‘LIES, DAMNED LIES, AND STATISTICS’
services. Above all, he wants the public to demand the provision of more amenities that will tackle poverty rather than weaponise the “poverty capital” claim that is, at best, “an estimate”.
There is also the interesting anecdote of a Briton who asked Fashola if there were banks in Nigeria. He found the question frivolous and uninformed. Fashola took time to explain to the man that Nigeria has over 20 banks, with many of them ranked among the world’s Top 1000 by reputable institutions and publications at various times. The man apologised but explained his question: “I was intrigued by what I read online about the federal government and state governments distributing money in Abuja. Whenever I encounter such a headline, I am left contemplating why states must convene in Abuja… and collect cash. Could this not be facilitated through the banking system?”
The senior lawyer takes time to explain the revenue allocation mechanisms. The constitution and relevant laws are very clear on the membership of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC): minister of finance (chair), commissioners of finance of the 36 states, two persons appointed by the president, and accountant general of the federation (AcGF). Governors are not members. Two meetings are convened monthly, the first by the AcGF and accountants general of the 36 states where they receive and verify statements of income from revenue-generating agencies, and the second by the FAAC where metrics are used to calculate the revenue to be shared by the three tiers.
(I would like to quickly insert this here: what the three tiers share at FAAC is “federation” — not “federal” — allocation. The use of the word “federal” is part of what distorts debates on our nationhood. Using the word “federal” allocation suggests that the money is coming from the “federal” government to the states and councils. This is incorrect. The money belongs to the federation, and federal government is just a tier of the federation. The constitution mandates that all revenues collected on behalf of the federation be paid into the consolidated revenue fund (CRF) from where they are shared by the three tiers. This little detail is sometimes lost in public discourse.)
There are several stimulating essays for those who are sincerely interested in discussing Nigeria’s development trajectory. We are fond of saying Nigeria produces only 4,000MW to power a $448 billion economy. Fashola thinks we are missing something. South Africa with 58,000MW has a lower GDP of $351 billion. This is not adding up. “By accepting the erroneous figure of 4,000MW, we have overlooked the substantial amount of electricity generated by solar power, industrial and individual diesel generators and independent power producers across the country,” he asserts. Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the minister of power, recently said Nigeria gets an additional 40,000MW from generators.
What is Fashola’s point, though? He believes off-grid power is usually discounted but it is valuable. He lists the power projects executed in Lagos state when he was governor. They are off-grid but their outputs outstrip actual generation in The Gambia. He also lists the off-grid projects he inaugurated across the country when he was minister of power. The Rural Electrification Agency (REA), owned by the federal government, is undertaking solar projects in rural areas across the country but the outputs are not included in the assessment of total Nigeria’s power supply. Basically, Fashola is saying we use incomplete data in making categorical statements on power supply and GDP in Nigeria.
He says an assessment and redefinition of the problem led to the introduction of the mini-grid policy, with residential estates and small-scale factories encouraged to generate their own energy instead an endless wait for connection to the national grid which would require laying cables across thousands of kilometres, among several other costs. Sticking to popular sentiments about the state of power supply in Nigeria would not have helped, he maintains, also contending that “it is not necessarily accurate, nor is it academically rigorous, to attribute all developmental challenges to the paucity of electricity”. Even if we have 24/7 power supply, manufacturing still faces big challenges.
No doubt, this book will invite controversy. There may be questions as to what we should be more concerned with — waiting in pain and in vain for the accurate stats or confronting the largely unaddressed stark reality even without reliable data? More so, if the popularly held datasets are not realistic, why doesn’t he provide the accurate figures? If the housing deficit is not 28 million, what is it then? His approach is that we should wait for the census so that we can be more scientific, but the last one was in 2006 and we don’t know when the next will be. There may also be critical comments of some submissions which many will view as an attempt to offer excuses for government failures.
In all, I have three take-aways from this book. One, a major problem confronting us is the misrepresentation of the problem — “often in bombastic and hyperbolic terms” — which diverts our attention from an accurate diagnosis, to paraphrase Fashola. We will thus be looking in the wrong direction in trying to solve the problem. Two, how can we assess and address our challenges decisively if we are led more by sensational hyperbole and less by verifiable evidence? We need to interrogate certain assumptions, datasets and analyses that we have adopted in making policy decisions. Three, beware: hyperbole has the tendency to make us downplay our little wins.