The Three Faces of Third Term
TLamentation hese days, most people are only interested in lamenting about the state of the nation, and how they are suffering in this ‘next level’ (myself included). Since I returned from the UK and USA 36 years ago upon completing my studies, the ululation has never been this thunderous and deafening. Even during the dark days of the Abacha military regime, the wailing was more about the lack of respect for fundamental human rights, now guaranteed in Chapter 4 of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended)(the Constitution), that is, lack of freedom of speech and the like, more so than about the present unprecedented financial hardship and insecurity that Nigerians are experiencing, combined with Government’s quest to suppress any form of dissent, in this democratic setting.
‘Third Term’: Option 1 Beyond the weeping and gnashing of teeth, I have noticed that the cry about yet another third term agenda (a la the ‘Kampe’ administration), also seems to be reaching a crescendo. President Buhari (Baba) however, made an attempt to put that speculation to rest, when he stated categorically last week at an APC meeting, that he has no intention of seeking a third term. But, rightly or wrongly, some still remain sceptical, especially considering the fact that before he became President, Baba had said that he would only do one term, and not seek a second term. It is therefore, apposite for me to discuss the issue of third term.
I do agree that, some of the actions of the Government today are outrightly anti-democratic dictatorship material, and we all know that dictators have a sit-tight attitude, never planning on leaving office until they die. But, as I said on this page last month, Sections 135(2) and 137(1)(b) of the Constitution, provide for a four year term and a maximum of two four-year terms for the President of Nigeria, respectively, and Baba in his statement, said he would be guided by the Constitution. These provisions can only be amended by virtue of Section 9(2), which makes it extremely difficult for the Constitution to be amended; and, since the buy-in of all the Houses of Assembly in Nigeria is required for any such amendment, it is highly unlikely that the third term agenda can be pursued, via this means.
For those who believe that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) can be used to further the third term agenda, again, that position may not be tenable. While INEC can obviously manipulate results and declare all the elections inconclusive, in terms of elongating anyone’s term, it cannot. INEC can only postpone elections, and even this power to postpone elections is not unlimited, as Sections 132(2) and 178(2) of the Constitution confine' any such postponement to within a maximum of 150 and a minimum of 30 days time period, to the expiration of the term of office of the President and a Governor, respectively. This means that, any postponement of election by INEC, can only be done before, at worst, 31 days to the expiration of the tenure, and certainly not beyond that time frame.
Actualisation of the ‘Third Term’ Agenda: Option 2
However, all is not lost! For those who want to push this sinister agenda, it can still be achieved, constitutionally. Between the President and the National Assembly (NASS), Section 64(2) gives the President the power to decide whether it is practicable to hold elections, if the Federation is at war in which a territory in Nigeria is physically involved. Once this decision is passed on to NASS, NASS is empowered to pass a resolution to extend the four year tenure by a period not exceeding six months “at any one time”. The purport of this provision is that, as long as the President considers this war situation to persist, NASS can continue to renew the six months elongation, time after time - ‘ad infinitum’ (forevermore)! They just cannot extend it for more than six months, at one time. With what many Nigerians have referred to as a ‘rubber stamp’ NASS, this will be a ‘fait accompli’ for the third term agenda-ists, since NASS as it stands presently, is one that seems as if it will only ask the President how high, when asked to jump!
Option 3 Section 305(3) of the Constitution also gives the President the power of proclamation of a state of emergency. Again, Section 305(6)(c) allows NASS by means of a resolution, to extend the period of the state of emergency for a period of six months, while a Governor can also declare a state of emergency in his/her own State, with a sanction of a two-thirds majority of the House of Assembly
(Section 305(4) of the Constitution). A state of emergency is defined by
the Oxford Dictionary, as “a situation of national danger or disaster, in which Government suspends normal constitutional procedures in order to regain
control”. Even though Section 305 is silent on elections, it is apparent that, suspension of normal constitutional procedures, includes suspending elections. With this provision, I’m not sure that it is even necessary to read Section 64(2) of the Constitution into Section 305, in order to postpone elections, because it would be impossible to hold a national election, if, for example, the States in the North East cannot vote, as a result of declarations of states of emergency.
The whole world is aware that there is insurgency in the North East, with the incessant Boko Haram attacks. Some have even started to refer to it, as a war. In fact, we have all argued that, the Army has not ‘technically defeated’ anyone, and contrary to the Army’s claim, Boko Haram has not been vanquished or annihilated.
During the recent February 23 Presidential election, many accused APC and INEC of writing the results of Borno and Yobe States. In Maiduguri, there was a Boko Haram attack the morning of the election, and people wondered how the voter turnout there, could still be higher than that of Lagos, in the face of life threatening danger! Self-preservation is the first law of nature, and naturally, most right thinking people would rather have kept themselves safe, indoors, than endangering their lives by coming out to vote. However, APC and Government were desperate for a second term, and nothing would have halted that election.
Now that the second term is in the bag, the insurgency/war situation can once again be used to Government’s advantage, this time by simply declaring that certain areas are too volatile and insecure to hold elections, and thereby, postpone the elections in 2023. Shi ke nan! Nigerians have been so cowed into submission and poverty, that if Government decided to walk down this path, they will able to do so, unhindered. Hopefully, as the Pentecostal Christians like to say, “this is not our portion”.
Although, in Nigeria, one has learnt not to rule anything out, no matter how far-fetched and outlandish it may seem to be. As long as it is an outcome desired by those in power in presentday Nigeria, it is mostly, doable. The difference between this administration and that of the ‘Kampe’ administration is that, the latter tried to achieve this objective with a measure of subtlety, with speculation, testing the waters and sampling opinions, possibly trying to use economic inducements with the mind of utilising the amendment of Section 137(1)(b) option, which did not work out. Some members of this administration and the APC, on the other hand, will do anything to hang on to power, and additionally, they are anything but subtle. However, the good thing about the latter options, is that they need the input of Baba, and, they do not have it; at least, as far as we know, they do not have his acquiescence for now. Only time will tell.
“BEYOND THE WEEPING AND GNASHING OF TEETH, I HAVE NOTICED THAT THE CRY ABOUT YET ANOTHER THIRD TERM AGENDA (A LA THE ‘KAMPE’ ADMINISTRATION), ALSO SEEMS TO BE REACHING A CRESCENDO. PRESIDENT BUHARI (BABA) HOWEVER, MADE AN ATTEMPT TO PUT THAT SPECULATION TO REST, WHEN HE STATED CATEGORICALLY LAST WEEK AT AN APC MEETING, THAT HE HAS NO INTENTION OF SEEKING A THIRD TERM”