NOT THIS YEAR’S OFFENCE

fanatical than the Imperial Japanese Army, with its world-famous kamikaze tactics and the seppuku traditions of its commanders? In any case, we just entered a New Year; what is the idea behind importing the grouse of ten years ago into this year? That your leader Mohammed Yusuf was summarily executed? That was long ago! The policemen who did it, most of them are out of the force by now. Half of Nigerians today are under 25 years of age and do not even know why you guys took up arms in the first place.

I also have a message for bandits and kidnappers. You bandits, you have no notion of a sustainable business practice? You have driven farmers from their fields, stopped millions of people from travelling and drove untold numbers of people from their homes into refugee camps or outright destitution. How do you expect to continue to reap from their labour and become rich overnight? You kidnappers, I suppose you do not know about the laws of action and reaction. Due to your nefarious activities on the roads, you drove the elite into air travel, where you cannot reach them, so you grab very poor farmers and petty traders from commercial vehicles and ask them to pay ransom in millions of naira. Can you squeeze water out of stone? People who are already pummeled by high fuel prices and reduced farming and trading activities, partly caused by you, and you still expect them to make huge ransom payments?

Almost the same message for IPOB. I have never heard a more dumb idea than Monday Sit At Home, especially when traders are the most dynamic economic group in South East Nigeria, where you hope to reestablish the State of Biafra. Even worse is killing people in order to enforce Sit At Home. “All the blood we are shearing…” A million people died in May 1967 to January 1970 and if that was not enough river of blood to ensure Biafra’s survival, how much more blood must we shed in order to revive it? Can’t we leave last year’s problems at the steps of December 31 and not hurl sticks at the monkey in the middle of the dry season?

Trade unionists are another boiling cauldron with no notion of leaving last year’s issues to last year. Between NLC, TUC and their affiliates, they have already collected a long list of items for a future “total, indefinite” strike. They include fuel price, cost of living, mickry. The prevailing practice is to embark on projects based on convenience, political exigency, and personal interest and wish they could translate to holistic, sustainable development.

The first major drawback of relying on wishful thinking as a state strategy is that it often leads to overestimating the ease of implementing policies or achieving specific goals. Policies may need a realistic understanding of the challenges and complexities involved in successful implementation. The runaway inflation and the problem of insecurity in Nigeria are good examples. From all indications, the previous administration misdiagnosed the national security threat posed by nonstate actors, terrorists, and bandits as just a herder vs farmer conflict. This misdiagnosis created a problem of resource application. The government misdirected both human and capital resources to resolve this conflict.

As seen in recent times, the insecurity issues in Nigeria are multifaceted, hydra-headed, and humongous compared to a linear causal narrative of herder vs. farmers’ clashes. Nigeria cannot wish away insecurity. We must have a realistic diagnosis of the security situation, understand the multidimensional aspects of the problem, and put together a robust, actionable strategic plan to achieve the goals we set for our national security. Anything short of this will amount to reinventing the wheels and will not augur well with Nigeria.

Besides, unrealistic optimism results in the misallocation of resources - if the government expects positive outcomes based on wishful thinking rather than a thorough analysis, it may allocate resources inefficiently, leading to suboptimal results. The 2024 National Budget and most state government budgets have recently drawn criticisms from Nigerians, civil societies, and the media. Some aspects of the budget were either preposterous or the amount assigned needed to be revised. Although budgets do not represent a national development plan or strategy, they show how and on what all the expected income of the federal or state is to be spent. If the budget is full of frivolities and non-essentials, how

NLC President, Joe Ajaero

new minimum wage, hike in electricity tariffs, unfulfilled government promises and beating of NLC President. So, you mean anytime someone smacks Joe Ajaero’s balding head, even if it is over a community land dispute or a Local Government councillorship election, all the workers in Nigeria must go on strike? Even when it costs the country nearly two trillion naira for every few days of no work? You Mr. Ajaero, I hear that your personal ambition is to surpass Mr. Arthur Scargill, who led British coal miners on a 12 months’ strike action in 1984-85. Some say you also want to surpass

President Bola Tinubu

can we allocate resources effectively to bring about development in Nigeria?

Furthermore, the economic consequences of wishful thinking as a strategy are all around us: cost of living crisis, collapse in the value of the Naira to USD, food insecurity, infrastructural decay,and an increasing perception of economic doom that permeates the system. Government strategic thinking, planning, and determined implementation could have given us better outcomes. This planning requires realistic assessments of the country’s economic potential and challenges. Wishful thinking leads to economic policies not aligning with

George Meaney, who was President of the American Federation of Labour/Congress of Industrial Organisations [AFL/CIO] for 57 years.

