Buhari Finally Bows to People’s Wish
President Muhammadu Buhari on Tuesday, August 25, 2020 continued with the rejigging of his administration’s policy plank by repackaging his erstwhile three point development agenda of anti-corruption, fighting insurgency as well as economic development. He chose the occasion of the parley with diplomats for the presentation of their credentials to him to make the very important announcement which represents a policy sea change.
He put it this way: “In our efforts to achieve a realistic domestic and foreign policy, as well as national development, we have identified the following nine priority areas to guide our policy directions over the next few years.
“Build a thriving and sustainable economy; Enhance social inclusion and reduce poverty; Enlarge agricultural output for food security and export; Attain energy sufficiency in power and petroleum products and expand transport and other infrastructural development.
“Expand business growth, entrepreneurship and industrialisation; Expand access to quality education, affordable healthcare and productivity of Nigerians; Build a system to fight corruption, improve governance and create social cohesion; and improve security for all.’’
Remarkably, anti-corruption war which was the number one priority and fulcrum of the former policy is now in the rear as it is being replaced by fighting poverty which was not originally on the agenda as number one priority.
Coming on the heels of the reversal of the regimes unsustainable policies of fuel subsidy that has been gulping public funds estimated to be in excess of a trillion naira annually that should have been used to subsidize education which would be in support of production, instead of subsidising consumption which fuel subsidy is really about; the defence of the naira against the dollar or currency devaluation which has resulted in the hemorrhage of the foreign exchange reserve ,only a forth night ago, the relegation of the anti corruption policy of the administration to where it should have been from the get go, affirms my thoughts canvassed in the last public opinion piece that I published which is that Nigerian economy may well be under the full control of the new economic management team led by Doyin Salami, with Chukwuma Soludo and Bismarck Rewane and others as key drivers .
With the economy out of the orbit of those who hitherto reveled in the pastime of continuously bashing and stigmatising Nigeria and Nigerians by tagging them with the toga of corruption with gusto, all in the effort to impress President Buhari whose ego they were massaging owing to his acclaimed zero tolerance for corruption, our country and country’s men/women were only rewarded, if you can refer to it as such, by trading places with India, as the new poverty headquarters of the world. And the branding of our country with that abhorrent epitaph happened after our economy descended into recession in 2016 which was more of a self-inflicted damage or own goal, than due to weak economic fundamentals, which really broke my heart.
Obviously, with the busting of the anti-corruption bubble and demystification of the likes of the currently suspended EFCC boss, lbrahim Magu, the Presidential Advisory Committee on Anti Corruption, Chairman, Itse Sagay and a host of other hawkish Aso Rock Villa apparatchiks that were beating the drums for anti-corruption war for Mr. President’s listening pleasure and possibly for him to dance, now replaced by the new Chief of Staff to the president, Prof. lbrahim Gambari and the forward looking, tested and tried economic policy wonks, the polity can now heave a sigh of relief.
Tellingly, President Buhari’s choice of meeting with the diplomats for the public presentation of the new policy, carries the imprimatur of his chief of staff, Gambari who, as a juggernaut in foreign policy and affairs, is leveraging the ability and capacity of that August body to catalyse that good tiding abroad.
Hopefully, the accomplished men and women now driving the new initiative who are manifestly desirous of nothing more than to prove their mettle and protect their already solid reputations, will remain in the front row with Mr. President, so that the administration may end well in 2023 in the best interest of the long suffering Nigerian masses, most of whom are currently at the point of asphyxiation, economically and security wise.
lf my prediction and presumption about the new economic team being on the saddle now is correct, then Nigeria can be said to be on the cusp of witnessing a positive new dawn. Prior to the current positive turn of events, the choice between whether to wage war against corruption or poverty was open to the government at its inception in 2015. It chose war against corruption over war against poverty under the wrong notion that corruption is the cause of poverty which may appear correct, but that’s darn wrong because poverty is often a product of, or a fall out of poor planning or lack of a winning plan, hence the nation’s economy is now in the doldrums. Furthermore, the contest between the choice of warring against corruption or poverty reminds me of the current hard choice of whether to weigh in, on the side of life or livelihood by going out to work or staying at home, in dealing with the crisis of COVID-19 pandemic. It also re-enacts the conflict of conscience on whether to slow down economic activities and associated pollution in recognition of the damage it does to the climate and its threat to life/mankind or sustain economic activities/livelihood and Damon or live with the consequences.
Happily, the administration has now chosen to wage war on poverty which is cheery news.
As a proof of our consistent warning to the authorities via opinion articles, drawing their attention to the fact that, with their zealous war against corruption, they were hurting the economy more than they were helping with their fantastic and unsubstantiated corruption claims, permit me to put things in context by citing and reproducing excerpts from four of my previously published articles on the subject.
The essays include (1) “Balancing The War Against Corruption and Economic Growth,” (2) “How Can President Buhari Move The Economy Forward Looking Backwards”, and (3) “Which is Hurting More, Corruption or The War Against It? as well as (4) “The Role of The Judiciary, State And Society.”
