strong economic future for Nigeria.

I thank you for your attention.