I also have a word for Yahoo boys, who sit in front of desk and laptop computers and fiddle with smartphones, day in day out, looking for ways to beat banks’ billion-naira IT security systems, hack into other people’s accounts and make away with their life savings. Look, you guys are really smart, smarter that pinstripe suited bank MDs and EDs. Pray, why must you steal a few trifling millions from bank the actual economic conditions, potentially resulting in economic downturns or crises - the public is disillusioned and is quickly losing confidence in the government.

Relying on wishful thinking can hinder effective long-term planning and jeopardize the country’s future stability and growth. At this auspicious time when this administration is wooing foreign investors, it behoves the government to provide a clear vision, strategic direction, and goals and implement policies and actions that will inspire confidence that Nigeria is on a trajectory to developmental growth in the midterm to long term. customers’ accounts? Why not instead apply your IT skills and invent applications such as Facebook, Yahoo, Google, Uber or Interswitch that could fetch you billions? You saw Mike Zuckerberg when he recently came here. All he had on was jeans trousers, a rumpled t-shirt, a large head and tousled hair, yet he thought up something that fetched him billions. Sure you guys can also do it. Stop importing last year’s failed solutions into the New Year and throwing Yahoo sticks at people’s accounts in the middle of our economic dry season.

Another word for young and no-so-young Nigerians who want to “Japa,” this country’s 21st Century craze. Back in my primary school days, I read in an Economic Geography textbook about the Mexican “wetbacks,” men who swam across the Rio Grande into Texas and other southern American states. After more than 50 years, their number has only increased. Donald Trump’s wall has not deterred them. Americans, who are themselves descendants of illegal immigrants from Europe who hit the shores without obtaining visas from Native American chiefs who owned the land, have now erected all kinds of barricades to stop Latino migrants. In our own case, Nigerian youths try to enter Europe not across a small river but across the formidable Sahara Desert and the equally daunting Mediterranean Sea, in dinghies operated by descendants of Barbary pirates, dodging NATO naval vessels, many of them drowning in the waves, there to lie near sunken Roman artifacts, sunken Mesopotamian trading vessels and downed World War Two Axis and Allied warships.

My last word today is for jilted lovers and those who kill because of envy. Last year, we had many cases in Nigeria of young wives killing husbands or otherwise severing critical parts of their bodies, allegedly because of forced marriage; wives bathing the children of co-wives in hot vegetable oil; and of jilted men murdering their former fiancées. Look here, young Nigerian men and women. If our generation had used similar tactics whenever we were jilted or forced into marriage, would there have been anyone around by now to give birth to you? If you were jilted last year, begin the New Year on a clean slate. Don’t hide in a dark alley and attempt to strangle a former fiancée. It is worse than hurling a stick at the monkey in the middle of the dry season.

Some federal parastatals, state governments and LGA leaders have put out their strategic plans, and I commend these leaders. I must specifically single out the Jigawa state government for commendation. Through my interaction with state functionaries, I noticed that the state and MDAs have their strategic plans and KPIs, and sector leaders have been made to sign performance agreements. Several policies have been developed to facilitate the state’s strategic goals. The state is ready for business!

Based on the prevalent transactional and knee-jerk approach to development intervention at all levels of government, I make these few recommendations and suggestions on moving from “wishful thinking” as a state strategy to a robust strategy that is fit for purpose and easy to implement. First, State strategies must be evidence-based. It should be based on thorough research, data, and evidence. There is no room for hunches, guesswork, or mere intuition. Second, these governments should communicate their strategies transparently and be accountable for the outcomes. Open communication about challenges and setbacks can help manage public expectations and build trust.

Third, strategic actions and policies must undergo comprehensive risk assessments. This involves identifying potential obstacles, considering worst-case scenarios, and developing contingency plans. A situation where policies are not adequately thought through may devastate people’s economy and quality of life, for example, the ill-fated Naira Redesign. Finally, strategies should be adaptable to changing circumstances, adjusting based on real-time feedback and evolving challenges.

In conclusion, while optimism and hope are essential, they should be complemented by realistic assessments and evidence-based strategies. Wishful thinking, when used as the sole basis for state strategies, can lead to adverse consequences, and governments must adopt a balanced and pragmatic approach to addressing the challenges and opportunities facing Nigeria.