To further put things in perspective, allow me go on memory lane by recalling the first few paragraphs in the referenced articles commencing with the one titled, “Balancing The War Against Corruption And Economic Growth” published widely on 9 June, 2016 on both online newspapers such as the Cable and traditional newspapers.
It goes thus: “The most significant telltale of the economic melt down in Nigeria is the drop in GDP from between 5-6% annually, a couple of years ago to an all time low of 2.7%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS figures for 2015. A further downgrade to about 2.3% this year is being forecasted, particularly if there is no upswing in international price of crude oil, which is very unlikely.
The global rating agency, Fitch has also affirmed, NBS’s dismal growth outlook for Nigeria by downgrading Nigeria from BB- which is a negative forecast just as Standards and Poor, another acclaimed international rating agency has also stepped down Nigeria to B+ which is also negative. Both Fitch and S&P risk ratings are three and four steps respectively below investments grade which is a sad commentary on an economy which was one of the fastest growing in the world and the fastest in Africa only half a decade ago.
Not to be out done by the global agencies that are reckoning that Nigeria’s economic future may be impaired, the International Monetary Fund, IMF in a recent report -Article IV Consultationwhich is an outcome of IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde and her team’s recent visits for consultations with Nigeria, avers that “Nigerian economy is facing substantial challenges”.
The harm that negative risk ratings such as the ones listed above do to economies is to increase the cost of borrowing from sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds and portfolio equity funds abroad.
Unsurprisingly, all the aforementioned dismal economic outlooks are being attributed to the sudden drop in crude oil price which traded at over $100 between 2012-2014 but suddenly dropped by about 70% to between $30-40 since late 2015.
However, the injurious impact of the crash in oil price does not tell the whole story about the distress in Nigerian economy because the reality is that President Muhammadu Buhari’s fight against corruption has also, perhaps unintentionally, exacerbated the instability in the polity to the extent that the political tension is now having a contagion effect on the economy and as such it is taking an unintended toll.
The assertion above is premised on the fact that while new investment initiatives are not being taken, owing to the tough fiscal and monetary measures arising from the anti corruption war, existing businesses are grinding to a halt, due to the hiatus engendered by the uncertainties and disarray in the economy.
There are three significant and overlapping anti-corruption initiatives of govt that have become the triggers for the current economic doom and gloom, manifesting in Nigerian streets and cities as fuel queues, high cost of living and massive unemployment amongst the youths.
The first is the so-called Dasukigate -$2.1bn arms funds, allegedly converted into campaign slush funds and the ripple effect. The probe has sent jitters down the spines of both genuine and fraudulent businessmen and women engaged in defence and security sectors of the economy, such that even the non-guilty are afraid. That’s unsurprising because over 300 companies that did business with the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA) are being investigated by the dreaded Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) led by the fearsome Ibrahim Magu.
With such huge number of companies under scrutiny, the apprehension and uncertainty engendered have become contagious to the extent that others are now afraid to continue to do business, so they are adopting a wait-andsee attitude. The proposed one day workers’ strike by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) to forcefully bring the plight of workers bearing the excruciating pains of a collapsing economy to the attention of govt, is a testimony to the fact that the Nigerian situation is degenerating into a potential labour crisis and it is a result of the absence of defined fiscal policies.
Secondly, apart from security focused companies involved with ONSA that are being quizzed, oil/gas companies have also been under the gaze of anti graft agencies.
With the corruption ridden crude oil for refined products swap contract reviewed by the new Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Ibe Kachikwu and a new list of crude oil lifting firms drawn up, as well as a new template for importation of refined petroleum products replacing the former procedure, there is bound to be disruptions and the resultant consequence is the fuel queues on the streets. This perhaps explains why Kachikwu, who also doubles as the Group Managing Director of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), told Nigerians that he was not a magician who could wave a wand so that the embarrassing fuel queues would disappear over night. The straight talking Kachikwu’s narrative didn’t resonate well in the political circles, so he got lambasted by APC leader, Bola Tinubu for not being politically correct. Even though it should be clear to everybody that the fuel queues won’t go away till the month of May, when the new imports are expected to arrive as importers only just received allocation of foreign exchange, politicians and activists would rather Kachikwu apologised to Nigerians instead of telling the truth.
We do not need a soothsayer to inform us that the disruptive petroleum sector probes were bound to have consequences and barring plans to mitigate such fallouts – like govt having strategic reserves of fuel in different locations nationwide-the current fuel shortages were inevitable.
The simple truth is that companies (downstream and upstream) accused of short changing Nigerians through shady Oil Swap and opaque production sharing contracts, have been returning their loots and in the process, their treasuries have been running dry such that they are unable to sustain their operations like before. The net result is the downward scaling or complete shut down of some of the oil companies thereby further compounding the already dire unemployment situation in our country.