Eight Billion on a Small Globe
There was a small tremor on Tuesday last week when the United Nations declared that the world’s human population had hit 8 billion. At which hour, which minute and at which second, it did not say. It turned out that it was just a computer model projection. One expert said, “It is impossible to know precisely how many people are alive at any given moment. UN’s figures are based on models designed using census and other demographic data. It’s possible the world’s population passed 8 billion a year or two ago or will do so at some point over the next few years.”
Wow. So maybe we actually passed the milestone long ago and we did not realise it. I know some people who are happy at the news, because they do not believe that rapidly growing population is a problem. They believe population control is a Western scheme to degrade Third World nations culturally and religiously. Well, they should better think again because this human population “birthday” comes amidst much talk about climate change [witness this year’s
flood all over Nigeria], melting polar ice, rising sea levels threatening to drown islands and coastal cities, environmental destruction, disappearance of species, food shortages and high food prices, energy shortages and high prices and, in some countries, aging populations. Let us not list war and internal unrest, which could be secondary fall outs of population explosion.
The good news, such as it is, is that while world population is still growing, the rate of growth has slowed down, somehow. While human population reached 7 billion in 2011 and it took 11 years for it to reach 8 billion, we are only projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050 and only reach 10.4 billion during the 2080s. Even better, we are projected to remain at that level until 2100, according to the UN. By then there would have been at least eight UN Secretary Generals after Antonio Guterres, so we will not have anyone to hold responsible if the estimates turn out to be wrong.
But here is the clincher. Population growth will not happen evenly across the planet. Eight countries, out of the more than 200 in the world today, are expected to shoulder more than half of the projected world population increase between now and 2050. Five of these eight are in Africa [Sob! Sob!], namely Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo [DRC] and Tanzania. The other three are India, Pakistan and the Philippines.
What is our preparation for this explosion? Although Egypt is a serious country, given the way they dig up remains of Pharaohs and assemble them in splendid museums, I fear for it because most of its population is lined up along the Nile valley. Which could also have less water by the time Ethiopia finishes damming the Blue Nile. Ethiopia has made big economic strides in recent decades but the trouble in Tigray region is hardly a good sign for its future. DR Congo is dirt poor right now, after nearly three decades of strife since the fall of Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997. What will it do with more people, when it can’t cater for the ones it now has?
What about Nigeria? Wonder of wonders, by 2050 we will overtake USA and become